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UniCredit Group. Alessandro Profumo Chief Executive Officer. Lehman Brothers Financial Services Conference New York, 12 th September 2007. UNICREDIT: EXCELLENT POSITIONING IN EUROPE, UNIQUE PLATFORM IN CEE. TOTAL REVENUES BREAKDOWN. BY GEOGRAPHY. UNPARALLELED EUROPEAN FRANCHISE
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UniCredit Group Alessandro ProfumoChief Executive Officer Lehman Brothers Financial Services Conference New York, 12th September 2007
UNICREDIT: EXCELLENT POSITIONING IN EUROPE, UNIQUE PLATFORM IN CEE TOTAL REVENUES BREAKDOWN BY GEOGRAPHY • UNPARALLELED EUROPEAN FRANCHISE • Banking operations in 23 countries(1) in four core markets: • Italy: #2, ~16% mkt share post Capitalia(2) • Germany: #3, ~5% mkt share(2) • Austria: #1, ~19% mkt share(2) • CEE: biggest investor in the region (among top five in 11 countries by loans) • More than ~40 million customers, ~9,500 branches Other 8% CEE 18% Italy 47% Austria 10% Germany 17% • WELL DIVERSIFIED REVENUE BASE • Strong presence in the Italian banking market, among the less penetrated in Eurozone • Undisputed leader in high growth CEE region, with strong exposure to commercial banking (1H07 Retail and Corporate revenues: ~80% of Group’s total revenues in CEE region) • Still relevant restructuring potential in Germany and Austria after integration completion BY DIVISION NOTE: Year-end 2006 data, referred to UniCredit + Capitalia + ATF +USB Groups (combined pro-forma) Source: UniCredit, Capitalia, ATF, USB 2006 data Clear value creation potential thanks to growth and restructuring opportunities (1) Including ATF (2) Market shares and rankings calculated on customer loans, considering only loans to domestic customers for Germany
AGENDA 1H07 Results First steps of the integration with Capitalia US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure Conclusions
2Q07 CONFIRM SOLID PROFITABILITY TREND OF THE GROUP • 1H07 net income+34.8% y/y at constant FX and perimeter (excluding gain on Splitska(2)) • Good operating performance sustained by revenue growth in all business divisions • Operating costs benefiting from release of excess pension fund provisions (~150 mln in BA-CA and ~116 mln in Italy for “TFR”); +4.4% 1H07/1H06 net of this effect, mainly due to higher business volumes • 1H07 C/I ratio at 50.2% vs 54.9% in 1H06 • Cost of risk(3) down to 53 bp in 1H07 (-3 bp vs FY06) • Lower contribution of other non operating items (-311 mln y/y, largely due to gain on Splitska posted in 2Q06) • Improved profitability of RWA(3), 6.12% in 1H07 (~ +60 bp on FY06) • Increased Core Tier 1 ratio to ~6.1% • ~200 mln of capital generated through securitizations (1) Goodwill amortization, provisions for risk and charges, integration costs and net profit from investments (3) CoR and Revenues/avg. RWA in 1H07 are annualized (2) Eur 367 mln posted in 2Q06
REVENUES AT ~6.5 BN (+9.4% Y/Y) DRIVEN BY GOOD TREND IN FEES AND COMMISSIONS NET INTEREST INCOME (ex div.), mln NET COMMISSION INCOME, mln TRADING INCOME, mln net of Exchangeable Generali +14.7% Of which Exchangeable Generali effect, mln +42 +58 -40 • Net interest income up 8.4% y/y, with positive contribution from all the Divisions, mainly CEE and Poland’s Markets (both approx. +24% y/y) and Retail-Italy (+10% y/y, thanks to loan growth and improved deposit spread); -1.5% q/q due toMIB Division’s seasonality • Net commissions +10.7% y/y mainly due togrowth in MIB (+35.3 y/y) and in the CEE Region (+23.6% y/y). Good trend also in AM (+17.0% y/y) and in Corporate (+10.1% y/y) • Trading income +14.7% y/y net of Exchangeable Generali effect (-82 mln), with continuous strong contribution of MIB (+33.1% y/y)
OPERATING COSTS AT 3,207 MLN (-1.1% Y/Y) BENEFITING FROM RELEASE OF EXCESS PENSION PROVISIONS STAFF EXPENSES(1), mln OTHER ADMIN. EXPENSES AND EXPENSE RECOVERIES, mln DEPRECIATION, mln • Staff costs decline due to the effect of TFR reform in Italy and release of provisions for BA-CA pension liabilities(1); • net of non-recurring items(1), staff costs are up ~7% y/y mainly driven by: • performance-related compensation, accounting for >50% of the increase (mainly MIB, AM and Poland) • business expansion in selected CEE countries and investments in global business lines • Other administrative expenses +11% y/y mainly explained by: • growth projects like investments in global product lines and opening of new branches in Turkey, Russia and Hungary • outsourcing in Germany • various IT projects in Germany and Italy largely related to Eurosig implementation and mandatory projects(2) • effect of comparison with 2Q06, lowest quarter in the year. 1H07/1H06 change +4.7% (1) 2Q07 non-recurring items in staff-costs: 150 mln of release of provisions for BA-CA pension liabilities and 116 mln of TFR reform benefits (2) MIFID directive; SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area: integrated market implementation for international payments in 27 EU countries); Basel II
- 3,121 FTE GROUP STAFF RIGHTSIZING STILL MORE THAN OFFSETTING HIRING FOR GROWTH INITIATIVES GROUP FTE (1) -1,317 Growth initiatives 137,197 -1,020 -1,585 135,880 + 87 + 395 + 188 -489 + 783 + 350 -26 134,077 Retail(3) Retail Italy Other Dec06 GBS & corp. centre Out-sourcing and disposals(2) CEE Region ex Russia & Turkey Jun07 Subtotal New Consolidation (4) Russia & Turkey Corporate Jun07 • Decrease of FTEs (-3,121 or –2.3%) excluding growth initiatives with relevant contribution of GBS & corporate centre and outsourcing deals • Decrease in CEE Region driven by merger completion and rightsizing • Increase in Corporate mainly due to investment in Leasing and to “revenue boost project” in Banca d’Impresa and HVB (1) Yapi Group at 100% (2) Outsourcing: Security activities in Turkey (820), PAS (420), HVB IS (316), Indexchange Investment (30) (3) Include transfer of approx. 200 FTE from Corporate Centre for CRO related activities (4) New consolidation: Planet Home (299), Insurance Broker (16) and Unicredit Leasing Ukraina (20)
POSITIVE TREND IN ASSET QUALITY AND CONTINUED DE-RISKING OF BALANCE SHEET LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS, mln ASSET QUALITY TREND -6.6% gross of PPA adj. +1.8% -9.7% • Strong reduction of net impaired loans • Decreased % weight of net impaired loans on total customer loans • Increased coverage ratio on impaired loans with significant growth on NPL (from 61.5% to 63.6%), doubtful (from 26% to 30%) and restructured loans (from 31.6% to 37%) • Loan loss provisions reflect a positive credit environment mainly in Germany and Poland • Material de-risking of balance sheet: Net impaired loans/Total Regulatory Capital ratio reduced from 32.2% as of Dec06 to 26.8% as of Jun07 (> 5% reduction) • Cost of Risk(1) down to 53 bp in 1H07 (-3 bp vs. FY06) with improvements in all geographic areas (1) Profit (loss) and net write downs on loans / Total Period Average RWA for Credit Risks (2) Loans to customers
-17.5% -14.2% -13.2% -7.1% OUTSTANDING TRACK RECORD IN REDUCTION OF NON STRATEGIC ASSETS IN GERMANY RER: recent evolution(Credit Exposure, bn) SCP: recent evolution(Credit Exposure, bn) (1) (1) • RER portfolio reduced by ~79% since creation (15.4 bn as of 31.12.2004) • 3.8 bn reduction achieved since creation (~ -20%), o/w 1.3 bn in the last 4 months • ~500 mln reduction in the last 4 months achieved through successful day-by-day workout (1) 1Q07 based on Feb 07 data
STRONG CONTRIBUTION FROM ALL DIVISIONS TO EVA GENERATION 1H07 TOTAL REVENUES 1H07 OPERATING PROFIT 1H07 ALLOCATED CAPITAL 1H07 EVA
CAPITALIA DELIVERING SOLID COMMERCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS: GOOD ADDITIONAL NETWORK FOR FUTURE GROWTH IN ITALY • Solid operating profit growth in 1H07 (+10.2% y/y) driven by strong commercial performance in all major banks of the Group • Revenues rise 9.8% y/y, mainly thanks to strong net interest income reflecting solid trend in business volumes, both on the deposit and lending side • Cost income further down to 56.2% in 1H07, improving by over 3 p.p. y/y • Net doubtful loans stable with decreasing ratio on net loans of 30 bp on Dec06; coverage ratio stable at 63% • Negligible exposure to the areas affected by the recent market turmoil (zero US Sub-prime; only 65 mln loans to conduits)
POSITIVE TREND OF COMMERCIAL RESULTS IN 1H07 BOTH IN RETAIL AND CORPORATE • Significant volume expansion: customer deposits up 17% y/y, customer loans +15% y/y, increasing market shares (6.8%(1) on deposits, +40 bp y/y; 5.9%(1) on customer loans, +20 bp y/y) • Good performance in Retail products inflows +31.7% +1.5x +2.1x +4% +17.8% +34% 284 3,211 3,083 893 758 212 678 2,175 137 1H 05 1H 06 1H 07 Avg 05 Avg 06 Avg 1H07 1H 05 1H 06 1H 07 New Credit Cards issued Life premiums Retail Mortgage inflows • Corporate loans increase 25% y/y (on average volumes) with strong upward trend in all key corporate lending products and good performance across all commercial banks (1) Estimate
Pre IAS STABLE DOUBTFUL LOANS WITH DECREASING WEIGHT ON CUSTOMER LOANS NET DOUBTFUL (mln) COVERAGE DOUBTFUL (%) -33.1% +14.5pp 6,447 5,781 +0.3% +0.1% 1,904 1,345 4,298 4,304 4,316 63.4 62.9 63.0 1,084 Watchlist 971 916 52.5 48.5 4,543 4,436 3,214 3,332 3,399 NPLs 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 06/07 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 06/07 Net Doubtful/Net Loans (%) 8.6 7.6 5.2 4.5 4.2 • Further reduction of net doubtful / net loans ratio from 4.5% as of Dec. 06 to 4.2% as of June 07 • Confirmed sound doubtful loans coverage ratio: 63% as of June 07 vs 62.9% as of Dec. 07
253 28% 30% 42% 342 231 Gross provisions on credits Write-backs Net loan loss provisions PROVISIONS INCREASE DUE TO LOWER LOAN WRITE-BACKS AND TREVI IMPACT LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS & WRITE-BACKS (mln) PROVISIONS ON FINANCIAL ASSETS (mln) • 64 mln provisions on financial assets in 1H07 (vs 11 in 1H06) of which 612 550 • TREVI 62 mln linked to: • rising interest rates • collections and legal expenses trend • loan portfolio impairment 476 208 245 359 1H 06 2H 06 1H 07
AGENDA 1H07 Results First steps of the integration with Capitalia US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure Conclusions
Paolo Fiorentino appointed as new Capitalia CEO • Clearance from Antitrust expected by end of September; merger October 1 • Integration started at full speed SMOOTH AND RAPID INTEGRATION WITH CAPITALIA • Quick agreement with Unions on rightsizing signed well in advance of expectations • Limited exercised withdrawal rights (3.136%(1) of Capitalia’s share capital), equivalent to Euro 573 mln (1) As of September 3
AGREEMENT WITH UNIONS ON RIGHTSIZING REACHED WELL IN ADVANCE, ~5,000 FTES INVOLVED Union agreement signed last August 3rd vs. year end 2007 Room for staff rightsizing leveraging on natural attrition and early retirement Key elements • Voluntary exits through incentive plan • Personnel becoming eligible for pension within 2010 • First wave in October Incentivated exits Estimated 5,000 people involved • Voluntary exits funded through Banking Social Fund’s contribution • Personnel becoming eligible for pension within July 1st 2015 (max 3,000 in 3 years) • First wave in January 2008 Banking social fund • Leverage on natural attrition and on internal mobility in order to reach a better rightsizing Other instruments Agreement reached before the merger, paving the way to a quick Group’s reorganization
CAPITALIA MERGER PROCESS FULLY BENEFITS FROM UNICREDIT DOMESTIC INTEGRATION EXPERTISE Extensive integration task force: more than 1,500 people involved, 95 internally managed projects across 12 Divisional / Functional Areas • New Unicredit/Capitalia branches plan • First Retail joint initiatives (e.g. ATMs sharing at no charge) • Legal integration path and IT plan • Internal and external communication plan DONE • Segmentation criteria for customer allocation • Common brand strategy MID SEPT Key goals • New Unicredit Holding, including Capitalia personnel • Consolidated regulatory reporting and capital ratios, centralized Treasury • Joint product initiatives OCTOBER 1ST • Unified divisional budget process • MBO model for network defined • Consolidated managerial and credit reporting END 2007
CAPITALIA WITHDRAWAL LIMITED CONFIRMING MARKET CONFIDENCE ON THE VALUE CREATION OF THE DEAL Only 3.136%(1) of Capitalia’s share capital involved in the withdrawal, equivalent to Euro 573 mln • UniCredit BoD will decide whether to call the EGM to resolve on the proposal of removal of the statutory clause concerning voting right limitation (making void the withdrawal right) September 18 If the UniCredit BoD decides not to call the EGM • OFFER IN OPTION at the withdrawal price(2) • the shares for which the withdrawal right has been exercised areto be offered to the other Capitalia shareholders in proportion to the number of shares held • the shareholders who have exercised the option right may also exercise a pre-emptive right for the purchase of the shares for which the option has not been exercised September 4 / October 3 • Offer on the market (for 5 consecutive trading days) of the shares not been placed through the option process October By end of January • The shares which are not placed on the market shall be purchased by UniCredit (after merger completion) (1) As of September 3 (2) Euro 7.015 per share
AGENDA 1H07 Results First steps of the integration with Capitalia US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure Conclusions
NEGLIGIBLE EXPOSURE FOR UNICREDIT TO US SUB-PRIME… • Exposure to US sub-primes: • RMBS collateralized by US sub-prime mortgages (mainly vintage, 2002-2003), still AAA rated • CDO with sub-prime collateral: 90% still investment grade, 70% AA or better at the end of August • Retained interest held by Pioneer (1) Exposure equivalent to 0.8% total regulatory capital(2) RMBS: Residential Mortgage Backed Securities CDO: Collateralized Debt Obligations (1) Off balance items include conduits with sub-prime exposure and investments in SIVs (2) On Unicredit reported total regulatory capital as of June 07
… AND TO CONDUIT BUSINESS Bavaria TRR exposure, Euro bn 0 (1) • Very quick response to market turmoil by reducing Bavaria TRR assets from 14 to 6 Euro bn • Extremely low exposure to 3rd parties conduits: total liquidity lines provided by HVB/BA-CA ~0.55 bn (1) Total Rate of Return Conduit
AGENDA 1H07 Results First steps of the integration with Capitalia US Sub-prime & Conduit exposure Conclusions
Well balanced portfolio with attractive business & geographical mix • Solid set of results delivered in 1H07 SUMMING UP • Full focus on execution, with Capitalia integration proceeding at full speed • Negligible exposure to US sub-prime and conduit business