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Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport (PTO and / or PTA)

Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport (PTO and / or PTA). Jan Willem Proper Prague, May 25, 2012. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Orientation. Resilience. Context 9 / 11 Eyjafjallajökull : 2010

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Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport (PTO and / or PTA)

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  1. Resilience as an Imperativein Public Transport (PTO and / or PTA) Jan Willem Proper Prague, May 25, 2012

  2. Resilience as an Imperative in OrganizationsOrientation Resilience. Context • 9 / 11 • Eyjafjallajökull: 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRnf5oljjQM&feature=related • Fukushima:2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp2DP1cLXKM&feature=related

  3. Subject to austerity measures decided by Passos Coelho new government after the 78 billion euros loan granted by the "troika" in May 2011, Portugal tightens its belt. Public transport fares rocketed by 15%, civil servants gave up their 13th and 14th months salary, Lisbon and Porto subway, trams, bus and ferries will probably will be privatized by the end of 2012. Trade unions are fiercy opposed causing repeated strikes. Coehlo government proposes to merger Carris and Metro Lisboa, Soflusa and Transtejo (the two ferry companies), Metro Porto and the bus company STCP. The new Portuguese government seems determined to ignore the past and intends to deregulate public transport by the end of 2012 : "The State has clearly announced its intention to subcontract the operation of public transport, "said Alain Descamps. • The Prague Public Transit Company Inc. has been in financial difficulty since early 2009. The company and trade unions blame Prague City Hall for this, as it provided the company with less funds for common operations than in 2008. In June 2009, the trade unions issued a joint statement threatening strike action if Prague City Hall did not address the company’s troubled financial situation. Although this ultimatum ended in August, the strike alert continues.

  4. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Orientation • The relevance of Public / Passenger Transport: • Traditional and contemporary perspectives focus on interactions with spatial, economic, social and external related elements: • Degree of specialization (working-, leisure-, sports- and cultural city), • Political objectives: sustainable flows and networks, • Economical objectives: globalization, geographical differences, • Social relationships and cultural opportunities, • Smarter (urban) transport (less energy, technology and IT), • A customer-focused (public) transport (users at the heart of policy), • Safe and secure transport • Disturbances do not affect the users only.

  5. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsOrientation • Focus 1: Public transport organizations as object of experience: • Open systems: • Client (tendering) and customer (charters) processes; • Context of environments to input and output processes. • Balance between external and internal accomplishments: • Decision-making processes are result driven. Focus 2: Scope of research: • Public transport in European context; • Land-based public transport organizations; • Urban environment (agglomeration). Focus 3: Object of science: Systematic organizational approach: Extensive disruptions demand effective and efficient organizational approaches.

  6. Transport is big business

  7. Resilience as an Imperative in OrganizationsOrientation • Resilience:Capacity of an organization to survive, adapt and grow in the face of turbulent change • Resilience as common part of social or business corporate governance of organizations; • Interdependency within and between organizations increases; Examples of turbulent change: • Nature related (Eyjafjallajökull: 2010, Fukushima: 2011); • Market related (Mergers: CEVA, Veolia–Transdev / DB–Arriva: 2011); • Geopolitical (Egypt, Bahrain, Damascus: 2011, 2012); • Resources related (Commodity prices: 2012); • Deliberate attacks (London 2005, Minsk: 2011); • IT and external relations dependency (Codz: 2008, Vienna 2011).

  8. Resilience as an Imperative in OrganizationsOrientation • Resilience in PT organizations Acknowledging the properties of resilience: • International Accounting Standards Board: IFRS standards; • EU Council Directive (78/660/EU); • Sarbanes-Ocley Act (USA). Scope : Dutch and Belgian PTO, 3PL, 4PL • No specific reference to the concept of resilience; • Acknowledgement of possible events/ disturbances; • Diversified and fragmented accountability; • Lack of comprehensive research to enable them to become (more) resilient: • There is no framework in the public transport sector to structure this phenomenon; • No set of definitions; • Introduction of resilient organization management includes a capability structure. Awareness is a precondition to identification, assessment and response.

  9. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsOrientation Objective: Designing a framework to embed resilience in public transport organizations.

  10. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsOrientation: Objectives and structure

  11. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Objective 1“To establish the starting points and limitations regarding the (re-)design of a resilient public transport organization”. Structure: 1) Analysis of strategy statements to acknowledge (elements of) the property of resilience; • Structuring the environmental focus of PTO; 3) Finding: Contextual Resilience.

  12. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Objective 1“To establish the starting points and limitations regarding the (re-)design of a resilient public transport organization”. ref. 2: Structuring the environmental focus: Scope: Questa scenario project for public transport system: 2 A) Public Transport System: • analyze and define transport supply conditions and identify events that might occur, • analyze and define transport market conditions and identify events that might occur, • analyze and define system conditions and identify events that might occur,

  13. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 1“To establish the starting points and limitations regarding the (re-)design of a resilient public transport organization”. Structuring the environmental focus (2) 2 B) Context of the system: • Scope: DEPEST structure (Demographic, Economic, Political, Environmental, Social, Technological) • analyze and define context conditions and identify events that might occur. Contextual Resilience>> • Property that ensures that an organization has the capacity to identify its role and function in the context of possible disturbances.

  14. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 2 ‘’To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” • Structure: • 1) Guiding principles based on risk approaches; • 2) Resilience approaches in different disciplines; • Resilience strategies and frameworks in development; • 3) Structure of a conceptual strategic resilience framework; • 4) Case study with PTO and PTA: Generation of new information and verification of definitions, guiding principles and framework structure; • Finding: Cognitive resilience

  15. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” 1) Guiding Principles based on risk approaches: (literature and discussions). A) Perspectives: as generic conditions, - Environmentally based (exposure); - Discipline-based (awareness, identification, assessment, response); - Model-based (technical, economic, cultural, psychometric); - Inside and outside events. B) General conditions from existing methods and approaches (COSO, FMEA). - Proactive; - Objective and competence based; - Structured; - Relevant information; - Communication based; - Continuous process based. C) Conditions derived from institutional bodies of knowledge (ISO, IRM). - Disruption management is part of broader management approaches; - External and internal disruptive events create forces of change; - Events can be assessed and classified (strategic, operational, financial, compliance, knowledge).

  16. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” 2) Risk interpretations with boundaries: • Risk meanings: • Risk as an unwanted event; • Risk as the probability of an unwanted event (the magnitude); • Risk as the statistical expectation value of unwanted eventS (organization related); • Risk as the cause of an unwanted event. • Risks are categorized based on the probability of an event and its consequences or impact. • Knowledge about risk is limited (knowledge about the unknown) >> Low-probability/high-impact events

  17. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework”Boundaries to risk approaches:Unknown probabilities; Unforeseen dangers; Unknown reactions; Unknown total overview (organization level); Unintended consequences.

  18. Resilience as an Imperative Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” 3) The concept of risk defined: • RISK: The negative deviation from the expected value of a certain performance objective, resulting in undesirable consequences for the focal firm. • DISRUPTION: Unintended exceptional triggering event and a consequential situation which significantly threatens the normal course of business operations of the affected organization. • Areas of concern: Unforeseen disruptions; • SUSCEPTIBILITY:Sensitivity of existing organizational or functional conditions to disruption • Area of concern:Unknown susceptibilities.

  19. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” 4)Resilience approaches in different disciplines (literature search) - engineering; - ecological; - organizational; - psychological; - logistics. Resilience as a concept based on common elements from different disciplines; - complex systems are dynamic and can change abruptlyin a state of instability; - focus on actions to deal with unexpected disruptions and/or turbulent change; - contribution to adaptive process by developing (organizational) capabilities; - collaboration among functions and network members to overcome vulnerabilities. Definition: The capacity of an organization to survive, adapt and grow in the face of turbulent change

  20. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” 5)Resilience strategies and frameworks in development: (Cranfield, MIT,Ohio State, IBM, Council of Competiveness and others) First-order approaches: • Vulnerability: fundamental factors that makes an organization sensitive to disruptions; • Capabilities: attributes required for performance or accomplishment. Guiding Principles of the framework: • Resilience will provide competitive advantage and is performance based; • Resilience is based on a holistic view and part of the broader managementprocesses; • Strategic imperatives call for a more adaptive and structured approachto change; • Resilience is based on the concept of system development; • Resilience structures must have the ability to integrate with system partners.

  21. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” • Structure of a conceptual strategic resilience framework is based on: • Awareness of the concept of resilience (contextual resilience: RP:1 to 4 (incl. P-1); • Disruption analysis and vulnerability identification (RP: 5 and 6); • Internal control analysis and capability identification (RP: 7 and 8); • Effects of vulnerabilities and capabilities on resilience performance level (RP: 9) + Relation between resilience performance and business performance (RP: 10 and 11). Conceptual resilience framework (including in total: 11 research propositions)

  22. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Objective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” • Generation of new information and verification of framework structure and guiding principles • Case study 1: connected to research question 1 and 2. • Search for confirmatory evidence and for exceptions deserves equal care; • Structured approach (Preparation / Conducting interviews / Analysis / Empirical findings); • Structured interviews in PTO and Risk/Resilience sector; • Ongoing inclusion.

  23. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsObjective 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” 8) Findings on progress in developing a resilience approach: Case study approach with PTO and PTA • Awareness of advantages and complications of introduction of a resilience approach.

  24. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Result: 2“To structure and design a comprehensible and comprehensive framework” The conceptual orientation that enables an organization to identify, assess and respond in order to become a resilient organization by: • Acknowledgement of the verified definitions and guiding principles, • Acknowledgement of the verified framework structure, • Acknowledgement of the verified framework interrelations and loops, • Acknowledgement of advantages and complications of a resilience approach. is referred to as Cognitive resilience: Orientation that enables an organization to identify, assess and respond to disturbances in order to become a resilient organization.

  25. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsObjective 3:“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design:Design of vulnerability and capability factors” • Structure: • Identification of vulnerability factors (deductive approach); • Identification of capability factors (deductive approach); 3) Vulnerability factors after verification: 4) Capability factors after verification; 5) Progress in developing a resilience approach; Finding: Behavioral Resilience

  26. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 3:“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;Design of vulnerability and capability factors” 3)Identification of vulnerability factors (deductive approach):

  27. Resilience as an Imperative in OrganizationsObjective 3:“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;Design of vulnerability and capability factors” Example: Vulnerability factors with description and sub-factors;

  28. Resilience as an Imperative in OrganizationsObjective 3:“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;”Design of vulnerability and capability factors 4)Identification of capability factors (deductive approach);

  29. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 3:To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;Design of vulnerability and capability factors Example: Capability factors with description and sub-factors:

  30. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Objective 3:“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;Design of vulnerability and capability factors” 5)Verification of deductive approaches and generation of new information: Case study 2; Empirical research PTO related cohort. 6)Interview findings: 6.1 General findings: • Confirmation on definitions, framework guidelines, structure and interrelations; • The lists of vulnerability and capability factors are described as comprehensible and comprehensive to the PTO sector; • The PTO sector can define the effects of improved resilience on performance indicators: Performances are classified, based on the Framework of the World Economic Forum 2008.

  31. Performance indicators

  32. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Result 3 (1):“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;Design of vulnerability and capability factors” 7)Vulnerability factors after verification:

  33. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsResult: 3 (2)“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;Design of vulnerability and capability factors” 8)Capability factors after verification:

  34. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsResult: 3“To identify the main elements that create knowledge about the resilience design;Design of vulnerability and capability factors” 9.Findings on progress in developing a resilience approach: • Addressing resilience explicitly by TfL: • Based on compliance arguments; • Following the guiding principles; • No structured holistic approach; • No complete lists of vulnerabilities and capabilities. 10.The ability to use diagnostics proactively in the identification of potential vulnerability and capability factors that enable the organization to respond systematically when something unexpected occurs is referred to as: Behavioural Resilience Considered as a component of a resilience approach

  35. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations Objective 4:“To ensure that public transport organizations are able to make linkages between vulnerabilities and capabilities” • Structure • Ability to measure and rank vulnerabilities and capabilities; • Ability to identify critical linkages between vulnerabilities and capabilities; (potential of 84); Finding: Balanced Resilience;

  36. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Objective 4:“To ensure that public transport organizations are able to make linkages between vulnerabilities and capabilities” 3) Methodology to analyse linkages (potential of 84): Triangulation: • Existing literature and interview results; • Experiment with all possible linkages: • Design of questions from experiment to use in interviews • Classification of effects in classes (Strong, Moderate, Low/No effect) • Interview with PTO with selected linkages; • Expert meeting

  37. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Objective 4:“To ensure that public transport organizations are able to make linkages between vulnerabilities and capabilities”” • Expert meeting: To ensure managerial capabilities for applying resilience in public transport organizations within context of: • Ability to measure, rank and linking vulnerabilities to capabilities; • Relationships between resilience and business performance. Challenges: • Complexity increases: organizations are challenged more frequently externally; • Limited visibility: priority of day-to-day business interruptions rather than of • vulnerabilities; • Accountability is not clear: who is problem owner and what are responsibilities of the respective stakeholders? • Willingness to engage is limited: what are the benefits internally and externally? • Justification: absence of metrics in cost and revenue indicators; • Relevance in relation to other strategic issues: relevant but not urgent.

  38. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport OrganizationsCONCLUSIONS“To ensure that public transport organizations are able to make linkages between vulnerabilities and capabilities” • The concept of contextual resilience is considered important and public transport organizations are able to develop this. • The concept of cognitive resilience is accepted and public transport organizations are able to use the framework. • The concept of behavioural resilience is accepted and public transport organizations are able to analyze the vulnerabilities and capabilities presented, • Public Transport Organizations are able to work towards a balanced resilience approach.

  39. Resilience as an Imperative in Organizations“To ensure that public transport organizations are able to make linkages between vulnerabilities and capabilities” • Who takes the initiative?Public transport organizations need to introduce the management process of resilience systematically as an innovative action from a strategic point of view: • Because both risk and resilience management will become competitive elements in the future, knowledge of the resilience management process of public transport organizations needs to be improved. • Introduction of the resilience approach needs to be enforcedfrom the outside because introducing a resilient approach is possible, but its urgency is not evident

  40. Resilience as an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Conclusions and future directionsOverall research objective: Designing a framework to embed resilience in public transport organizations • With society demanding that the role of public transport shall be sustainable and public transport PTO/PTA be accountable; • With public transport facing new disruptions that demands new approaches; • With an approach to embed and manage resilience in public transport organizations. Resilience is an Imperative in Public Transport Organizations Thank you

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