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Apple iPhone Effect: Voice Yields Are Rising!

Apple iPhone Effect: Voice Yields Are Rising!.

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Apple iPhone Effect: Voice Yields Are Rising!

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  1. Apple iPhone Effect: Voice Yields Are Rising! This from the AT&T 4Q 2009 supplemental spreadsheets. The yellow highlighted areas are derived calculations. Voice ARPU is calculated by taking the difference between the Postpaid Subscriber ARPU and the Total (Postpaid) Data ARPU. Voice ARPU fell by 1.1% in 3Q and 4Q 2009. These figures are lower and dropping faster on Verizon Wireless – in fact, we are validating the spread in voice ARPUs, but it appears that AT&T is commanding ~$5 more in voice yield than Verizon – that’s a few billion in annualized revenues if this figure is correct. In turn, the MOU/ yr for the average Cellular/ PCS subscriber (this includes Wholesale and retail Prepaid) is falling at a faster rate. The average MOU will be higher for postpaid (vs. pre-paid), so we tossed in one additional calculation to triangulate – as long as the MOU/ user are not below 691 for 4Q (3% Y/Y reduction), we have flat to perhaps slightly rising voice yields. This is the iPhone effect – because of exclusivity, customers will “live with” a baseline of voice minutes they never use.

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