5 mars 2012

1. ERTMS Life Cycle a view on cost, maintenance, migration and future… PIERRE MESSULAM ERTMS program director SNCF transilien VP DR PIERRE MESSULAM ERTMS CONFERENCE ISTANBUL APRIL 2, 2014 1 Paris LONDON 5 mars 2012 January 25, 2012

2. SNCF MIGRATION STRATEGYFROM LEGACY SYSTEMS TO ETCS • Equipment or pre-equipment of all new rolling stock • All high speed trains delivered since 2009 • Regional trains, beginning with “Regiolis” fleet (2014) • New freight locomotives (AKIEM is the SNCF Rosco) • No large scale retrofit • Retrofitting costs appeared to be unaffordable (negative pay back) • Except in specific cases when no alternative to address attractive new business (HSL Zuid, Perpignan Barcelona) • 2 architectures: Bistandard ERTMS/TVM and Bistandard ERTMS/KVB • A single version for each type of on-board unit

3. THE MIGRATION ISSUES • The transition period leads to double capital cost for the sake of migration • Bistandard architecture happens to be the appropriate answer • Black box design of on-boards leads to a relationship close to monopoly for suppliers • We aim at relationship with suppliers based on long-term contracts including Baseline 3 developments • Freight • It is more cost-effective to hire equipped locomotives when operating on routes fitted with ERTMS • We have no business case for the retrofit of locomotives

4. ETCS – LIFE CYCLE ISSUES • When crossing borders OBU has to manage discrepancies of national versions and national requirements/rules • On Board Units have to tackle/manage complexity • Upgrades are often necessary witch means re-authorisation • The homologation, testing, commissioning and re-commissioning process for on-board is slow, complex and costly. • Bug fixing and reduction of exported constraints leads to successive versions of the on-board software witch means re-authorisation • The Hardware has a limited life expectation and will need to be replaced periodically • Interfacing ETCS with interlocking is a life cycle issue

5. ETCS – COST ISSUES • ETCS is complex • All components are at the highest level of integrity (SIL4) • The hardware is Fail Safe • Deviations are imposed by Member states (National rules): customization primes to standardization • Complex means both less reliable and tricky to assess safety proof • There is a lack of perspectives for a stable, consistent and complete B3 • Costs are still increasing

6. WHICH PERSPECTIVES ? • Shall we need a single unified Train Control System? • Are specifications genuinely adapted to RU’s needs and means? • What are the other ways to solve the issues?

7. FREIGHT • It is more cost-effective to hire equipped locomotives when operating on routes fitted with ERTMS • We have no sustainable business case for retrofit of locomotives; we have few incentive to buy new ones as version management is complex and expansive. • The ETCS requirements for speed and position accuracy are mandatory for all trains even for Freight trains that operate at low speed • But the braking performances of the wagons carry big uncertainties • So very accurate ETCS odometers are meaningless in this context • Huge savings could be done using existing odometers on freight locomotives while adding safety margins to maintain the overall safety target.

8. FREIGHT TRAINS ON REGIONAL LINES • The UIC specification for ERTMS regional is a very clever way to keep short lines in a sustainable economical operation. • But it requires to operate trains already fitted with ETCS. • This is not an issue for passenger trains generally dedicated to a limited area • This is an issue for freight trains when locomotives fitted with ERTMS are better used to haul heavy trains on main lines. • For low density lines, a handset terminal could be sufficient for freight trains

9. HIGH SPEED LINES • ERTMS perfectly adapted for HIGH SPEED LINES • This system is properly designed: • Cab signalling • Reduced headways • The braking performances recorded in the EVC are perfectly in line with the real braking performances • The interoperability is the opportunity for adressing international markets on ERTMS equipped lines • Costs are not an issue when building new lines

10. HIGH FLOW ON HIGH SPEED LINES • SNCF and RFF are studying increasing capacity of high speed lines up to 16 trains per hour. Our common goal is very ambitious • Headway reduced to 3 minutes • Speed is 300 kph + • ERTMS appears to reach limits due to DMI: • Tests on simulator show that drivers face genuine troubles to comply with braking at 300 kph without soliciting emergency procedures • If the driver reacts with more than 2 seconds of delay, permitted speed is exceeded • that can lead to very demanding modes of control for the trainsets • Drivers are really enthusiastic but degraded modes need a lot of attention and a very close cooperation between drivers and signalers • Driving with ERTMS is intuitive but simulator training is a necessity for rare procedures • 15 trains (maybe 16) per hour at 300 kph seems to be the limit

11. HIGH FLOW ON URBAN LINES • For MASS TRANSIT operations ETCS has pitfalls to consider a goal of 28/35 trains per hour • Speed is lower (80 to 100 kmph) and doesn’t require the same accuracy than HSL while position accuracy shall be greater to renew movement authorisation and guarantee stop in front of platform edge doors • Data flows are huge in mass transit and time constraints are far much sharper • Reliability of radio link and Radio interferences between GSM-R and public GSM or digital TV are worrying issues for the future • The competition with CBTC is not in favor of ERTMS • ERTMS is nevertheless still mandatory on urban lines

12. ETCS and the future of Train Control Systems • Urban Lines • CBTC is the better option for higher volumes; convergence with ETCS is a thrilling challenge • Freight • Mandatory ETCS could happen to be an unbearable cost for operators. Lowering costs is a must to keep alive railfreight traffics • Limited Supervision happens to be a wise medium term migration step • Decreasing requirements on locomotives odometers while using extra margins on the braking distance • High speed Lines • ERTMS: Interoperability + cab signalling + safety is a must • But capacity is limited to about 15/16 trains per hour

13. ETCS and THE FUTURE OF TRAIN CONTROL SYSTEMS • ETCS is easy for green fields projects; • Migration or superposition with legacy systems is expensive and complex: no business model has yet appeared but to have public funding • Future versions shall rely on formal methodology to set up specifications, rigorous developments and easier testing, all of which should provide us with quicker to market and cheaper products • Traffic management layer is crucial for the industry future but has curiously seldom driven attention from suppliers operators or authorities

14. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !