Promoting R&D in North Africa Expert Group Meeting, 15 – 17 July 2008, Rabat

1. International and National Collaboration to Enhance the Effectiveness of Agricultural Research-for- Development in North Africa Promoting R&D in North Africa Expert Group Meeting, 15 – 17 July 2008, Rabat K. Shideed, ICARDA

2. The Context of Agriculture in Developing Countries in Dry Areas • Food and feed insecurity • Rural poverty (majority of poor are in rural areas) • Natural resources Scarcity/ degradation • Declining share of public spending allocated to agriculture • Poor countries are net food importers • Farming is the main market for jobs • Widening income inequality • Increasing food prices

3. Natural Scarcity of Water in Dry Areas Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita • Most countries in dry areas are facing increasing water scarcity • MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region • Highest water withdrawn in dry areas • Future projections of population growth suggest further decrease in per capita water availability in dry areas (from 1100 m3/yr to 550 m3/yr in 2050) • Increased competition on water • More research investment for efficient, sustainable , and equitable water use Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)

4. Water Poverty in Dry Areas Water resources are misused and are not managed sustainably, thus contributing to scarcity

5. Water poverty contributes greatly to the low HDI (human poverty) of poor countries in dry areas Direct relationship between access to water and access to food and feed security Irrigation accounts for 80-90% of all water used in dry areas Increasing competition on water is expected to reduce agriculture share to 50% by 2050 Implications of Water Scarcity on Human Poverty and Access to Food Water Poverty Index (WPI) and HDI for non-tropical dry-area countries Access to water and food in developing countries and countries in transition

6. Low FWUE: Status the level of efficiency % of Farmers TE (Av.)

7. Estimated Technical Efficiency and the Cost of Inefficiency Note: Inefficiency was calculated in terms of over use of irrigation water in achieving the same level of crop yield. * based on the cost of groundwater (0.31 Dh/m3) ** based on the cost of surface water (0.22 Dh/m3)

8. Intensity of public agricultural R&D (Total public agricultural R&D spending as a percentage of agricultural GDP) Source: Pardey, P.G., N. Beintema, S. Dehmer, and S. Wood. 2006. Agricultural Research: A Growing Global Divide? IFPRI, Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Initiative, Washington D.C. August 2006

9. Research Intensity in Public Agricultural R&D in Selected CWANA Countries (Agricultural R&D spending for $100 of Ag GDP)

10. Educational Attainment of Researchers for Selected CWANA Countries

11. Composition of Ag Research Expenditures, in selected CWANA countries, 2002 (%)

12. Production Growth Rates (%) CWANA Region 2.9 Yemen - 1.1 Uzbekistan* 7.7 Turkmenistan* 9 Turkey 2.1 Tunisia 1.2 Tajikistan* 7.7 Syria 3. 7 Sudan 2.6 Somalia 1 Saudi Arabia 7.6 Pakistan 3.5 Oman 1.4 Morocco 1 Mauritania 2.4 Libya 1.4 Lebanon 0.7 Kyrgyzistan* 3.1 Kazakhstan* - 4.7 Jordan - 2.3 Iraq 0.4 Iran 3.5 Ethiopia 1.6 Egypt 3 Algeria 0.5 Afghanistan - 0.9 - 9 - 4 1 6 Cereal growth rates in CWANA Countries, 1961 – 2002 • NA countries maintained positive growth rates in cereal production over the last four decades • Egypt is the only country that achieved higher growth rates (above regional average)

13. Major Challenges of Dry Areas Grain gap in 30 CWANA countries (excluding Turkey and Kazakhstan) Source: World Bank 1993

14. Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Setting Ag. Res Priorities

15. Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Importance of Agro-ecologies

16. Criteria and Weights (%) Attached in Identifying Priorities

17. Effectiveness of International and National Cooperation: Impact on Household Income - (Faba Bean) Average Net Return ($) Gini Coefficient

18. Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Impact on Household Food Security - (Faba bean) Average production per HH (kg)

19. Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Documenting the Impact of Wheat Improvement Research • Assessing the Economic Impact of Durum Wheat Research in Morocco • $ 111 M of NPV • IRR = 31% • All released varieties are driven from Morocco and ICARDA/CIMMYT germplasm

20. Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Impact of Investment in Barley Improvement • The internal rates of return (IRR) to research investment suggest that public expenditures in agricultural R&D are achieving high dividends. • Returns to investments in barely germplasm improvement, for example: • 51% for Morocco. • 38% for Tunisia • 32% for Egypt • 30% for Algeria, Ethiopia and Syria

21. Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Impact Of NRMR Environmental benefits estimated at $425/ha Impact of Atriplex on Feeding Cost Nearly 25% increase in flock size (Ewes) is due to Atriplex Plantation

22. Promoting R&D: Targeting R&D Investments through Poverty Mapping (combining financial and NR indicators)

23. Promoting R&D: Improved Water Technologies (SI) to Increase Crop Production Efficiency • Improved Irrigation Technology (SI) • Improved Germplasm • Enabling policy environment (credit, input and output price support)

24. Promoting R&D: Improved MWH to Increase Production Efficiency in Marginal Areas(Importance of Improved technology and Environmental Benefits)

25. Promoting R&D: The Need for Enabling Policy Environment Adoption Path of Atriplex Alley Cropping in Morocco Importance of Enabling Policy Environment to Enhance the Technology Adoption and Its Impact

26. Promoting R&D: The Use of Participatory Approaches and Benchmarks • Represent and capture the diversity of biophysical and socioeconomic conditions found in agro-ecological zones • Adopt INRM approach • end-users as essential partner in the R&D process • agricultural development as a complex, non-linear and social process • Multidisciplinary • From top-down to participatory approaches • On-farm research, where technologies are developed together with end-users • Involves a wide range of stakeholders with multiple interests (sometimes conflicting) It is good practice INRM with the understanding of scaling-out and scaling-up of technologies and underlying processes

27. Promoting R&D to Maximize Impact: The Need for Scaling-out and Scaling-up Approaches • Livelihood characterization and baseline information (different scales) • Targeted research to producing knowledge and technologies to solve problems faced by a broad range of farmers • Research priority setting (potential for adoption and impact) • Concentrating research in a geographically defined area, and better integration among breeders, social scientists and NR scientists • Building Scaling-out and scaling- up approaches • Creating an enabling policy environment for the technologies/ solutions

28. Promoting R&D: Enhancing Integration among the Pillars of Agricultural Research Diversification Options

29. Lessons Learned • Community-based and participatory approaches • Indigenous knowledge (understand, document and supplement indigenous knowledge with modern tools and technologies • Enabling policy and institutional environment (technology alone is not sufficient to achieve impact) • Water productivity (the shift in research focus from yield per unit area to productivity per unit of applied water • Environmental benefits (importance to justify investments in dry areas) • Integration and interdisciplinary

30. Main Messages and Issues: Resource use efficiency and enabling policy to improve the livelihoods of rural communities in NA The need for rigorous research to answer the following questions: • How to address resource use efficiency, productivity and profitability? • How to ensure sustainability under highly stressed NR base, rapidly changing land use and climate variability? • What are the alternative options to improve the livelihoods of the farming communities? • What is the enabling policy and institutional environment to enhance the uptake and impact of improved technologies? • How to better link farmers to markets, and minimize market risks?

31. Main Messages and Issues: Sources of Growth and Research Funding • Expansion in crop area was a major contributor to cereal growth rates in the last 4 decades. This is no longer a viable option given increased water scarcity • Future growth rates in food production needs to come from productivity enhancement • Private R&D contribution is expected to stay minimal in productivity-enhancing research of staple crops. • Publicly funded agricultural R&D will continue as the main source of productivity-enhancing research in NA. • Spillovers of agricultural science and technology within and among countries have been a key feature of agricultural development.

32. Recommendations for Promoting R&D in NA • To enhance the effectiveness of public investments in agricultural science and technology: • Enhance technology strategies and priority setting in line with their comparative advantages, resource endowments, and contribution to the developmental goals • Understand the evolution and identify complementary roles of different research partners, including NARS, ARIs, and CGIAR Centers • Define options and opportunities for optimizing the contribution of agricultural R&D • Carry out ex-ante and ex-post research evaluation for accountability and resource allocation purposes to maximize impact.

33. Recommendations for Promoting R&D in NA • Revisiting R&D priorities with the aim of factoring the global, regional and national developments that have occurred over the past few years. This includes • Assess NA capacity to address emerging research issues (shifting of research focus toward poverty alleviation, NRM,…) • Developing an action plan to implement the priorities (funding, resource allocation) • Harmonizing and integrating the activities of regional and international organizations within NA research priorities (based on comparative advantages)

34. Thank You for Your Attention