George Gallup (1901-1983) – considered the founder of modern-day polling.

1. Public Opinion – What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time. What better way than to ask Joe the Plumber! Question: Should politicians be overly concerned about being in tune with the “Common Man”? Who the heck is “the common man” anyway? Do you trust him?

2. Public Opinion Polls – Interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population. George Gallup (1901-1983) – considered the founder of modern-day polling. Pole vaulting over traffic has nothing to do with what we are talking about.

3. A little bit of history …Efforts to Influence Public Opinion • Federalist Papers • One of first major attempts to change public opinion • Paine’s Common Sense and The Crisis • Uncle Tom’s Cabin • WWI • Wilson’s creation of the Committee on Public Information • Lippman’s concern: government could easily manipulate public opinion. • Fahrenheit 911, Michael Moore

4. Early Efforts to Measure Public Opinion • Public opinion polling did not begin to develop until the 1930s. • Spurred on by Lippman’s Public Opinion (1922) – he wrote about how there wasn’t enough research into public opinion. • Earlier straw polls used • Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies • Literary Digest 1936 presidential poll– problems with the poll – didn’t get accurate sample (emphasized upper class), mailed questionnaires in September and things changed, self selection – only motivated individuals returned card. • George Gallup – correctly predicted Roosevelt’s victory

5. Recent Efforts to Measure Public Opinion • 1940s: Polling techniques became more sophisticated. • Setback with prediction that Dewey would defeat Truman in the 1948 general election • Gallup Organization • Internet

6. WHOOPS!!!!

7. How Public Opinion is Measured • Traditional public opinion polls • Determine the content phrasing the questions • In your notebook, think of two different ways to ask the same question. Which one gives you the better answer? • Selecting the sample • Random sampling: a method of poll selection that gives each person the same chance of being selected – extremely difficult/impossible to get a truly random sample • Stratified sampling: A variation of random sampling; census data are used to divide the country into four sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national population. • Contacting respondents – some are done in person, others on the phone. Pros and cons.

9. Political Polls • Push Polls • Polls taken for the purpose of providing information on an opponent that would lead respondents to vote against that candidate • Tracking Polls • Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support

10. Push Poll Examples • Rock the Vote used push polling in 2004 to scare young voters that President Bush planned to bring back the military draft.• AARP has been criticized for using push polling in elections to scare senior citizens into believing Republicans want to get rid of Social Security.•There were reports of push polling in the 2008 election.

11. Example of Push Poll • "John McCain calls the campaign finance system corrupt, but as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, he raises money and travels on the private jets of corporations with legislative proposals before his committee. In view of this, are you much more likely to vote for him, somewhat more likely to vote for him, somewhat more likely to vote against him or much more likely to vote against him?"

12. Push Poll • Al Gore strongly criticized President Bush for wiretapping American citizens without a warrant. • Congressman Leonard Boswell supports President Bush's wiretapping program." Voters can push "1" if they agree with the President, "2" if they disagree and "3" if they're not sure. • Pushing "3" leads the respondent to a second question: • "Do you support the re election of Congressman Leonard Boswell?" Again, you can push "1" if you support the Iowa Democrat and "2" if you don't. The call then terminates.

13. Another Push Poll • Voters in South Carolina reportedly were asked "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?

14. Tracking Polls from 2008 presidential election http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

15. Political Polls • Exit polls • Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election Day • Sample every tenth voter • Results of these polls help the news media predict outcomes of key races – this is how networks always say “we call this state for candidate X” with only 1% of the votes counted. • 1980 exit polls led Carter to concede 3 hours before the polls closed on the West Coast. • Networks agreed not to predict the results of presidential contests until all the polling places were closed.

16. Shortcomings of Polling • Inaccurate results can be dangerous. • Voter News Service made errors during the presidential election of 2000 estimating Florida. • Failed to estimate the number of voters accurately • Used an inaccurate exit poll model • Incorrectly estimated the number of African American and Cuban voters • Results lead to an early calling of the election • VNS disbanded in 2003 • Major networks and Associated Press joined together to form a new polling consortium, the National Election Pool.

17. OOOOOPPPPSSSS

18. Shortcomings of Polling • Sampling Error • Sampling error or margin of error • A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll • Limited Respondent Options- no choice that is the answer a respondent wants to give • Lack of Information – public not informed/doesn’t care • Intensity – How strongly do people feel about certain issues?

19. How Polling and Public Opinion Affect Politicians, Politics and Policy • Politicians and government spend millions each year to take the pulse of the public. • They rely on polls but we do not know to what degree. • Distort the election process with bandwagon or underdog effects