Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 February 16, 2010

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10 • On Line: 2008 Class • Reference list from course • Rood Blog Data Base • Reading

3. Make Up Class / Opportunity • Make up Class on March 8, Dana 1040, 5:00 – 7:30 PM, Joint with SNRE 580 • V. Ramanathan, Scripps, UC San Diego • Please consider this a regular class and make it a priority to attend. • Pencil onto calendar on April 6, Jim Hansen, time TBD.

4. Class Projects • Think about Projects for a while • The role of the consumer • Energy efficiency / Financing Policy • Science influence on policy, Measurements of carbon, influence • Role of automobile, transportation, life style • Water, fresh water, impact on carbon, • Geo-engineering, public education, emergency management, warning, • Water, insurance, Midwest development, Michigan, regional • Dawkins, socio-biology • What leads to a decision • What does it really mean in the village • Geo-engineering, urban sustainability • US Policy, society interest, K-12, education

5. Project Teams • Michigan Coal / Energy: Maggie Allan, Meghan Reynard, Evan Oswald, Yoichi Shiga • Efficiency as effective mitigation: Rebecca Taylor, Erin Kashawlic, Rajesh Nerlikar, Amanda Herrick

6. Projects; Short Conversation • “Geo-engineering” --- managing heating in the near-term / Role of Attribution / Managing the climate, what climate information is needed / Air quality • Transportation / Automobiles / Energy / Market / • Weather / Extreme Events / Agriculture / Carbon Sinks / Local Adaptation

7. Next week • Groups that have organized a short presentation, discussion • Title • Your vision • What disciplines are present in your group

8. Today: complete the basic picture we need • Aerosols • Internal Variability • Feedbacks: Response to a change in forcing • Important details that we have to remember • Land surface / land use changes • Other green house gases • Air quality • Abrupt climate change

9. Summary Points Theory / Empirical Evidence CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Correlated Observations CO2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Observations CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing”

10. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. { Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How?

11. Aerosols • Aerosols are particulate matter in the atmosphere. • They impact the radiative budget. • They impact cloud formation and growth.

12. Some important things to know about aerosols • They can directly impact radiative budget through both reflection and absorption. • They can indirectly impact radiative budget through their effects on clouds  both reflection and absorption. • They have many different compositions, and the composition matters to what they do. • They have many different, often episodic sources. • They generally fall out or rainout of the atmosphere; they don’t stay there very long compared with greenhouse gases. • They often have large regional effects. • They are an indicator of dirty air, which brings its own set of problems. • They are often at the core of discussions of geo-engineering

13. Radiative Forcing IPCC 2007

14. Sources of internal variability • This is natural variability. • Solar variability • Volcanic activity • Internal “dynamics” • Atmosphere - Weather • Ocean • Atmosphere-ocean interactions • That does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes.

15. Internal Variability? • There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. • El Nino – La Nina • What is El Nino • North Atlantic Oscillation • Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation • Annular Mode • Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic • Pacific Decadal Oscillation

16. Some good El Nino Information • NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Nino / La Nina • NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Nino • This is a hard to get to educational tour. This gets you in the middle and note navigation buttons on the bottom.

17. An interesting time to study? GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Nino

18. Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation • Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO): • Pacific Decadal Oscillation • Climate Prediction Center (CPC): • 90 Day Outlook Summary • Weather and Climate Linkage • National Climatic Data Center (NCDC): • Decadal Oscillations • Review Paper from Rood Class References • Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

19. Today: complete the basic picture we need • Aerosols • Internal Variability • Feedbacks: Response to a change in forcing • Important details that we have to remember • Land surface / land use changes • Other green house gases • Air quality • Abrupt climate change

20. Changes in the sun THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING Things that change reflection Things that change absorption If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface. So what matters?

21. More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere • FEEDBACKS .... • The idea that one thing causes a second thing to happen. • That second thing then does something to the first thing • It damps it, negative feedback • It amplifies it, positive feedback • Technical Reference: Soden and Held

22. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE The Earth System: Feedbacks 1Infrared Proportional to Temperature • Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same • Infrared emission is proportional to temperature • Temperature increases  emission increases

23. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE The Earth System: Feedbacks 2Water Vapor • When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere • Higher temperature increases evaporation from land and ocean • Higher temperature allows air to hold more water • Increase of water increases thickness of blanket – increases temperature more • This could runaway! • Natural limit because of condensation  clouds, rain? • Compensating circulation changes? • Think deserts …

24. The Earth System: Feedbacks 3Ice - Albedo • When it gets warmer less ice • Less ice means less reflection  warmer • Warmer means less ice • This could runaway! • Cooler works the other way  ice-covered Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ICE

25. The Earth System: Feedbacks 4Clouds? • Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact • Warmer  more water  more clouds • More clouds mean more reflection of solar  cooler • More clouds mean more infrared to surface  warmer • More or less clouds? • Does this stabilize? • Water in all three phases essential to stable climate Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space CLOUD ATMOSPHERE (infrared) SURFACE

26. The Earth System: Feedbacks 5Something with the Ocean? • Is there something with the ocean and ice? • Land ice melting decreases ocean salinity (density) • Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere • Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean • North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate • Think Gulf Stream • Think climate and people and economy • Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? • Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

27. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback • Some carry away messages • This is where much of the discussion about scientific uncertainty resides. • The Earth is at a complex balance point • That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases. • Too warm could run away to “greenhouse” vapor • Too cold run away to “snowball” ice • How clouds change is not well understood and much argued. • The Iris Effect? • Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by more cooling?

28. CLOUD-WORLD SUN Earth System: Ice • ICE: • Very important to reflection of solar radiation • Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise) • Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice) • Ice impacts both radiative balance and water – oceans and water resources on land. • . • Large “local” effects at pole. • Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting. • Might change very quickly. ATMOSPHERE OCEAN LAND ICE (cryosphere)

29. non-polar glaciers and snow Ice Sheets (Greenland) (Antarctica) sea-ice The Earth System: ICE(Think a little more about ice) Impacts regional water supply, agriculture, etc. Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere heat exchange Solar reflection, Ocean density, Sea-level rise (Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

30. The Cryosphere • TOUR OF CRYOSPHERE: MAIN NASA SITE

31. Let’s think about the Arctic for a while • WWF: Arctic Feedbacks Assessment

32. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

33. The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)(The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean) Blue shading, low salt Green shading, high salt Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents. From Jianjun Yin, GFDL, see J. Geophysical Research, 2006

34. Increase greenhouse gases reduces cooling rate  Warming Cloud feedback? ATMOSPHERE Aerosols cool? Water vapor feedback accelerates warming OCEAN ICE Cloud feedback? Ice-albedo feedback accelerates warming LAND Changes in land use impact absorption and reflection The Earth System SUN Solar variability

35. Abrupt climate change • The predictions and observations so far are either in the sense of: • Relatively small changes in the dynamic balance of the climate system • Incremental changes to the stable climate. • What about “abrupt” climate change?

36. Note to professor: Force students to think and speak • What might cause something to change abruptly in the climate system? • Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change • NAS: Abrupt Climate Change • Wunderground.com: Abrupt Climate Change

37. What is a stable climate? LIQUID - ICE NOAA Paleoclimate Schlumberger

38. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Younger Dryas POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION

39. Next time: Fundamental Science of Climate