The Economic Crisis in East Asia and the Pacific Islands (EAP):

1. The Economic Crisis in East Asiaand the Pacific Islands (EAP): Monitoring the Impact on Children: The UNICEF EAPRO Experience Dr. Mahesh Patel, UNICEF EAPRO, Brighton, March 2010

2. Average annual growth rates (GDP, constant prices) – 1997 Crisis to Now Source: IMF, September 2009

3. Rationale for real-time monitoring in East Asia and the Pacific • Lack of substantive data on social impact of the1997/98 East Asian economic crisis • UNICEF EAPRO commissioned special issue of Global Social Policy to explore potential impacts of this crisis on children based on lessons of the 1997/98 Crisis: • Concept note proposing methodology to monitor trends in health, education and social budgets using sentinel sites was part of this issue • Countries where idea has been endorsed thus far: Lao PDR, Mongolia, Indonesia, Pacific Island Countries, Viet Nam • Slightly different versions in Indonesia and Viet Nam

4. UNICEF EAPRO methodology – Key Ideas • Education: • Possible indicators: attendance; teacher attendance; school budget receipts, including parental contributions. • Sample sites – numbers could be collected from sentinel schools in selected vulnerable areas, weekly or monthly. Health: • Outpatient visits, total ante-natal care visits, health center user fee receipts - all collected and collated, weekly or monthly. • Sentinel sites often already exist for notifiable diseases and to warn of epidemics (also in HIV). • Social Budgets: • Simplest :Government strategic intent to “increase”, “hold the line” or “reduce social expenditure” • More demanding: Comparison of fiscal budget years for sectors, data on total national disbursements and planned expenditures; Public Expenditure Reviews

5. Country examples of real-time monitoring

6. UNICEF initiatives (1): LPDR • National consultation on monitoring the potential impact of the crisis on children in Feb 2009, following regional conference • Government asked and UNICEF produced concept note, consulting relevant in-line ministries • Concept note proposes monitoring 4 areas: • Consumer price data: Already being collected in 8 sentinel sites (markets areas) across the country • Education: Attendance – monthly, from 1 primary school per province • Health: Monthly data from 18-27 health centres nationally on – weekly/monthly outpatient visits and total ante-natal care visits • Child protection: Number of street children and number of village children in orphanages periodically – child protection section, with a local NGO, already collecting some primary data from focus group to assess impact of crisis on streeth youths/parents • Health and education monitoring being finalized

7. UNICEF initiatives (2): Mongolia • Deputy Prime Minister’s Office leading the initiative, with technical and financial support from UNICEF- EAPRO concept note adopted and adapted to suit unique context • Pilot just completed (December 2009): Info collected from15 sentinel sites – 250-280 HHs – using existing administrative systems; Pulse survey of 200 HHs; FGDs, IDIs and KIIs • Sites selected based on poverty maps and poorest provinces/districts selected from country’s 5 regions • For each selected district/province sentinel sites included: school, dormitory, FGP and/or health center, police station, convenience store • 15 indicators monitored: health; education; livelihoods; protection and market prices of food and essential items

8. UNICEF initiatives (3): PICs • UNICEF helped initiate and plays leading role in joint-UN monitoring scheme that is underway • 8 PICs taking part: Fiji, Solomon Is., Tonga, Vanuatu, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) • 2-3 sentinel monitoring sites in each country, covering rural and urban settings, tracking services and communities • Schools, hospitals/health centers, pharmacies, food markets and police posts • 30 HHs served by facilities in sites will also be monitored with a small pulse-HH survey and FGDs – therefore 60-90 HHs/country • Quarterly data collection throughout 2009-11 • Sentinel sites selected by National Steering Committees

9. UNICEF initiatives (3): PICs (contd…) • 4 countries have already completed their first round of data collection and preliminary estimates are available: • Tuvalu: 90 HHs monitored – HHs selected (40 in Funafuti, 30 in Nanumea and 20 in Nukufetau) using 2004/05 Tuvalu Households Income and Expenditure Survey • 71.43 % of surveyed families said increase in food prices accounted for food budget constraints • Tonga: 56 HHs interviewed – 29 from urban, 27 rural • 60% of those interviewed reported experiencing more difficulty in paying school related expenses compared to last year • Solomon Islands: 96 HHs interviewed – 30 urban, 66 rural • 33% of all reported more difficulty in paying school related expenses compared to this time last year • Vanuatu: 90 HHs interviewed

10. UNICEF initiatives (4): Viet Nam • UNICEF and UNDP helped VASS develop concept note on Rapid Impact Monitoring (RIM) of vulnerable communities in April 2009 • RIM being undertaken in 10 selected sentinel sites nationally: • 5 rural; 5 urban • 2 industrial zones; 2 urban areas with many construction workers; 1 rural/coastal tourism site; 1 craft village; 1 rural site with substantial emigration; 1 rural, agriculture exporting site and 1 rural site with high concentration of poor HHs • 2 rounds conducted so far: March/April 2009 and August-September 2009; government has not shared consolidated report yet

11. UNICEF initiatives (5): Indonesia • UNICEF and WFP developed and piloted monitoring system to track impact of high food prices at the household level in 4 provinces, including Greater Jakarta, in 2008 • Government adopted this methodology and set up a Food and Nutrition Security Monitoring System (FNSMS) in June 2009 • 4 provinces covered: East Java, NTT (Nusa Tengara Timur), Central Sulawesi and West Kalimantan • 20 vulnerable districts– 5 per provinces; 1000 HHs • Districts selected base on 2005 food insecurity atlas • Currently in pilot phase – first set of results in: • 14% HHs food insecure; 30% vulnerable • School absenteeism found in 21% of HHs with at least 1 school age child • 56% of surveyed HHs experienced difficulties due to ↑ food prices, ↑ health expenditures, lack of cash etc

12. Final thoughts Key Strengths • Early warning system to detect changes/trends as a crisis evolves • Provides data on vulnerable populations living in particular geographical, environmental and economic conditions • To monitor trends and changes over short time intervals within these populations • Flexibility in altering methodology Challenges • Reliable results can only be achieved if appropriate indicators are selected • Not reliable estimates of prevalence: • danger for the media and other users to interpret data as ‘national’ • Caution in reporting “baseline” data • No international guidelines for sample size, indicators, definitions of vulnerability etc available yet

13. Sentinel sites and Surveys: Brief Descriptions Sentinel Sites • A number of sites (clinics, hospitals, police stations etc) are selected based on specific criteria • A limited number of indicators for study/monitoring are selected • Site staff trained to collect data. • Data collection on-going • Possibilities for quick data turnaround time • Supplemented by other data collection activities MICS • A household survey • Typically representative at the national level but also, depending on scope, at smaller sub-national areas • Typically conducted by the national statistical offices using especially trained staff • Collects data on indicators across all programmes • Conducted periodically – average every 5 years

14. Sentinel sites and Surveys: Key Uses of Data Sentinel Sites • Early warning system to detect changes • To provide localised data on vulnerable populations living in particular geographical, environmental and economic conditions • To monitor trends and changes over short time intervals within these populations MICS • Provide representative data with known statistical precision • To monitor trends for indicators which are subject to both long and short-term changes • To measure associations between variables i.e. household wealth, educational level of mother

15. Sentinel sites and Surveys: Inappropriate uses of data Sentinel Sites • Caution on reporting on ‘baseline’ data. • If methodology is not clearly understood there is a danger for the media and other users to interpret data as ‘national’. MICS • Data not always reliable for rare events or for disaggregated data. • Cannot determine causation and data may not be sufficient to answer many important policy questions

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17. Overview • Asia expected to be first region to pull out of economic slump and even lead global recovery. China's role is particularly crucial. • Rebound clearly happening but need to careful when talking about sustainable recovery • Important to note countries have been affected differently by the crisis. Rough classification, based on impact and ability to respond: • Barely affected (China, Indonesia): Not affected much because of relatively low export to GDP ratio; large domestic market; diversified exports • Affected but strong comebacks (Thailand, Malaysia): Hard hit, but solid fiscal positions to aid recovery • Hard hit and/or minimal capacity to respond (Cambodia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Islands): LICs and/or commodity exporters face challenges • .

18. Overview • Asia expected to be first region to pull out of economic slump and even lead global recovery. China's role is particularly crucial. • Rebound clearly happening but need to careful when talking about sustainable recovery • Important to note countries have been affected differently by the crisis. Rough classification, based on impact and ability to respond: • Barely affected (China, Indonesia): Not affected much because of relatively low export to GDP ratio; large domestic market; diversified exports • Affected but strong comebacks (Thailand, Malaysia): Hard hit, but solid fiscal positions to aid recovery • Hard hit and/or minimal capacity to respond (Cambodia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Pacific Islands): LICs and/or commodity exporters face challenges • .

19. Other potential and observed outcomes • Child and maternal health: • Wasting among poor urban children in Cambodia increased from 6 % in 2005 to 15.9 % in 2008, primarily due to rising food prices. • Education: • Evidence of households of migrant workers in Viet Nam taking children out of school and/or delaying school payments, or contemplating these as coping strategies. • Similar news coming from Cambodia and the Pacific Island Countries. • Education expenditures seem to have been maintained. • Job losses and income poverty: • 20-25 million migrant workers in China were retrenched. • World Bank estimates 10 mi. people in EAP who would have escaped poverty this year will not be able to do so. • Reduced Official Development Assistance: • UNCTAD figures show cumulative drop of 30% of ODA by the 5th year of a banking crisis in a donor country.