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Sam Fankhauser Grantham Research Institute and CCCEP London School of Economics

Urban Decarbonisation: Experience in the UK Seminar at the Intelligent City Salon Berlin, 15 Juni 2011. Sam Fankhauser Grantham Research Institute and CCCEP London School of Economics Support by the ESRC and the Grantham Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. Overview.

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Sam Fankhauser Grantham Research Institute and CCCEP London School of Economics

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  1. Urban Decarbonisation:Experience in the UKSeminar at the Intelligent City SalonBerlin, 15 Juni 2011 Sam Fankhauser Grantham Research Institute and CCCEP London School of Economics Support by the ESRC and the Grantham Foundation is gratefully acknowledged

  2. Overview • Britain’s carbon targets • Decarbonising transport • Decarbonising buildings • Decarbonising electric power

  3. The 2008 Climate Change Act • Sets legally binding carbon targets • Long-term (2050) target set in the Act • Binding 5-year carbon budgets set 12 years ahead • First three budgets (2008–22) set in 2009 • Fourth budget (2023-27) to be determined later in 2011 • Puts in place an institutional framework for delivery • Independent Committee on Climate Change recommends budgets and reports on progress

  4. The mandatory 2050 target • Climate Objective • Expected temperature change as little above 2oC as possible • Risk of 4 oC at very low levels (e.g. <1%) Science International Circumstances Set in the Climate Change Act, as recommended by the CCC • UK 2050 legislated target 80% reduction in GHG from 1990, all sources Global emissions peak by 2020, halve by 2050

  5. The carbon budgets 2008 - 27 Interim Budget is currently legislated, CCC recommends tightening Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

  6. Indicative emissions trajectories Different sectors will have different emission reduction paths Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

  7. The special role of cities Sources of urban greenhouse gas emissions Source: Kennedy et al 2009

  8. Overview • Britain’s carbon targets • Decarbonising transport • Decarbonising buildings • Decarbonising electric power

  9. Transport emissions Technological change dominates demand management

  10. Key technology targets for 2020 • New car efficiency of 95 gCO2/km • Through a combination of vehicle technologies • 1.7m battery and plug-in hybrid electric cars • 16% of new car sales and 5% of fleet • New van efficiency of 135 gCO2/km • Biofuel penetration of 8% • Mostly for buses, HGVs, some PHEVs • Limited availability of sustainable biofuels

  11. A combination of vehicle technologies Emissions intensity of cars – by type and distance 125 Fleet average emissions: 81 g/km 80 Emissions Intensity gCO2/km • Conventional cars: • 80-125 g/km • 70% of km 50 Plug-in hybrids: 50 g/km 20% of km • Pure electrics: • 0 gCO2/km • 10% of miles 0 100% 70% Distance (km)

  12. How different technologies might add up Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

  13. Encouraging electric car uptake • Price incentives • Government subsidy of £5,000 on new cars • Differentiation in road tax, excise duty, London Congestion Charge • Provide recharging points • London: 1,300 charging points by 2013 • Although experience shows most people charge at home

  14. Key behavioural targets • Ecodriving • Train 10% of car / van drivers, all HGV drivers • Enforcing speed limits on motorways • Smarter choices program in all cities and towns • Policies encouraging car sharing, working from home, use of public transport • Introduction of road pricing? • In addition to, not instead of fuel duty

  15. Smarter choices • Pilot programme to change travel behaviour • Workplace, school and personal travel plans • Personalised travel planning, travel awareness campaigns, and public transport information • Car clubs and car sharing schemes • Teleworking, teleconferencing and home shopping • Three pilot sustainable travel towns • Darlington, Peterborough and Worcester • £15million over 5 years (2004-09)

  16. Smarter choices: Pilot results

  17. Key policy levers Improve efficiency of conventional vehicles (e.g. more stringent new car CO2 target-based regulation, complementing fuel duty) Encourage uptake of electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen vehicles (e.g. taxes/subsidies on fuel/vehicles or very stringent new vehicle CO2 regulation) Manage additional electricity demand (e.g. Smart meters and time-of-day tariffs) Encourage deployment of hydrogen buses (e.g. regulation, economic instruments) Continue to reduce travel demand (e.g. Smarter Choices, incentives to improve logistics, land use planning) Encourage sustainable biofuels (e.g. Regulation mandating minimum life-cycle emissions saving)

  18. Overview • Britain’s carbon targets • Decarbonising transport • Decarbonising buildings • Decarbonising electric power

  19. Emissions from buildings Push in energy efficiency and gradual introduction of renewable heat

  20. A boost in energy efficiency Targets on insulation, boilers and appliances Budgets 1, 2 and 3 Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

  21. The role of new heat technologies Renewable sources of heat emerging in the 2020s Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

  22. Energy efficiency measures • Supplier obligations • Carbon Emission Reduction Target (CERT) • Financial assistance • “Green Deal” (for building efficiency) • Green Investment Bank (for large investments) • Information and technical assistance • Carbon Trust, Energy Savings Trust • Reputation and management incentives • CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme

  23. Energy efficiency and fuel poverty Energy efficiency could take 300,000 households out of fuel poverty Targeted energy efficiency Income support (e.g. winter fuel payments) Tariff structure (e.g. block tariffs)

  24. Overview • Britain’s carbon targets • Decarbonising transport • Decarbonising buildings • Decarbonising electric power

  25. Electric power emissions Electricity generation needs to be all but carbon-free in 20 years Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

  26. Wholesale replacement of generating assets Many power stations due for replacement in the 2020s anyway Source: CCC (2009, 2010) on shoreoffshore

  27. Has it worked? Emissions are within budget, but mostly due to the recession Source: Committee on Climate Change (2010)

  28. Urban Decarbonisation:Experience in the UKSeminar at the Intelligent City SalonBerlin, 15 Juni 2011 Sam Fankhauser Grantham Research Institute and CCCEP London School of Economics Support by the ESRC and the Grantham Foundation is gratefully acknowledged

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