Pricing Management

1. Pricing Management

2. Aims of Pricing Management Module • Improve your skills for developing and implementing marketing plans • Discuss the characteristics of corn and soybean markets • Review selected pricing tools • Consider an example marketing plan

3. Dictionary defines marketing as: Process of selling or purchasing in a market Dictionary defines a plan as: A method for achieving an end Formulation of a plan of action What is a Marketing Plan?

4. Consequences of strategic plan should be DRIVE: Provide Direction Reasonable (practical, obtainable) Inspiring, challenging Easy to Visualize, able to measure Eventual (time frame for achieving goals) Consequences of tactical plan should be SMART: Specific Measurable Attainable Rewarding Timed Plans

5. What’s The Time Frame For Your Marketing Plan • You can price after harvest if you are willing to store • You can price new crop corn and soybeans today for sale at harvest in 2002 … or 2003 • Suggests a planning horizon from of at least 18 months prior to harvest to 6 months post harvest

6. Key Features of Plan • Goals … that reflect the SMART criteria • Written plan that lays out a general strategy and proposed actions when faced with particular opportunities and risks • Make decisions on logic, not emotion • Deals with who, when, how, how much, and follow-up

7. Key Questions About Your Goals • How much risk are you willing to bear? • Based upon your net worth / equity in the farm business • Comfort zone • How much risk are you willing to take to capitalize on potential opportunities? • How do you feel about using your equity vs. using risk reducing tools to deal with risk?

8. Structuring Your Plan • Define your goals • Quantify the financial exposure you are willing to assume • Describe the size of the crop that will be available for you to market: • Most likely potential bushels • Yield / Product Quality risk faced • Potential role of crop insurance to backstop pre-harvest pricing

9. Structuring Your Plan (continued) • Break the time period over which you can price into several periods • Prior to March 15 • Late spring / early summer • Harvest • Jan-March • Calculate targets for each period: • Bushels to sell • Target price • Describe how you will change your targets given opportunities and risks that may arise

10. What Kind of Market Do You Face? • Degree of Volatility • Patterns • New Crop • Seasonal • Across years • Old Crop • Seasonal • Across years

11. There are patterns a disciplined approach can build upon • On the average, across the last 25 years, pre-harvest priced corn & soybeans in late spring - early summer for did better than pricing @ harvest. • The late spring - early summer vs. harvest price difference has varied from year to year and is sensitive to perceived ending stock position. • There is potential gain but additional risk is incurred to go after the gain.

12. Dec 2000 Corn Contract

13. “If you think you can out guess the commodity futures market --you are nuts!” Quote from a marketing consultant

14. Pro-Farmer Doane Freese-Notis USDA avg. price received Ag Profit Stewart-Peterson Brock Associates Agri-Visor $349.80 $349.70 $347.40 $343.30 $340.51 $337.84 $334.00 $331.20 Some Evidence:Two Year Performance of Selected Cash-Only Market Advisors

15. What’s Possible?

16. Feasibility of Pricing Goals

17. Set Price and Timing Goals • Use your “costs of production” developed in the financial section in setting Revenue Requirement goals: • Total Economic Costs • Maintain Net worth • Cash Flow Requirements • Equity available to risk • Drive how much you can “afford to gamble”

18. “Break Even Prices Needed” Make Sure You Have These Values

19. Pre-March 15 prices:Dec CBOT corn @ $2.50/buHarvest basis @ $0.40/bu=Cash forward contract @ $2.10/bu Probability that the realized CBOT corn futures price at maturity will be less than this price 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Price $1.85 $2.04 $2.19 $2.32 $2.45 $2.59 $2.75 $2.95 $3.24

20. Probability that the realized CBOT soy futures price at maturity will be less than this price 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Price $3.80 $4.11 $4.35 $4.56 $4.77 $4.99 $5.24 $5.54 $6.00 Pre-March 15 prices:Nov CBOT soys @ $4.85/buHarvest basis @ $0.40/bu=Cash forward contract @ $4.45/bu

21. Set Price and Timing Goals • Look at historical patterns to assess the current situation for setting both price and time targets and triggers • Use commodity Supply-Demand Balance Sheets in combination with futures and options • Use charts -- particularly for setting short term and daily price targets

22. What “Tools” Can I Use to Provide Information In Setting Pricing Targets: • Price Potential • Near term • Longer term • Risk and Opportunity • Use of price history

23. How Much do I have to sell? Describe how much you will have to market? • Planned acres • Yield probability charts • Prevented planting risk • Harvest quality risk

25. Marketing Alternatives • Spot Sales • Cash Forward Contract • Short Hedge • Basis Contract • Minimum Price Contract • Options on futures contact

26. Marketing Alternatives • Hedge-to-Arrive • Max-Min • Loan and LDP’s

27. Risk Management Game We only consider: • Spot (cash) sales • Cash forward contracts • LDP’s

28. Example Marketing Plan: • Lets apply what we have discussed to developing an example marketing plan for the medium debt farm • Discuss how the plan might might vary with other debt structures

29. Marketing plan worksheet • Set your preliminary targets for each period: • Price triggers • Time triggers • Is scaling up warranted? • How will the plan change in response to particular (e.g., scaling up): • Opportunities • Risk • Are you likely to need to restructure debt given price prospects?

30. Example Marketing Plan for Medium Debt Farm Timing for corn and soybeans - Price 20% by March 15 - Price 40% by June/July - Price 80% by Harvest If prices are at least 15 cents over the loan rate Price Goals for corn and soybeans -March and beyond - 40% if price will Maintain Net Worth - 60% if price is above Total Economic Costs

31. Example Marketing Plan for Medium Debt Farm Price Goals for corn and soybeans Con’t - July - 30% if price reaches top 40% of price dist., $2.16 - 40% if price reaches top 30% of price dist., $2.28 - 60% if price reaches top 20% of price dist., $2.42 - only 10-15% chance of pricing soybeans over loan rate, price 60% if the 5-10% chance of $5.70 occurs - Could use MPC to go 80% in July if net price 15 cents over loan

32. Example Marketing Plan for Medium Debt Farm Price Goals for corn and soybeans Con’t - At harvest - Take LDP on the 80% priced - Store up 20% if forward contract higher than storage costs to March - 15% under a forward contract, take LDP - 5% wait to price - Use loan on unpriced stored crop - March 2001 - Price remainder

33. Who is responsible for developing a Marketing Plan and implementing it? You are! (But maybe your spouse could do a better job!)

34. Write it down. • Tell someone else your plan (spouse, business partner). • Post your plan (in your home or office) to remind you to follow it. • Stick with your plan.

35. The success of your operation depends on YOU! Take charge, seek assistance, and set a plan you can live with.

36. END