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Pandaigdigang Krisis sa Pinansya

Pandaigdigang Krisis sa Pinansya. Katapusan na nga ba ng Kapitalismo?. October 2008. Discussion Outline. Ang Financial Crisis at Saklaw Nito Ugat ng Financial Crisis : Sistemang Monopolyo Kapitalismo Epekto sa Ekonomya ng Pilipinas at Manggawang Pilipino

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Pandaigdigang Krisis sa Pinansya

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  1. Pandaigdigang Krisis sa Pinansya Katapusan na nga ba ng Kapitalismo? October 2008

  2. Discussion Outline Ang Financial Crisis at Saklaw Nito Ugat ng Financial Crisis: Sistemang Monopolyo Kapitalismo Epekto sa Ekonomya ng Pilipinas at Manggawang Pilipino Tugon ng Manggagawa at Mamamayan ng Buong Daigdig

  3. Worst fin. crisis since the ’70s • Collapse of 3 out of 5 biggest investment banks • Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch • Collapse of world’s largest insurance firm • American Insurance Group (AIG) • Banking status for bankruptcy protection • Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley • World’s biggest bank collapse • Washington Mutual

  4. What happened in Wall Street? • March-08 – Bear Sternsbailed-out by JP Morgan with US$30 B backing of US Federal Reserve • Sep 7-08 – • Fannie Mae& Freddie Macbailed-out by Fed w/ up to US$100 B each • US$1.8 trillion in assets • Sep 14-08 – • Lehman Brothers (US’s 4th largest investment bank) files for bankruptcy with US$613 B in debt • Merrill Lynch (US’s 3rd largest investment bank) bought by Bank of America for US$50 B • US$1.5 trillion in assets • Sep 16-08 – • American Insurance Group, AIG(US’s largest insurer) bailed-out by Fed with US$85 B loan • US$1 trillion in assets • Largest nationalizations and transfer of debt in history

  5. Mga Naunang Krisis sa Pinansya • 1929 Wall Street Crash  Great Depression • 1987 “Black Tuesday”  bailout package of $500 billion • 1997 Asian Crisis

  6. Ang Pangingibabaw ng Kapital sa Pinansya

  7. Pribadong pag-angkin Sosyalisadong paggawa • Di maiiwasan ang mga krisis ng labis na produksyon sa ilalim ng Kapitalismo Basic Contradiction

  8. Mga Lundo ng Krisis • 1870  bunsod ng pagdami ng mga kapitalistang bansa; paghahanap ng mga bagong kolonya/merkado • 1911 – unang pangkalahatang krisis ng kapitalismo bilang imperyalismo; nagresulta sa WW1 • 1929 – ikalawang pangkalahatang krisis ng imperyalismo; nagresulta sa WW2 • ’60s-’70s – stagflation; wars of national liberation • ’87-’98 – financial crashes in the US, Asia, Russia and Brazil

  9. Mula pagitan ng 1911 at 1929, lumaki ang pagsalig ng monopoly capitalists sa financial markets upang makailag sa epekto ng overproduction

  10. Securities – certificates or electronic book entries representing financial value, and traditionally used as a means of raising new capital. • Debt securities – banknotes, bonds, debentures, notes, commercial paper, deposits. • Equity securities – common stocks

  11. Financialization Speculative/ fictitious capital New derivatives (ABS, CDO, MBS, hedge funds) Financial economy Stocks, bonds, mutual funds mortgages, loans Real economy Production (industry, agri)

  12. 1980s 2000s Massive growth in digital “financial economy” versus real economy • Less than 4 times GDP (1980) • Over 9 times GDP (2007) • Financial services only 5% of US private sector jobs

  13. Decreasing share of labor, increasing share of corporate profits Shares in national income, 1970-2005 Wages & salaries Corporate profits Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities By 2006:smallest share of income on record By 2006:highest since 1950

  14. Paglikha ng mga “bula” • Likas sa financial capital • May “sariling buhay” labas sa real economy (speculation-driven) • May life span tiyak na sasambulat

  15. 2007 sub-primebust 1990s dot.com bust Paglikha ng mga “bula”

  16. Ang Kasalukuyang Fin. Crisis

  17. Rising house prices fuelling debt-driven consumption • Cheap housing loans driving demand, increasing house prices by 80% since 2000 • Speculative, self-feeding and no basis in real economy • House prices increased faster than housing rents, incomes, interest rates and the economy • Disposable income falling • Rising house prices and “wealth effect” • collateral for further debt and borrowing • encourages continued consumption • BUTonly while house prices rise

  18. 1980s 2000s Soaring household debt

  19. “Securitization” of mortgages Sold to other banks and investors Bundled as MBS, CDO, etc. Subprime loans (5% interest)

  20. Unemployment/falling wages Mortgage payment defaults Foreclosures House prices fall Stock values of big banks fall Bank collapse, credit crunch Ang nangyari…

  21. The Fallout Various estimates: Minimum US$400 B in mortgage-credit losses (c/o The Economist)  will reduce net lending by US$910 billion US$945 B worldwide (c/o IMF) Initial US$1-2 trillion, w/c is enough to create a systemic banking crisis (c/o N. Roubini) US$25-30 trillion worldwide (c/o FT)

  22. Pagkakataon ang krisis upang lamunin ng iba pang dambuhalang kapitalista ang mga bumabagsak na kumpanya  ibayong konsentrasyon ng kapital “At the end of last year, the three lenders that are now the largest in US banking—Bank of American Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc.—collectively held 21.4 percent of all US deposits. Now, with this month’s government-backed sales of the banking assets of Washington Mutual Inc. to JPMorgan and of Wachovia Corp. to Citigroup, the Big Three instantly have a combined 31.3 percent of US deposits...” Wall Street Journal (Sept. 30)

  23. Impact on the real economyin the US An estimated 2.4 million or 1 in every 50 households in the US face foreclosure. Savings, health insurance, and retirement funds of millions of ordinary Americans who were enticed to invest in pension funds and assorted financial instruments will also be wiped out as banks and investment houses write-down billions in assets Credit crunch  Recession 2008 3rd quarter job losses = 287,142 15 million jobless, 9.5% unemployment “Contagion” to the rest of the world economy

  24. Tugon ng US gov’t. Ayudahan ang mga kapitalista sa pinansya Ipapasan sa masa ang bigat ng krisis “pribado ang tubo pero sosyalisado ang pagkalugi” Repormahin ang kapitalismo, isalba ang sistema: more “regulations”, safety nets, etc. Bailout ay magdudulot ng paglaki ng depisito sa badyet at paglobo ng utang ng gobyernong US, magpapahina sa US dollar at magkakait ng mga pondong dapat mapunta sa kagalingan ng mamamayan. Kaya't sa halip na masolusyunan ang problema, inilalatag lamang nito ang mas malaking kombulsyon sa sistema.

  25. Pandaigdigang Epekto

  26. Impact of global financial turmoil • US, EU & Japan and the world economy • 52% of world GDP: EU (23%), US (22%), Japan (7%) • EU links with US • 24% of exports to US, 15% of imports from US • Japan links with US • 23% of exports to US, 12% of imports from US

  27. Impact of global financial turmoil • With collapse or crisis of financial institutions: • Investors in them lose their money • Further credit/finance for economic activity shrinks (drops in consumer spending/corporate investment) • … sets economic slowdown in motion • US$500 B in global credit-related losses by financial firms so far… eventually over a trillion dollars?(c/o Economist) • US$945 B worldwide (c/o IMF) • Initial US$1-2 trillion, w/c is enough to create a systemic banking crisis (c/o N. Roubini) • US$25-30 trillion worldwide (c/o FT) • Note: multiply by approx 14.5 to get total credit lost (financial leveraging)

  28. The International Labor Organization (ILO) warns that the global economic slowdown in 2008 will add at least 5 million workers to the ranks of the unemployed worldwide, raising the global unemployment rate to 6.1 per cent. This is based on a more optimistic scenario of 4.8% growth in global GDP, which has been revised downwards by the IMF. A deeper recession would add millions more to the 189.9 million unemployed as of 2007.

  29. Updates (as of Nov. 2008) • Germany and the other EU countries now officially in recession. • Collapse of German car industry • Layoff of 20,000 automobile workers in 2008

  30. US unemployment: 10 million as of November 2008 • Another half million added within January 2009. • Very low consumer confidence  falling market demand both for imports and local manufactures

  31. Epekto sa Pilipinas

  32. Impact sa Pilipinas ng kasalukuyang krisis pampinansya sa daigdig P2 Trillion wiped out in Philippine Stock Exchange(PSE) since August 2007 Paghigpit sa pautang: lower capital inflows to RP, higher cost of borrowing, interest rates Pagbagsak ng piso: Since the start of the year, the peso has fallen 12.3 percent against the dollar; tinatayang maaaring bumagsak sa P50= 1US$ Pagtumal ng exports ng kalakal: around 16% of RP exports direct to US; up to 70% indirectly dependent on US & EU markets (through export of intermediate goods to TNC subcontractors in China, Taiwan, Korea, ASEAN, etc. for assembly into final goods destined for US, EU & Japan)

  33. Impact sa Pilipinas ng kasalukuyang krisis pampinansya sa daigdig Pagtumal ng exports ng serbisyo: 90% of BPO revenues from US market Posibleng (?) pagbagal sa OFW deployment at pagliit ng halaga ng remittances: 33% of overseas pinoys in US; 51% of OF remittances from US Pagtaas ng presyo ng pagkain at petrolyo dahil sa ispekulasyon sa “commodites futures trading”. Sa bawat 10% pagtaas sa presyo ng pagkain, 2.3 M Pilipino ang bumabagsak below the poverty line. Sa bawat 10% increase sa presyo ng petrolyo, 160TH Pilipino bagsak sa poverty line Lahat ito ay nangangahulugan ng: lower internal and external demand  higher unemployment, lower incomes, lower social spending, higher taxes, etc. in the immediate future

  34. Mga posibleng higit na mapuruhan: • Manupaktura: • 125,000 manggagawa na ang tinanggal sa manupaktura mula july 2007-july 2008; • 1/3 ng total manufacturing employment sa bansa ay nasa export-processing zones/ ecozones • SMEs: 99.6% of formal sector establishments; 63% of formal sector employment • Construction • Wholesale & retail trade • Transport (dahil sa epekto sa presyo ng imported na petrolyo) • Agri (dahil sa presyo ng petroleum-based inputs, i.e. fertilizers at ispekulasyon) • BPO

  35. Tugon ng gobyernong Arroyo sa Pilipinas Denial, business-as-usual Fiscal stimulus  dagdag korupsyon, paglaki ng badyet deficit (P100 B sa 2008) at utang  dagdag na buwis “Targeted subsidies” pampakalma sa galit ng masa

  36. Partikular na pananagutan ng rehimeng US-Arroyo Pangangayupapa sa US at iba pang dayuhang monopolyo kapitalista para sa patuloy na suporta nila sa kanyang pananatili sa poder (“development aid”, military aid, etc.) Masugid na tagapagpatupad sa mga patakarang neoliberal para sa interes ng dayuhang kapital Fiscal reforms (VAT & other onerous taxes) + automatic debt servicing Pagpatay sa P125 wage increase bill, kontraktwalisasyon, etc. Sellout ng pambansang soberanya at patrimonya (JPEPA, RP-US FTA, oil & mineral exploration, etc) Charter change – not only for GMA pol agenda but also to serve US political & economic agenda War in Mindanao to justify cha-cha & US mil intervention

  37. Ano ang ating paninindigan sa harap ng kasalukuyang krisis? • Labanan ang pagtatangka ng malalaking lokal at dayuhang kapitalista na ipabalikat sa mga mamamayan ang buong bigat ng kasalukuyang krisis na nilikha nila  papel ng gobyerno • Palakasin ang ating paggigiit para sa • pagbasura sa RVAT sa langis, • pagtataas sa sahod nang P125 across the board, • mas malaking badyet para sa serbisyong panlipunan, • moratorium sa pagbabayad ng utang panlabas, • at iba pang demokratikong kahilingan ng mga mamamayan. • Palitan at panagutin si GMA • Pahigpitin ang ating pakikipagkaisa sa mga mamamayan ng ibang bansa na lumalaban sa panggigipit ng imperyalismo.

  38. Ang pangmatagalang solusyon sa pamalagiang krisis sa Pilipinas • Ibasura ang mga patakarang neoliberal • Tunay na reporma sa lupa • Pambansang industriyalisasyon • Sosyalismo • Sosyalisadong Pag-angkin para sa Sosyalisadong Paggawa

  39. Hindi kusang babagsak ang sistemang kapitalista sa daigdig at ang sistemang malakolonyal-malapyudal sa Pilipinas, sa kadahilanang patuloy na kinukumpuni at itinataguyod ang mga ito ng mga naghaharing-uri gamit ang lahat ng kanilang yaman at kapangyarihan, panlilinlang at karahasan upang manatali sila sa poder. Kailangan ang ibayong pagpupunyagi ng lahat ng pinagsasamantalahan at inaapi sa lipunan upang gibain ang mga naturang bulok na panlipunang istruktura at palitan ng isang alternatibong kaayusan kung saan may tunay na kalayaan, demokrasya at hustisyang panlipunan.

  40. Maraming salamat po!

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