USDA, APHIS, PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Raleigh, North Carolina

1. Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) and the Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory (PERAL) USDA, APHIS, PPQCenter for Plant Health Science and TechnologyRaleigh, North Carolina

2. Part I: Overview - who we are Part II: Introduction to PRA Outline

3. Our Mission: …Apply state-of-the-art research and science-based processes to produce high-quality scientific analyses and technical information for identifying and managing pest risks associated with regulatory initiatives for the protection of plant resources of the U.S. and the import and export of agricultural commodities. What we do: The PRA team collects and analyzes scientific information and evidence in response to APHIS needs regarding plant health threats and regulatory concerns associated with plant pests, including insects, mites, fungi, bacteria, nematodes, viruses and related agents, weeds and parasitic plants.

4. A Glimpse into PERAL’s World

5. 20 Entomologists 11 Plant Pathologists 2 Ecologists 2 Botanists 1 Statistician 1 Economist 2 Biological Science Technicians 1 Librarian 1 Training Specialist 1 Technical Editor 2 Cooperators 1 IT Specialist 2 Administrative Assistants 2 Assistant Directors 1 Director Total = 50 Staff PERAL’s world is populated by: Robert Griffin, PERAL Director

6. Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis • Develop and apply methods that evaluate, predict, or describe pest outbreak or spread, including:GIS • Modeling • Statistics • Economics Commodity RAOrganism RAPathway RARisk management Export support

7. Perform pest risk analyses (PRA) Analyze risk-based operational questions Identify and evaluate risk mitigation measures Provide scientific support to facilitate exports Evaluate new pests and imminent threats Research scientific and technical questions Collect and manage pest risk information Responsibilities

8. Develop and evaluate analytical approaches and methodologies Analyze offshore pest dynamics Identify data needs for risk-based decision making Develop, maintain, and integrate datasets for risk prediction, modeling, and management Provide leadership to international and regional standard-setting Related activities

9. PPQ Programs (HQ, Regions, Field) ARS (data, research needs, review) Other USDA (OGC, ORACBA, Forest Service) Technical experts (universities, other agencies, international organizations) Stakeholders (States, producers) Offshore counterparts (NPPOs, Centers of Excellence, research orgs) Collaboration & linkage

10. Long-term: 90 days to several years Typically require a budget Assigned and prioritized by the Agency Ongoing: Operational/functional New Pest Advisory Group Fruit and vegetable import regulations (Q-56) Ad hoc: less than 90 days Projects

11. 31 commodity assessments 19 organism assessments 64 new pest (NPAG) assessments 7 pathway and operational assessments 19 collaborative assessments Database mgmt. Capacity building Standard setting 2009 Productivity

12. Tolerance level for Meloidogynechitwoodi in U.S. potatoes exported into Korea (image: M. chitwoodi symptoms on potato (nematode.unl.edu/melsymp.htm)) Re-evaluation of Mexican ‘Hass’ Avocado pre-harvest orchard sampling for the work plan (image: ‘Hass’ avocado fruit (source: www.avocadocentral.com)) Pest risk map for Sirexnoctilio and associated fungus Amylostereumareolatum(image: Sirexwoodwasp adults (SirexnoctilioFarbricius) by Paula Klasmer (www.forestryimages.org)) Ad Hoc Projects

13. DoD Projects started in 2009 Wood Packaging with Ammunition to Europe Base movement from Okinawa to Guam Large pathway analysis Multiple pests and multiple pathways Huge data collection challenge Collaboration with other agencies • Export analysis • Prove that untreated wood is low risk • Statistically designed sampling • Negotiation required

14. Capacity Building, Training, and Regulatory Curriculum International training Workshops on risk analysis, pest free & low pest prevalence areas, pest management, etc. Risk Analysis 101 and Risk Analysis Mentoring Program RA 101 training every year (summer) Risk Analysis Mentoring Training (RAMP) training ongoing Regulatory Curriculum at NCSU - Fundamentals of (Pest) Risk Analysis, 1 credit, NCSU - Challenges in Plant Resource Protection, 3 credits, NCSU

15. Library Services • Over 2,500 hard references organized in Library of Congress classification order with electronic catalog and checkout system • 17,000 PRAs, in-house publications, and scientific references in searchable electronic format • Collections of posters, maps, photographs Lucy ReidPERAL Information Specialist

16. Mission: assess exotic plant pests that are new or imminent threats to U.S. agriculture or the environment and recommend appropriate actions for PPQ to take Products: datasheets & reports with recommendations New Pest Advisory Group (NPAG) Amaryllis weevil, undescribed genus & species Botryotinia sphaerosperma Achatina fulica

17. NAPPFAST NCSU-APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting Internet tool for pest prediction and detection Interactive tool kits for building predictive models for insects, pathogens, and weeds On-line national and international weather and climate databases Model output can be graphical or map based for historical periods and climate match View of the NAPPFAST interface showing map viewing capabilities. The map depicts the predicted risk of one or more days suitable for maize wilt infection in North America based upon 10 years of derived soil temperature data.

18. Phytosanitary Alert System (www.pestalert.org) The Phytosanitary Alert System (PAS) is the web-based pest reporting system of the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO) Why CPHST?: PAS is directly in line with CPHST’s mission to identify pathways used by exotic pests and weeds, and to assess the risks posed by these pests CPHST staff input: 2 risk analysts; 35% of their work week

19. The Global Pest and Disease Database (GPDD) Information provided includes: host range, distribution maps, biology, control, images (provided by UGA), links to related APHIS documents, references, etc.

20. PART II Introduction to PRA

21. Request Prioritization Assignment Time Prerequisites Quarterly One + team Weeks to years Initiation

22. Comprehensive Pest List Quarantine Pest List Pathway List Pest Analysis Identify Mitigations Formulate Recommendations Analysis Literature review, expert and country consultation Optional country consultation

23. Initiation Estimate the likelihood of occurrence Estimate the magnitude of the consequences Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty Identify hazard(s) Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts Identify mitigation options Develop recommendations and describe uncertainty Decisionmaking Describe the concern which has created the need. Understand the background and expectations. Risk Assessment Mitigation requires assessment Risk requires mitigation Risk Management Evaluate recommendations against the current environment and values to select an option.

24. What information is available? What quantity and quality of information? What can go wrong (if nothing is done)? What is the likelihood? What is the magnitude of the consequences? Risk Assessment Questions

25. Elements of Pest Risk Assessment Likelihood (X) • Associated with host or pathway • Escapes certification • Survives transit • Undetected at entry • Provided a favorable environment • Able to reproduce/spread Consequences (+) • Direct economic or health damage potential • Indirect damage potential • Environmental damage potential • Perceived damage potential (social, political, aesthetic, etc.)

26. What can be done to eliminate or mitigate the hazard? How effective are the options? How feasible are the options? What impacts do the options have? What is the recommended option? What is the level of uncertainty? Risk Management Questions

27. Variability is not reduced with more or better information Uncertainty may be: modelling or measurement errors gaps in information incorrect assumptions Variability and Uncertainty

28. Two-way exchange of information consulting informing explaining or justifying Not for consensus, but understanding Demonstrates openness and concern Risk Communication

29. Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory 1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, North Carolina USA 27606-5202 Tel: +1-919-855-7512 Fax: +1-919-855-7595 http://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/cphst/peral.shtmlhttp:/