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Learn about NewsFutures, Inc., founded in 2000, offering prediction trader panels and technology licensing for corporate and public markets, with a focus on accuracy, community dialogue, liquidity, and financial incentives. Discover how the company applies experimental economics and psychology to understand markets as brains, aiming for intelligence through interactions. Explore revenue streams derived from sales forecasting, price forecasting, and more, serving clients in various industries like pharmaceuticals, automobile, insurance, and food. Engage in trader psychological profiling and motivation studies while trading in user-friendly software design. Collaborate commercially or non-commercially for software licenses, scientific research, experiments, and more. Contact NewsFutures, Inc. for opportunities to enhance your understanding of market dynamics.
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NewsFutures, Inc • Founded in 2000 • Auto financed; Profitable • Nine employees • Two public exchanges (40,000+ markets) • Corporate clients in US, Europe and Asia
Business Models Prediction Trader Panels Corporate Markets Public Markets Technology Licensing
Launch: Fall 2000 36,000 registered traders
Launch: Fall 2004 10,000 registered traders
Customers in Various Industries Pharmaceuticals Automobile Insurance Food Advertising Publishing Consumer Appliances Cable Ten Fortune 1000 clients
Popular Corporate Applications • Sales forecasting • Price forecasting • Project / Product prioritization • Product / Feature selection • Regulatory monitoring Prediction & Decision markets
It’s not only about accuracy It’s not only about: It’s also (mostly?) about: Accuracy Community - Dialogue Liquidity Being heard - Listening Money Focus – Getting on board Incentives Knowledge – Business Value Software User-friendly design Trading (Job security)
It’s not only about accuracy It’s not only about: It’s also (mostly?) about: Accuracy Community - Dialogue Liquidity Being heard - Listening Money Focus – Getting on board incentives Knowledge – Business Value Software User-friendly design Trading (Job security) Experimental Economics Psychology
Markets as Brains Intelligence Accuracy • In both cases • Intelligence emerges from interaction of many relatively dumb parts • Learning by reinforcement & pruning improves performance
What can we do together? • Commercial / Non-commercial software licenses • Scientific collaborations • Experiments • Public or corporate data analysis • New, business-relevant research questions • Trader psychological profiles (real money / play money) • Incentives (short term – long term) • Trader Motivations • Trading styles • Longitudial studies – market as learning system
Multiple-Outcome Marketswith automatic arbitrage (Patent Pending)
Pharmaceutical IndustryTrends 2003Markets sponsored by eLilly
Operational Details • Participants were several hundred people recruited form the general population of NewsFutures.com traders. • Markets operated with virtual money, but with a $10,000 cash prize to split among the 10 most successful traders.
Will a law be passed allowingdrug re-importation? President Bush says that he wants a bill on his desk by Jul 4th. Result = No
Will a new drug benefit be introducedunder Medicare? President Bush says that he wants a bill on his desk by Jul 4th. Late night “arm twisting” as the House of Representative votes on the Medicare bill… Result = Yes
By how much will access to physiciansincrease or decrease (2002 vs 2003)? By how much will access to physiciansincrease or decrease (2002 vs 2003)? Result = +7.4% (sales force headcount increase for top-10 pharma companies)
How many New Molecular Entitieswill be approved by the FDA in 2003? Result = 21
