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Maximizing Accuracy: Addressing Discrepancies in Census Enumeration

Highlighting disparities in Census enumeration, such as overcounting certain groups like non-Hispanic Whites and undercounting minorities. Discuss the consequences of differential undercount and the challenges faced in achieving a cost-effective, accurate Census. Explore policy issues like funding, methodology modernization, and potential hurdles. Emphasize the importance of coordination, outreach, and training for a successful Census.

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Maximizing Accuracy: Addressing Discrepancies in Census Enumeration

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  1. THE PROBLEM The census is not an equal opportunity enumeration! • Overcount (easier-to-count groups) • Non-Hispanic Whites • Homeowners (proxy for higher-income) • College students living away from home • Older people • Undercount (harder-to-count groups) • People of color; American Indians on reservations • Males • Young children (ages 0-4) • Renters (proxy for lower income), both urban and rural • Immigrant/LEP households

  2. THE CONSEQUENCES • National netundercount virtually zero in 2010 BUT − • Undercounts and overcounts don’t cancel each other out at local level RESULT = Differential undercount

  3. THE CHALLENGE FOR 2020 Congressional directive: • Keep 2020 Census cost at or below 2010 Census cost (~$13 billion) Census Bureau goals: • Modernize census methods and operations • Contain costs • Maintain accuracy & data quality Policy hurdles: • Insufficient and/or late annual funding • Potential riders: Efforts to exclude undocumented residents • Proposals to undermine the ACS through voluntary response or eliminate survey altogether • Post election effect: committee assignments, political dynamics, the unknown

  4. THE RANGE OF POLICY ISSUES Adequate funding • For 2020 Census planning, design, and operations Revised race and ethnicity questions Primary reliance on Internet response Wide use of administrative records to build address list • Identify vacant housing, and possibly count some unresponsive households Reduced "footprint" in the field • Fewer local offices and census takers Final decision on where to count incarcerated persons (so-called Residence Criteria).

  5. MOVING FORWARD Coordination CoordinationCoordinationCoordination • Issue Spotting As We Go • Field Outreach • Rapid Response • Communications • Training • What else?

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