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WP3 – Alternative Scenarios of Growth Trends in Road Transport (Passenger, Freight)

This report provides moderate and optimistic scenarios for the evolution of passenger and freight transport, based on socio-economic trends. It outlines current transport patterns, forecasts, and specific growth projections for different country groups. The analysis connects transport trends with GDP, population, and local factors. The study focuses on road transport dominance, including projections for car, bus/coach, and rail passenger traffic, as well as freight movements. Key variables shaping transport demand and supply are examined, offering insights into future transport landscape developments.

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WP3 – Alternative Scenarios of Growth Trends in Road Transport (Passenger, Freight)

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  1. WP3 – Alternative Scenarios of GrowthTrends in Road Transport (Passenger, Freight) D. Tsamboulas External Consultant

  2. Introduction to WP3 • The focus of this report was to provide reference scenarios to frame the general evolution of transport demand and supply. • Such a framework does not necessarily require the definition of mathematical models linking socio-economic variables (inputs) and traffic levels (outputs), assigned on a network. • The moderate and optimistic scenarios for socio-economic and transport demand described in this report highlight the most important medium and long-term trends, given the past and present development of key variables

  3. Basic drawings of WP3 • GDP will continue to increase steadily • Population will decline slightly from around 2015 • Passenger traffic trend includes the increased dependency on the car against other modes like bus/ coach and rail • Freight transport main trends show dominance of road transport. • Such general trends must be taken with caution, due to significant differences between regions

  4. Transport framework • Based on existing studies and available data of transport characteristics and “movements” of each country group,current transport trends were identified. • data from 1990-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 were employed to establish current transport trends • employed approach to trend analysis in forecasting involves the use of growth curves • Connection of transport trends with socio-economic trends • Transport forecasting, with 2000 as the base year • where projections were available they were used (TINA, TIRS, SCENARIOS, CODE-TEN, STAC-TEN, REBIS, WORLDBANK, UNECE, EC etc.)

  5. Country groups n

  6. Transport trends of Group 1-Connection with socio-economic variables Total Passenger Traffic Growth = GDP Growth Total Freight Traffic Growth = (1,625) * (GDP Growth)

  7. Transport trends of Group 2- Connection with socio-economic variables Car Passenger Traffic Growth=(1,55)*[(GDP/Population)Growth] Coach Passenger Traffic Growth=(-1,68)*[(GDP/Population)Growth] Freight Traffic by Road Growth =GDP Growth

  8. Transport trends of Group 3- Connection with socio-economic variables Local traffic: 1.25*(GDP Growth) Overall traffic (including international): (Traffic multiplicator)*(GDP Growth) Where traffic multiplicator can be: 1.68, 2.10 and 2.6

  9. Transport Scenarios • Forecasting on group-country level • Separately for passenger and freight • Two scenarios • Moderate and optimistic • See tables next

  10. Table 2Group 1Countries - Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road –car and bus/coaches-) Moderate Scenario * Billion pax-kms

  11. Table 3Group 1Countries - Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road –car and bus/coaches-) Optimistic Scenario * Billion pax-kms

  12. Table 4Group 1Countries - Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario * Billion tone-kms

  13. Table 5Group 1Countries - Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario * Billion tone-kms

  14. Table 6Group 2Countries – Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario

  15. Table 7Group 2Countries – Passenger Demand Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario

  16. Table 8Group 2Countries – Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Moderate Scenario

  17. Table 9Group 2Countries – Freight Demand Forecasts (Road) Optimistic Scenario

  18. Table 10a Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 2 Countries (Moderate scenario) *Projections per country, separately for passenger and freight impossible, but trend forecasting of total traffic, was relatively easier, since TINA had produced projections up to 2015 Table 10b Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 2 Countries (Optimistic scenario) *Projections per country, separately for passenger and freight impossible, but trend forecasting of total traffic, was relatively easier, since TINA had produced projections up to 2015

  19. Table 11Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 3 Countries (Moderate scenario) n **Due to limited data no specific projections were made, but a general hypothesis says that these countries will probably follow the rest Group 3 countries

  20. Table 12Accumulated Road Traffic Growth in Group 3 Countries (Optimistic scenario) n **Due to limited data no specific projections were made, but a general hypothesis says that these countries will probably follow the rest Group 3 countries

  21. Road Traffic- Coaches Specificities • Group 1: • average annual increase of 0,1% (starting with 0,03% in the year 2000 and reaching a 0,16% increase in 2020) • Group 2: • average annual increase of 0,1% (starting with -0,03% in the year 2000 and reaching a 0,23% increase in 2020 • Group 3: • a similar course with that of Group 2countries • The above are based on a moderate scenario. The optimistic is not dramatically different though.

  22. Conclusion for Coaches Traffic • Passenger traffic is expected to grow but bus/coach modal share and traffic volumes are not expected to change dramatically up to 2020 • Regarding the present decrease in public transport volumes, this is due to the high increase in car ownership and usage as well as in the development of air transport industry in all countries. • Regarding the minor increases expected in the future, these would probably be a result of the EC policy objectives that have been defined for countries of Group 1 and 2,in order to diminish the environmental consequences of transport and bring about a shift in transport use from road to rail, water and public passenger transport.

  23. Road Traffic- Trucks Specificities • Group 1: • moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an average annual increase of 2,7% (starting with 2,67% in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,82% increase in 2020). • optimistic scenario gives an average annual increase of 3,29% (starting with 3,2% in the year 2000 and reaching a 3,38% increase in 2020) • Group 2: • moderate forecast on trucks traffic predicts an average annual increase of 2,32% (starting with 2,19% in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,44% increase in 2020). • optimistic scenario gives an average annual increase of 2,63% (starting with 2,49% in the year 2000 and reaching a 2,77% increase in 2020) • For Group 3, current or future modal shares are not analytically available but the underlying trend shows a more rapid growth in road than in rail freight transport

  24. Conclusion for Trucks Traffic • Freight traffic is expected to grow and trucks “share” in absolute numbers-not as modal share- is expected to grow up to 2020, both in moderate and in the optimistic trend scenario.

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