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Assimilation of Continuous GPS Data into Kinematic Fault Models

Assimilation of Continuous GPS Data into Kinematic Fault Models. Jeff McGuire 1 , Paul Segall 2 , and Shin’ichi Miyazaki 3. 1 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 2 Stanford University 3 ERI, University of Tokyo. 1996-1998 Bungo Channel Aseismic Slip Transient. Time (yr).

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Assimilation of Continuous GPS Data into Kinematic Fault Models

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  1. Assimilation of Continuous GPS Data into Kinematic Fault Models Jeff McGuire1, Paul Segall2, and Shin’ichi Miyazaki3 1 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 2 Stanford University 3 ERI, University of Tokyo

  2. 1996-1998 Bungo Channel Aseismic Slip Transient Time (yr)

  3. Observation Equation x: Antenna Position Vs: Secular Velocity s: Transient Fault slip L: Benchmark Wobble f(t): Reference Frame error e: estimation error

  4. State Vector at Measurement Epoch K Fault Slip Benchmark Wobble Reference Frame Smoothing Parameters

  5. Observation equation: • Separates spatially coherent signals from local ones • Enforces positivity of slip-rate • Enforces a spatially smooth solution State Transition Equation: Current Fault Slip Model: • Encorporates random walk model of benchmark motion and slip-rate

  6. Extended Kalman Filter A Priori Estimate Backsmoothed Estimate Prediction: Residual Update

  7. Bungo Channel Event Summary • Up to ~.6 m of slip over 1 year between depths of 30-60 km • The Bungo channel event started about 1 month after the 2nd Hyuganada earthquake • There was no propagation between the Hyuga-nada earthquake afterslip and the Bungo channel event • The average stress-drop was about .15 M Pa (~1/10th of a ordinary earthquake) • A previously unidentified, Mw ~6.5 event occurred in • mid 1997 in the Hyuga-nada area

  8. Displacement (mm) Time from 1999.5 to 1999.9

  9. 1999 Cascadia Event Summary • Slip-Pulse like propagation with a centroid velocity of ~5 km/day • Mw ~ 6.9 • Maximum slip of ~ 6 cm • Slip confined between about 25 and 40 km depth • Average Stress Drop of about .015 M Pa • Stress Changes on the order of 10-5 * lithostatic drive rupture propagation over distances of ~200 km.

  10. The Network Inversion Filter and ACES • Monitor the bottom boundary of the seismogenic zone • Test constituitive laws for the aseismic region of faults just below the seismogenic zone. • Encorporate a true dynamic model for xk+1=t(xk) • -At what spatial/temporal scales does information about aseismic slip-rate become useful?

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