The Third Wave of Democracy: Exploring the Causes and Effects of Regime Change

1. Master of Science inINTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT Lesson 1: Dott. / Prof. Daniel Pommier Vincelli

2. The third wave of democracy: the end of the cold war INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

3. The third wave of democracy: the end of the cold war • In the years 1975-1989 democracy gained the momentum ad leading political system. Authoritarianism and single part rules entered an unforeseen crisis. A new wave of democracy changed the political system towards the end of the century. • It is a phenomenon of politics that similar events often happen simultaneously in different countries. How to explain this: single cause, parallel development, “snowballing,” prevailing nostrum (i.e. different problems being addressed with similar solutions) • Focus of this study is on the third democratization wave. In general, causes of democratization are varied. No single factor is sufficient, and no single factor necessary, to explain regime change. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

4. Causal Factors of the “waves” of democracy • 1stWave: Economic development, industrialization, urbanization, growth of middle class, victory of Western Allies in WWI, dismantling of empires (*economic and social factors) • 2nd Wave: Democracy imposed by Allies after WWII, effects of Allied victory, de-colonialization (*Political and military factors). •  3rd Wave: 5 Patterns of Regime Change: • Cyclical – alternation b/w democracy and authoritarianism, where alternation actually begins to function as country’s political system (in lieu of alternation b/w two political parties) • Second-Try Pattern – Weak democracy gives way to authoritarianism, then replaced by stronger democracy. • Interrupted Democracy – temporary suspension of democratic system, then resumed. • Direct Transition – characterized 1st wave of democratization • Dec-olonialization Pattern – characterized 2nd wave INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

5. Changes and variables in democratization • What changes in independent variables in the 1960s and 1970s did produce the dependent variable of a democratizing regime change in the 1970s and 1980s? • 5 changes evaluated by this study: • 1. Deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems (Post WWII – prevailing democratic “ethos” developed throughout the world. Even authoritarian regimes increasingly used democratic rhetoric to justify their legitimacy) • 2. Global economic growth of the 1960s (Correlation b/w wealth and democracy indicates that democratic transitions should occur in countries at middle level of development.) • 3. Changing doctrine of the Catholic Church (Correlation between Western Christianity, esp. Protestantism, and democracy.) • 4. Changes in the policies of external actors (By late 1980s, major sources of power and influence – Vatican, European Community (EC), U.S. and Soviet Union – were promoting liberalization and democratization.) • 5. Snowballing effects (Successful democratization occurs in one country and this encourages democratization in other countries. ) INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

6. End of the cold war • The United States • As of 1974 – shift to promoting human rights in foreign policy. Carter administration strengthened this commitment post 1977. Reagan administration introduced promotion of democratic change as major foreign policy goal and created the National Endowment for Democracy (summarizer’s note: this is the Endowment that created NDI, where I used to work, and IRI, as well as the business and labor solidarity groups whose acronyms are escaping me). • US democracy promotion efforts included: diplomatic action, economic pressure, material support for democratic opposition forces, military action and multilateral diplomacy. • Conclusion: Difficult to make definitive evaluation of US role, but US support was clearly instrumental to democratization process in many countries (see text for many specific examples). • The Soviet Union • Even more dramatic policy shift than in the case of the US. Gorbachev revoked the Brezhnev doctrine and conveyed to Eastern European governments that Soviet gov’t would not act to maintain their existing communist dictatorships. Opened the way for ouster of communist leaders, elections, opening of frontiers w/Western Europe, and market-oriented reforms. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

7. The European Union • EC officially formed in 1969, first expansion in 1973. To be a member, countries had to be democratic. Membership also helped prevent regression to authoritarianism. (Greece joined in 1981, Spain and Portugal in 1986). • Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), Helsinki Final Act influenced development of human rights and democracy in Europe, particularly by helping to foster openings in Eastern Europe. • These were the general causes of the 3rd wave of democratization, quite different from causes of the first two waves. Relative significance of these causes varied by region and evolved as the 3rd wave progressed. Emergence of social, economic and external conditions favorable to democracy is necessary, but not sufficient, to produce democracy: political leaders have to be willing to take the risk of democracy to make it happen. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

8. Fourth wave? • Between 1970 and 2010, the number of democracies in the world had increased from 35 to 120 (or 60% of the world’s countries). • First Wave of Democracy: 1820s to early 20th century, as Europe and the United States opened up their political franchises. It’s a slow and clumsy wave, with periods of recession. It’s accepted to have peaked and receded during the interwar period. • Second Wave: After World War II into the late 1960s before receding. • Third Wave of Democracy: 1970 (Spain, Portugal, then Latin American countries, then Asia, then the collapse of Communism). Arguably receded in the 2000’s. • The “Fourth Wave” is the less compelling label for the Arab Spring. • The process of regime change that has taken place since 1991 in the post-Soviet space, combined with the phenomena that occurred later in the Balkans and Mediterranean Africa have undermined the certainties of the supporters of transitology. Nevertheless, some scholars have suggested a “fourth wave” of democratization. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT