Trends and Future of Sustainable Development 10.6.2011 Francesca Allievi and Jenny Turunen http://ffrc.utu.fi/

1. Land use for bioenergy production – assessing the production potentials and the assumptions of EU bioenergy policy Trends and Future of SustainableDevelopment10.6.2011Francesca Allievi and Jenny Turunenhttp://ffrc.utu.fi/

2. Contents • Introduction • EU bioenergy policy, the assumptions it is based on and critique • Overview of bioenergy potential estimations • Conclusions

3. Introduction • Bioenergy is actively promoted by the EU and U.S. as a means to fight climate change and peak oil. • Bioenergy from cultivated biomasses requires a lot of land  conflicts with other uses for land; food production, nature conservation etc. • No consensus about the ecological benefits of bioenergy, especially liquid transport biofuels: research shows negative energy balance and increased GHG emissions • Potentials for bioenergy production are calculated in various ways, which produce a wide range of outcomes

4. EU bioenergy targets • EU targets: by 2020, 20% of the total energy and 10% of the transport fuel used in EU comes from renewable sources. • Three important drivers: peak oil, climate change and the dependency of the European economy on transport sector. • Transport sector accounts for more than 30 %of total energy consumption in EU and is one of the main reasons for the EU failing to meet the Kyoto targets

5. Arguments used to justify bioenergy promotion • The EU arguments that bioenergy is sustainable and beneficial, because it will: • Reduce Co2 emissions, based on the idea that bioenergy is carbon neutral • Increase energy security in Europe due to less dependence on imported fossil energy • Boost rural development in industrialised and developing countries by diversifying the production base and creating new employment in the rural areas

6. Critique of the EU assumptions • Ambiguousboundaries of the life cycle: IncreasedCo2 emissionsfromdirect and indirectlandusechangeandprocessing and transportation of the endproduct • Energy security: landavailability, already in 2006 Germany imported 60% of the biomassitused for energy • Ruraldevelopment: most of the potential is seen in developingcountries, where the productionhappens in largescaleplantationsfewemploymentopportunities and poorworkingconditions • Food versusfuel –debate: competition on land and the crops rising food prices

7. Bioenergy potentialestimations: demand-driven and resourcefocusedstudies • A demand-driven assessment is one that analyses the competitiveness of biomass based electricity and biofuels, or estimates the amount of biomass required to meet exogenous targets on climate neutral energy supply • A resource-focused assessment focuses on the total bioenergy resource base and the competition between different uses of the resources.

8. Bioenergy estimation – theoretical, technical, economic and implementationpotential • Theoretical: describes the theoretically usable physical energy supply in a given region in a certain time span. It is solely defined by physical limits and thus represents the upper limit of the energy supply contribution theoretically feasible. For the evaluation of the real availability of biomass the theoretical potential is thus of no practical relevance. • Technical: part of the theoretical potential that can be used given current technical possibilities. Takes into account structural, ecological (e.g. nature conservation areas) and other non-technical restrictions. Describes the possible contribution of renewable energy to the satisfaction of the energy demand from a technical perspective, depending on time and location. Less subject to fluctuations than the economic potential. Continues…

9. Bioenergy estimation – theoretical, technical, economic and implementationpotential …Continues • Economic: part of the technical potential that is economically exploitable in the context of given current basic conditions. • Implementation potential: refers to the expected actual contribution, usually lower than the economic potential. Heavily affected by policy and can even be greater than the economic potential, if for example the option for using renewable energy is subsidised (e.g. market introductionprogramme). • Summary of bioenergy supply estimations in 2050 from Berndes et al. (2003) and Thrän et al. (2010)

11. Conclusions • Bioenergy production, and especially agroindustrial production of biofuels is under heavy criticism: Does not reduce GHG emissions, causes serious environmental damage and social injustice and is a very expensive • The calculations of bioenergy potentials show that industrialised countries will not be able to cover their bioenergy needs domestically  Massive imports from developing countries needed • Promoting biofuels as a feasible option for replacing fossil fuels gives the impression that the industrialised countries are postponing addressing the critical question of how to radically reduce the consumption of energy and other natural resources in the western societies.

12. THANK YOU! francesca.allievi@utu.fi jenny.turunen@utu.fi