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Operational Risk Management - The Air Force Way

Operational Risk Management - The Air Force Way. Headquarters Air Force Safety Center Lt Col Denny Peeples Ms. Karen Kinkle. Who, Why , What ?. Who Denny: F-15, 10 yrs safety experience, CSP Karen: ORM manager for USAF Why are we here ?

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Operational Risk Management - The Air Force Way

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  1. Operational Risk Management - The Air Force Way Headquarters Air Force Safety Center Lt Col Denny Peeples Ms. Karen Kinkle

  2. Who, Why , What ? • Who • Denny: F-15, 10 yrs safety experience, CSP • Karen: ORM manager for USAF • Why are we here ? • MG McFann believes in Military / Civilian cross talk • Lessons learned for both – take something home • What are we going to cover ? • Background • How does the AF teach / use ORM ? • How can you integrate ORM into your organization ?

  3. Rules of Engagement • Call us Denny or “Peeps” and Karen • Lots of material, 5 day class, in 90 minutes but: • Ask questions as we go along • We will answer them directly, quickly or • We’ll follow-up with emails, calls • Exchange our “increase mission effectiveness” for your civilian world “make more, save more money” • Make sure you leave with handouts, cards, websites • Call , email us with follow-ups, we’ll do same “The question left UNASKED is the dumb question…”

  4. Background info on AF Safety • 1947 USAF started from US Army Air Corps of WWII • Traditionally more people killed in training than war, recently off duty vs. on duty • Grouped into flight, ground, weapons • #s have generally plateaued the past decade • Sec Def Rumsfield initiative to reduce mishaps by 50% in two years

  5. Air Force mishap rate history

  6. Where’s your office ? What is your risk ?

  7. ORM at home… 101 Critical Days Fatality Summary Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Fatals 19 65 PMV Through Current Week FY 04 to Date MC PMV MC 2004 PMV MC MC PMV PMV PMV MC MC PMV PMV MC S/R MC PMV PMV PMV Total Fatals 21 63 S/R 2003 PMV PMV FY 03 thru 4 Aug 03 Through Current Week PMV MC S/R PMV PMV MC MC PMV MC MC MC MC PMV MC MC PMV PMV PMV MC ON PMV PMV MC MC PMV PMV MC PMV MC PMV MC PMV Total Fatals 19 78 PMV PMV Through Current Week FY 02 thru 4 Aug 02 2002 PMV MC PMV PMV MC PMV MC PMV ON S/R MC PMV PMV MC PMV S/R PMV PMV S/R MC PMV PMV PMV S/R ON MC On-Duty : ON Off-Duty : Alcohol Vehicle Motorcycle Sports/Rec Misc. MC S/R PMV As of 4 Aug 04

  8. Our biggest Threat ….

  9. Lost Workday Injury Rates: USAF vs Alcoa USAF data as of 4 Aug 04 ALCOA data as of 4 Aug 04 LWI Rate/100 employees USAF mil & civ injuries are on-duty, ground only (aviation excluded).2002 includes USAF occupational illness data UNCLASSIFIED

  10. Overview • What is ORM? Why ORM? • ORM - The Key Principles • How the USAF teaches ORM: The 6-step process • USAF ORM Maturation • How to integrate ORM into your company • ORM Process example

  11. What is ORM ? ORM: The Air Force’s six-stepdecision-making processwith specific tools designed tosystematically identifyrisks and benefitsand determine the best course of actionfor any given situation Fundamental Goal:Enhance mission effectivenessby optimizing risk

  12. What is ORM?(Informal Definition) • Simply applying common sense on- and off-duty • Don’t Do Stupid Things! • “Rubber Meets the Road” Language • What can go wrong? • How bad can it be? • What can we do about it?

  13. Traditional Safety Reactive Evaluates compliance Focuses on performance Inspections/evaluations Risk Management Proactive Evaluates risk Focuses on mission Everyone involved Achieving the Goal . . . Requires A Cultural Shift

  14. What are the goals of ORM ? • Enhance mission effectiveness at all levels. • Integrate ORM into mission processes. • Create an Air Force in which every leader, airman, and employee is trained and motivated to manage risk in all their on- and off-duty activities. • Identify opportunities to increase USAF warfighting effectiveness.

  15. MISHAP RATE VS ANNUAL COSTCLASS A FLIGHT ONLY(Why do we need ORM?)

  16. Why ORM - Know The Threats The Safety Pyramid 1 Fatality 30 Lost-Time Injuries 300 Recordable Injuries 1,000 to 1 30,000 Near Misses 300,000 At-Risk Behaviors

  17. KC-135 Overpressurization(Tinker AFB - Depot)

  18. Note Where Aft Hatch Landed

  19. Overview • What is ORM?, Why ORM? • ORM - The Key Principles • How the AF teaches ORM: The 6-step process • USAF ORM Maturation • How to integrate ORM into your company • ORM Process example

  20. 4, (no 5) Key ORM Principles 1. Accept no unnecessary risks. 2. Make risk decisions at the appropriate level. 3. Accept risks when benefits outweigh costs. • Integrate ORM into planning, operations and education at all levels. • Make it second nature, on duty and off

  21. Overview • What is ORM?, Why ORM? • ORM - The Key Principles • How the AF teaches ORM: The 6-step process • USAF ORM Maturation • How to integrate ORM into your company • ORM Process example

  22. Man your cheat sheet !!! STEP 1 IDENTIFY THE HAZARD Action 2: Assess hazard severity Action 4: Complete assessment Action 3: Assess mishap probability Action 1: Mission/task analysis Action 2: List Hazards Action 3: List Causes STEP 2 ASSESS THE RISK Action 1: Assess hazard exposure STEP 3 ANALYZE RISK CONTROL MEASURES Action 3: Prioritize risk control measures Action 1: Identify control options Action 2: Determine control effects STEP 4 MAKE CONTROL DECISIONS Action 1: Select Risk Controls Action 2: Make Risk Decisions STEP 5 IMPLEMENT RISK CONTROLS Action 2: Establish accountability Action 3: Provide support Action 1: Make implemen- tation clear 1 2 3 STEP 6 SUPERVISE AND REVIEW Action 1: Supervise Action 2: Review Action 3: Feedback AF ORM Cheat Sheet 1 6 2 5 Ms Karen Kinkle 505 246 1386 karen.kinkle@kirtland.af.mil Lt Col Denny Peeples 505 246 0714 denny.peeples@kirtland.af.mil 3 4 HAZARD SEVERITY CATEGORIES I Catastrophic - Complete mission failure, death, or system loss. II Critical - Major mission impact, severe injury, or major system damage. III Moderate - Minor mission impact, injury, or system damage. IV Negligible - Little mission impact, injury, or damage. HAZARD PROBABILITY CATEGORIES A Frequent - Item: occurs often. Fleet: continuous. Individual: occurs often. All: continuous. B Likely - Item: occurs several times. Fleet: frequently. Individual: occurs several times. All: frequently. C Occasional - Item: will occur. Fleet: several times. Individual: will occur. All: sporadic. D Seldom - Item: could occur. Fleet: will occur. Individual: could occur. All: seldom. E Unlikely - Item: will not occur. Fleet: could occur. Individual: will not occur. All: very rarely. Event Probability Frequent Likely Occasional Seldom Unlikely A B C D E 6 12 8 SEVERITY I Catastrophic 4 7 11 15 II Critical 10 14 9 16 5 Moderate III 17 18 20 19 13 Negligible IV

  23. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions The ORM 6-Step Process

  24. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Step 1 Identify the Hazards Process: Emphasize hazard ID tools. Adds rigor and early detection. Output: Significant improvement in the detection of hazards (50%+) .

  25. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Step 1 Identify the Hazards • Operation/task analysis provides basis for systematic approach: • Sequence of events • Hazards identified in each step

  26. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Step 1 Identify the Hazards • Hazard - Any real or potential condition that can cause mission degradation, injury, illness, or death to personnel or damage to or loss of equipment or property • Hazard ID tools – Over 25 Available • What-Ifs, Scenarios, 5Ms, etc • Early detection leads to significant improvement What Bad Things Can Happen?

  27. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions “Identify the Hazard, all the Hazards…”

  28. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Don’t Jockey Throttles With Engines Running

  29. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Flight 357, Now Arriving at Gate 114…

  30. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions 2. Assess the Risks Step 2 Assess the Risks • Process: All hazards evaluated for mission or activity impact. Root causes determined and risk levels assigned. • Output: Personnel know the priority risk issues of the organization and of their function.

  31. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions 2. Assess the Risks Assess the Risk • Associates hazards with level of risk

  32. What is the worse alternative ?Can you accept the risk ?

  33. What is the worse alternative ?Can you accept the risk ?

  34. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 4. Make Control Decisions 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures Step 3 Analyze Control Measures • Process: Comprehensive risk control options developed on a worst-first basis. • Output: A full range of cost effective, mission supportive, risk controls for the decision-maker.

  35. Step 3 Analyze Control Measures 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 4. Make Control Decisions 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures Macro Options • Reject:Risk outweighs the benefit, so don’t do it • Avoid:“Go Around the Risk”/Do it a Different Way • Delay:New technology/need may no longer exist • Transfer:UAV/contract the operation • Spread:Make a bigger target/reduce exposure • Compensate:Create redundancies • Reduce:Use the control options matrix to suggest “reduce” options

  36. Step 3 Analyze Control Measures 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 4. Make Control Decisions 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures Action 1: Identify Control Options Action 3: Prioritize Risk Control Measures Action 2: Determine Control Effects

  37. Note Position of Jack Pads 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 4. Make Control Decisions 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures

  38. Just Missed a Parked Jet 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 4. Make Control Decisions 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures

  39. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Step 4 Make Control Decisions • Process: Gets risk decisions to the right person, at the right time, with the right support. • Output: Personnel know their decision-making authority and limitations.

  40. Step 4 Make Control Decisions 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review Action 1: Select Risk Controls Action 2: Make Risk Decision 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions

  41. KC-10 Towing Accident 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions

  42. OOPS! That Isn’t Gonna Buff Out 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions

  43. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Step 5 Implement Risk Controls • Process: Leaders lead, operators involved, accountability known. • Output: Controls approved by decision-maker are implemented.

  44. Step 5 Implement Risk Controls 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Action 1: Make Implementation Clear Action 3: Provide Support Action 2: Establish Accountability

  45. 1. Identify the Hazards 6. Supervise and Review 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Is your risk control effective ?

  46. 6. Supervise and Review 1. Identify the Hazards 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Step 6 Supervise and Review Process: Measures mission effectiveness and direct indicators of risk. Output: Real time status. Proactive, not reactive.

  47. Step 6 Supervise and Review 6. Supervise and Review 1. Identify the Hazards Action 1: Supervise Action 2: Review Action 3: Feedback 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions

  48. Review Measures to Avoid This! 6. Supervise and Review 1. Identify the Hazards 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions Example of Aircraft Foreign Objects Found during periodic inspections

  49. 6. Supervise and Review 1. Identify the Hazards 2. Assess the Risks 5. Implement Risk Controls 3. Analyze Risk Control Measures 4. Make Control Decisions “In the end have an honest assessment…”

  50. PLANNING OPERATIONS AFTER-ACTION -Deliberate ORM -Detailed Hazard ID -Integrated -Largely Time-Critical -Change Analysis -Real Time -Highly Decentralized -Assess Indicators -Deliberate ORM -Integration -Feedback to Planning We try to get most ORM done here But continue the process here and here Using the 6-Step ProcessTHE RISK MANAGEMENT CONTINUUM

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