ENERGY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION: Situation and prospects Dr Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL, OME

1. General overview of renewable energy and energy efficiency in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries Dr Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL, OME ENERGY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION: Situation and prospects Dr Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL, OME

2. OME • Context • Present situation and prospects • Conclusion

4. Missions & Objectives Objectives Think Tank - Reference on Mediterranean Energy Issues - Expertise - Studies and Publications - Mediterranean Energy Database & Scenarios • Promoting Cooperation & Partnership • - Mutual Technical Assistance between Members - Capacity building - Communication and Events Consulting & Advice Monitoring & Scenarios Cooperation & Partnership “OME makes things happen”

5. 400 350 SEMCs 300 250 200 millions inhabitants NMCs 150 100 50 0 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Plan Bleu, OME Demography in the Mediterranean Basin

6. Demography The MCs population grew at 1.7%/y between 2000-2006. Annual growth by country is 1% for Tunisia, 1.2% for Morocco, 1.6% for Algeria & 2% for Egypt. During the period 2000-2006, population increased from 132 to 145 M & the urban pop. from 67 to 76 M. These increases represent 13 M more inhabitants, & 9.4 M more people in the cities.

7. Urban Population (share of the total) Urbanization rate in the MCs increased from 50.5% to 51.9% between 2000 & 2006. Currently, the urban rate varies from about 43% in Egypt to 65.3 % in Tunisia (63.3 % in Algeria & 55.5 % in Morocco).

8. 2005-2020 SEMCs 7000 Average growth per year: NMCs Total MED. 3.0% NMCs 2.5%; SEMCs 4.9% 2000-2005 6000 23% Avg. growth per year: Total MED. 2.1% NMCs 1.7%; SEMCs 3.8% 5000 19% 1971-2000 Avg. growth per year Total MED. 2.9% 4000 17% GDP using exchange rates (billion $2000) NMCs 2.7%; SEMCs 3.7% 16% 3000 14% 13% 81% 77% 2000 12% 83% 84% 86% 1000 87% 88% 0 1971 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 Economic Development in the Mediterranean

9. Economic Growth GDP & GDP per capita are steadily increasing in all MCs. GDP of the MCs amounts to 257b$. Annual growth rate is 4.5% for all MCs (3.8% in Egypt, 4.2% in Morocco, 4.9% in Algeria & 7% in Tunisia). Tunisia & Algeria recorded the strongest economic growth between 2000 and 2006. GDP per capita is higher for Tunisia and Algeria, followed by Egypt and Morocco. Growth of GDP/capita depends also on population growth.

10. From large exporter to totally importer countries The SMCs are unequally endowed with hydrocarbon resources Range between large exporters to totally importers Two countries (Algeria & Egypt) are high energy exporters and two countries (Tunisia & Morocco) are net energy importers It is nowadays widely recognised that energy will continue to play an important role in all the MCs, importers or exporters of energy. The national energy policies are largely linked to the energy resources available in each of these countries

11. Oil (Mt) & Gas (bcm) Reserves Total Oil Reserves = 6145 Mt Total Gas Reserves = 8340 bcm 4580 400 370 1870 1500 1400 3900 445 Oil Reserves Gas Reserves Source: Reserves from BP & CEDIGAZ

13. The 145-million population in MCs is consuming 112 Mtoe of primary energy (of wh. 53 Mtoe of gas, 52 Mtoe oil & 6 Mtoe coal) & 154 TWh of electricity. Number of customers in residential sector is 26.6 million for electricity and 2.5 million for natural gas. Although the global electrification rate reached 96.6%, about 6-10 million of persons still have no access to electricity. Efforts are deployed in the renewable energy sector in the MCs particularly in wind and solar energy and PV installations for electrification of remote villages, isolated rural households and rural schools.

15. Electricity production in the MCS (175 TWh in 2006)

16. Electricity Generation by source in the MCs (in TWh)

18. Energy indicators

21. RE in SEMCs: high potential but relatively modest present situation Source: OME

22. Solar Water Heating (m2)

24. Wind Capacity Installed (MW)

25. Wind Generation (GWh)

26. Hydro Generation (in GWh)

27. Energy dependency is increasing …

28. The region is also facing climate change problems … Source : UNF, Sigma XI, 2007

29. …which are expected to be more challenging in the future Source : IPCCC, 2007 WGI

30. Energy related CO2 emissions in the MCs (in Mt)

31. CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption in the Mediterranean Source: OME

32. “On current trends, we are on course for an unstable, dirty & expensive energy future” quote from IEA Executive Director

33. A more sustainable future is needed • A more sustainable future is possible • High potential for energy efficiency • Renewable energy have also an important role to play • OME is working on these issues through its RESDC

34. No single solution….a portfolio of technologies is required Solutions depend on … Countries, Resources, Needs, Choices, Market, Timing, Infrastructure … Renewable energy technologies Efficiency in buildings, Industry and End-Use products Biomass, CHP Energy efficiency in the transport sector Advanced power generation and grid CO2 Capture and Storage

35. Barriers need to be removed, particularly • Institutional and legal barriers: in most of the countries, there is no institutional and regulatory framework specific to RE • Competing resources: RE are competing with conventional energies relatively abundant, widely deployed and subsidised in several countries of the region. But, RE are most often already competitive in isolated rural areas

36. Regional and international context is favourable • Regional: EC, EIB, MEDREP, MEDENER, MEDITEP, OME • Kyoto Protocol: the Clean Development Mechanism, an opportunity not yet fully exploited • The Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development: a framework in favour to RE and EE • RE perspectives are encouraging

37. RE perspectives are encouraging in the SEMCs Source: OME

38. Thank you Contact allal@ome.org