Pitfalls problems & roadblocks

1. Pitfalls problems & roadblocks Diverts development & aid $ Increases the price of foods • Financial melt-down • National scale land purchases • Food  fuel ... • War on terror ... • Nations in bondage to IMF debt • Unfair trade practices • Climate change • Globalization of food economics • Clean water & air have become commodities Also  displaced persons & Destroys the local economy Vandana Shiva on globalization Vandana Shiva on Food Laws

2. Supplementary data & tables follow

3. Stunted children (poverty-trapped) 195 million worldwide 2008 http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf 3

4. Contrary view 2010 http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/hungerfree_scorecard.pdf http://aidwatchers.com/2010/09/%E2%80%9Cproofiness%E2%80%9D-trashing-back-on-fao-hunger-numbers/ William Easterly

5. 2010 UN 86% 587b ? Number of people (millions) adequately nourished (FAO data)

6. Ethiopia: on the development ladder 80% 2000 Fraction in poverty Decreasing poverty 30%

7. % Infant mortality < 5 years Still poverty trapped http://www.childinfo.org/mortality_infantmortality.phpalso www.gapmminder.org Singapore India USA

8. Porkbarrelling & Swiss bank a/c’s Tanks & rockets for right wing regimes, invasions for “freedom & democracy”, & depose “socialists” Treaties force unfair tariffs & trade. taxpayers in poor countries $ • $ commodities dictators $ taxpayers in rich (Nato?) countries multi-nationals • $ numbered bank a/c’s • $ “military-industrialcomplex” • $ • $ concessions Rich nationpoliticians  government election funds,inducements • $ Share-holders • $

9. 5 Nations where hunger is increasing http://www.ifpri.org/datasets

10. Prevalence of stunting >2SD http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf

11. amber bar is 1990; yellow is 2008 or .. MDGs: world progress % < $1.25 /day 2005 % undernourished 2006 % infant mortality 2006 green bar is target for 2015 H2O school pregnt

13. http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf

14. Nations in the poverty trapIn 5 of them hunger is increasing Nearly all are conflict zones, rich in resources or militarily strategic www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankings http://www.ifpri.org/datasets

15. http://www.lundinforafrica.org/s/Newsletter.asp

16. http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilitieshttp://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities Low share of phantom aid • Ireland • Luxemborg • Sweden • Denmark • Norway • Netherlands • UK 60% of US ODA goes to Iraq & Israel

17. Nothing helps Poverty will go MDGs are unachievable • They will be achieved Trillions wasted • We know what works & doesn’t Throwing $ at problems • They don’t need $ Corrupt dictators Corrupt multinationals It’s their own fault 2008 recession Will delay progress by 4-8 y Malthus

18. there is no reason for complacency or self-satisfaction • 10,000,000 kwash ward [= no of kids born in Can in 30 years] 35M birth rate 10/1000 = 350k kids/y] • The faster we move the less we have to cope with population growth,

19. Show as stacked histogram • %le rank Member countries • 90-100 NZ, Scand, Switz, Can, Aus, HK, W Eur & UK • 50-90 US, France, UAE, Israel, Botsw, SA, Namib, Turky • Kuwait, Ghana, Greece, China, Swaziland, India, Panama, Thailand • 33-50 Morocco, Malawi, Lesotho, Mex, Rwanda, SriLan, Liberia, Zambia, Senegal, Niger, Gambia, Argentina, Egypt, Algeria, Mali • 15-30 Vietnam, Ethiopia, Uganda, Nigeria, Lybia, Zimbabwe, Russia, Kenya, Ukraine • 5-10 Tajikistan, Cambodia, Laos, Central African Republic, Congo, Angola, Venezuela, • 0-5 Turkmenistan, Iran, Haiti, Guinea, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Sudan, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Somalia (6 /54 African)

20. 1-liner Toward MDGs - what works, what doesn’t Introduce the antagonist. “Dead aid”. 3 points: 1 the trajectory says YES ... but too slow 2 transp, sustained, targeted aid works 3 it’s working thanks to few nations & initiatives Visual slides – not for note-taking Visual presentation of quantitative data Reveal the holy smokes moment Rehearsals beginning mid-late Sept Just before the talk remind yourself of passion

21. There are more hungry now than ever “Our kids will see hunger relegated to museums” “Things will get worse no matter what we do” MDGs are unachievable Rich nations broke their promises Malthus Steady progress  MDGs 2008 recession Trillions wasted Trade not aid Tilted playing field We never promised 0.7% It’s their own fault We already give more than anyone else Corrupt multinationals Corrupt dictators Trade barriers

22. Refs • http://data.worldbank.org/topic

23. MDG progress 2010 • http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.html • http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/ • http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs

24. MDG Critique & Scenarios • MDGs a critique from the south Sept 2010 • http://allafrica.com/stories/201010010582.html The MDGs after the Crisis The MDGs after the Crisis World bank analyses scenarios. Crisis recovery matters, but not as much as kept promises

25. Deaths (millions) before age 5 in 2006

26. http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilitieshttp://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities Low share of phantom aid • Ireland • Luxemborg • Sweden • Denmark • Norway • Netherlands • UK 60% of US ODA goes to Iraq & Israel

27. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan noted that the flow of money from poor to rich countries far exceeded total ODA. “Funds should be moving from developed countries to developing countries, but the opposite is happening…. Funds that should be promoting investment and growth in developing countries, or building schools and hospitals, or supporting other steps towards the Millennium Development Goals, are, instead, being transferred abroad.” [US Senator Patrick] Leahy noted that two-thirds of US government aid goes to only two countries: Israel and Egypt. Much of the remaining third is used to promote US exports or to fight a war against drugs that could only be won by tackling drug abuse in the United States.” instead of promoting investment in health, education, and infrastructure development in the third world, this money has been channeled to the North, either because of debt servicing arrangements, asymmetries and imbalances in the trade system or because of inappropriate liberalisation and privatisation measures imposed upon them by the international financial and trading system.

28. GDP per capita / past 10 years

29. It’s not that complicated • There is enough for everyone … … suffering is widespread & extreme • Weknow the trajectory • We know what doesn’t work & why • Weknow what works & why “Initiatives since the MDGs”

30. The trajectory Gapminder IMF WB CIA FAO USDA % fed % in poverty Changes in income to 2009

31. What is the dataset? • There are data going back to the 1800s • Gapminder • Also a plethora of tightly focused data from 1960 to 2005 • The WHO, FAO, World Bank, USDA / ERS, CIA • Comprehesive data to 2009 USDA

33. The focus • There is steady progress • Three kinds of aid  relief  development  harm > good Aid that doesn’t work Aid that does work What’s changing

34. What’s the evidence? • Progress is steady, but slow • Expect it to accelerate • We know what works & what doesn’t - “dead aid?” • Initiatives since the MDGs • No cause for complacency

35. Assertion vsEvidence • MDGs unachievable? • progress is slow - 1% pa (should be 2.5%) $2trillion wasted  harm > good? ask instead what works & doesn't? seeds, water, fertilizer, DDT, ARVs • Malthus – population trumps food? • development slows growth • Nothing helps? • spectacular new initiatives • Watchful waiting • 10,000,000 under 5

36.  Aid that helps NATO farmers Bill Clinton: Senate Foreign RlnsCtte: Forced poor to buy US ag products < cost … “a disaster - destroyed local agriculture” “I did that. I have to live every day with the consequences of lost capacity to produce a rice crop in Haiti to feed those people, because of what I did. Nobody else”

37.  Contingent on unfair markets

38.  That goes to corrupt dictators

39. Pitfalls problems & roadblocks Diverts development & aid $ Increases the price of foods • Financial melt-down • National scale land purchases • Food  fuel ... • War on terror ... • Nations in bondage to IMF debt • Unfair trade practices • Climate change • Globalization of food economics • Clean water & air have become commodities Also  displaced persons & Destroys the local economy Vandana Shiva on globalization Vandana Shiva on Food Laws

40. Recent factors accelerating progress • MDGs, Grameen, Millennium villages, Billionaire philanthropists, WWW / technology, passionate agents of change, leverage

41. Why does so much aid not work Teams of publish or perish “anthropologists” “Another needs assessment? … Look around. Ask people” “We have noticed that Americans have very tiny ears” ... ... & very large mouths. But we would prefer it to be the other way around Aid that designed to benefit the donor, not the recipient Advocates for the poor rate the World Bank, IMF, & WTO fail! Vandana Shiva Not billions given to buy loyalty of corrupt leaders

42. Recent factors accelerating progress • MDGs, Grameen, Millennium villages, Billionaire philanthropists, WWW / technology, passionate agents of change, leverage

43. Your mindset vs my dataset • Don’t want to rain on your parade View from N & South are the same • N emphasizes 15 y vs 50 y • S emphasizes 10 M / near