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Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream

Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream. Philip Wolfe. Taking a different path. Achieving quantum change – the politics Vision to delivery – targets and directives Leadership or drift – UK energy policy Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios

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Renewable Energy Yesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream

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  1. Renewable EnergyYesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream Philip Wolfe ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  2. Taking a different path • Achieving quantum change – the politics • Vision to delivery – targets and directives • Leadership or drift – UK energy policy • Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios • Brave new world – renewable hotspots ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  3. Achieving quantum change – the politics ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  4. Key drivers for energy policy • Energy security • Environment – climate change • Economics – energy prices ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  5. Energy securityFossil fuel availability ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  6. EnvironmentClimate change trends ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  7. There’s still time ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  8. EconomicsStern report for HM Treasury • Stabilisation is essential and affordable • Global emissions need to be >25% below current levels in 2050 for <550ppm CO2eq • This will cost 1% of GDP p.a. • 75% less emissions per unit GDP in 2050 • Doing nothing could be equivalent to a 20% reduction in consumption ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  9. Say that again • Doing nothing costs 5 to 20% • Solving the problem costs 1% ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  10. Vision to delivery – targets and directives ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  11. The Energy Hierarchy Sustainable energy production Non-sustainable energy production Energy saving So what is ‘alternative’ energy? ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  12. The EU commitments for 2020 • Emissions reductions Binding • 20% unilateral, or • 30% if multilateral • Energy conservation Non-binding • 20% below current projections • Renewables Binding • 20% of total energy • 10% of transport fuels A lot of 20%’s total energy ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  13. 20% Renewables – EU vision ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  14. 0 Introduction • 1 Combined heat-and-power generation • 2 Expansion of renewable energies in the power sector • 3 CCS technologies • 4 Smart metering • 5 Clean power-station technologies • 6 Introduction of modern energy management systems • 7 Support programmes for climate protection and energy efficiency • 8 Energy-efficient products • 9 Provisions on the feed-in of biogas to natural gas grids • 10 Energy Saving Ordinance • 11 Operating costs of rental accommodation • 12 Modernisation programme to reduce CO2 emissions from buildings • 13 Energy-efficient modernisation of social infrastructure • 14 Renewable Energies Heat Act • 15 Programme for the energy-efficient modernisation of federal buildings • 16 CO2 strategy for passenger cars • 17 Expansion of the biofuels market • 18 Reform of vehicle tax on CO2 basis • 19 Energy labelling of passenger cars • 20 Reinforcing the influence of the HGV toll • 21 Aviation • 22 Shipping • 23 Reduction of emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases • 24 Procurement of energy-efficient products and services • 25 Energy research and innovation • 26 Electric mobility • 27 International projects on climate protection and energy efficiency • 28 Reporting on energy and climate policy by German embassies and consulates • 29 Transatlantic climate and technology initiative German policy ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  15. Leadership or drift – UK energy policy ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  16. Existing UK policies ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  17. Existing policies, measures and assumptionsMerchant power • RO1 achieves ~15% of electricity • Banding achieves diversity • Doesn’t harm onshore wind (not ‘net neutral’) • Planning & grid restrictions overcome • All energy planning to IPC2 • “Connect & manage” grid access • Beauly-Denny transmission upgrade • Renewable (electricity) Obligation • Infrastructure Planning Commission ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  18. Existing policies, measures and assumptionsTransport fuels • RTFO3 introduced and effective • Buy-out price that ensures quotas are met • Sustainability reporting is appropriate • UK market is as attractive as others • Bio-fuel duty rebates remain in interim 3Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  19. Existing policies, measures and assumptionsOnsite energy • Zero carbon new homes from 2016 • Building regs: CSH4 level 6 from 2016 • CERT5 effective for ‘micro-renewables’ • Appropriate multipliers for renewables • Positive planning • Extend ‘Merton Rule’6 nationwide • Encourage renewables in existing houses • Energy certificates in home info packs • Code for Sustainable Homes – Level 6 is ‘zero carbon’ • Carbon Emission Reduction Target (formerly EEC) • Larger developments require [10%] renewable energy ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  20. Energy White Paper “The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal … by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption … we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.” ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  21. Routemap to 2020 New measures needed ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  22. Changing the paradigm – 2020 scenarios ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  23. First: Cut energy consumption • Energy conservation measures • More efficient energy usage • Regulate against inefficient products • Regulate against parasitic loads • More efficient energy generation • Limit generating stations’ waste energy • UK consumption in 2020 same as now as a rough working assumption Next: More renewables … ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  24. Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – merchant power • Increased RO1 objective ~22% in 2020 • Set 25% quota and increase headroom • Retain buyout link to retail price index • Offshore super-grid? • Tidal lagoons, barrages and new large hydro? • Incentives for large scale CHP7 • Large thermal generators must use heat • Renewable Heat (or Gas?) Obligation • Measures to deliver biomass strategy • Renewable (electricity) Obligation 7 Combined heat and power ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  25. Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – transport fuels • Higher RTFO3 quotas – 13% (by volume) in 2020 • RTFO linked to sustainability measures • Availability of high blend fuels • Pumps on every large forecourt • Fuel duty rebate within Alternative Fuels Framework • Second generation bio-fuels • Incentives for high blend and flex-fuel vehicles • Lower vehicle excise duty • Tax breaks for company cars • Congestion charge exemptions 3 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  26. Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – onsite domestic • Building regulations for new homes • CSH4 level 4 from 2010, level 5 from 2013 • Smart metering roll-out programme • Retrofit programme for existing houses • 100,000 rising to 1,000,000 per annum • Owner occupiers and private landlords: • Feed-in tariffs for electricity; similar for heat • Stamp duty breaks, council tax concessions • Financing measures, mortgages and loans • Social rented and fuel poor: • Through local authorities and housing associations • Code for Sustainable Homes – Level 5 is ‘low carbon’ ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  27. Policies, measures and proposalsEnhanced plans – non-residential • A new Code for Sustainable Buildings • Equivalent to CSH4 – and in Building Regs • Heat networks in new developments • Regulatory system for heat networks • Positive planning • Progressively rising ‘Merton Rule’6 %s • Renewables in agriculture • Anaerobic digestion on 000’s of farms • Code for Sustainable Homes 6 Larger developments require [10%] renewable energy ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  28. Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  29. 20% Renewables – in EU ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  30. 20% Renewables – in UKWhere it might be ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  31. 20% Renewables – in UKWhat it might be ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  32. Renewables in total energy Today 2020 ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  33. Who pays? • The consumer pays (indirectly) for: • Obligations > Feed-in tariffs • Building Regulations (land-owner pays?) • Energy prices will rise • The taxpayer (via the Treasury) pays for: • Retrofit programme through local authorities • Fiscal incentives • Sources of funds: • NFFO7 surplus (and obligations buy-out funds?) • Auction of EU-ETS8 carbon allowances 7 The RO gets a surplus from Non-Fossil Fuel Order projects 8 Emission allocations in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme polluter ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  34. How much? Sir Nicholas Stern: • Worldwide incentives now $34bn p.a. • This should increase by: 2x to 5x ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  35. Brave new world – renewable hotspots ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  36. Elemental conversion technologies • New approaches in established technologies • Offshore wind • Tidal barrages and lagoons • Building-integrated PV and solar thermal • Higher volumes and efficiencies • Heat pumps • Micro-hydro • Emerging renewable technologies • Tidal stream energy • Wave energy conversion ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  37. Bio-energy conversion technologies • New approaches in established technologies • Sustainable biofuels • Bio-methane for the gas grid • Higher volumes and efficiencies • Biomass boilers and CHP • Anaerobic digestion • Emerging renewable technologies • Second generation biofuels • Microbial energy ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  38. More decentralised energy system • Heat networks • Intelligent distribution systems • Smart metering • Improved user interfaces • Real-time pricing • Active load management • Non-traditional storage options ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  39. New energy integration options • ‘On-site’ energy systems • Intelligent user interfaces • Small-scale CHP / fuel cells • ‘In-store’ energy systems • Renewable cooling • ‘On-farm’ energy systems Everyone is in the energy business ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  40. Some conclusions • On renewables: Never call it ‘alternative energy’ • On the fossil fuel age: The Stone Age didn’t end because they ran out of stones • On those who say: “There’s still time” ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

  41. Renewable EnergyYesterday’s alternative – tomorrow’s mainstream Philip Wolfe Renewable Energy Association www.r-e-a.net ISES David Hall Memorial Lecture - December 2007

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