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Industrial Park in Belarus Investment Projects. 3D printers production. PROJECT Proposed project - 3D-printers manufacturing plant. The project is attractive for the following reasons:
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3D printers production • PROJECT • Proposed project - 3D-printers manufacturing plant. • The project is attractive for the following reasons: • The volume of the world market of 3D printers is expected to reach USD 10,8 bnby 2020 (CAGR=20%). In 2014 the sales amounted to approximately 133 thousand units (USD 3,3 bn). • Wide implementation of 3D-printers in manufacturing companies may have a global positive economic impact, estimated atUSD 550bn by 2025. • The most promising segments for the implementation of 3D-printersare are aerospace, educational, medical and jewellery spheres. • The main market outlets are the Customs Union, CIS, BRIC and Eastern European countries. • A project of 3D-printers manufacturing plant is expected to have IRR at the level of 30-40% with the investment volume from USD 20 to 100 million. The main consumers of 3D printers • MARKETS • 3D-printers are at the stage of growth in the product lifecycle. Rapid growth and high profit are the main characteristics of the stage. • The Customs Union, CIS, BRIC and Eastern European countries will becomethe main market outlets. • The main demand driver at this markets will be conversion of manufacturing from machine tools to equipment for 3D printing of models. • Belarusian market: • There are 350 enterprises in Belarus, involved into machinery manufacturing, most of which need modern equipment. • USD 9,44 bnis a total volume of machinery manufacturing sector in Belarus in 2014. • Russian market: • USD 170 million is import volume of plastics processing equipment (which includes 3D printers) to the Russian Federation in 2014. • Germany, Italy and China are the main exporters of 3D printers to Russia. MARKETS Custom Union CIS Eastern Europe BRIC
3D printers production • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • McKinsey experts believe that the impact of the wide implementation of 3D-printers in manufacturing companies can have a global positive economic impact estimated at USD 550 bn by 2025. • 113 thousand units is the global sales volume of 3D printers in 2014. • 3D printers sales volume increased by 22 times since 2010. Annual sales of 3D printers will reach 6 million units (increased by 60 times) by 2018. • USD 3,3 bn was sales volume of 3D printers in 2014(32% growth). Experts expect 3D printers sales volume to increase up to USD 10.8 bn by 2020 (CAGR=20%) • Gartner predicts, thatultimate consumers spendings on material extrusion technologies will increase from 789 million USD in 2015 to approximately USD 6,9 bn in 2018. • The price for 3D printers is expected to reduce in the near future.800-1500 USD will be the average price per unit, which will become a stimulus for further growth of demand. • At present 3D printers are mostly used for goods production industry (29%), automobile industry (19%), medicine (13%), education (10%), aerospace industry (8%) and industrial engineering (7%). • The considerable growth of demand for 3D printers is observed in machinery manufacturing. At present Boeing uses 3D-printing for the production of more than 200 aircraft items. • Regional opportunities: • Russian 3D printers market will have reached USD 34 million by 2020 году (CAGR=17,5%). • There is only one company in Russia involved into 3D printers manufacturing. • Russia has a state industry development program till 2020. Total budget allocation is about USD 130 bn. • Attractive segments: • Aerospace sector, education, medicine and jewelry are the most promising segments for 3D printers implementation according to the experts’ evaluation. Increase by 22 times CAGR = 20% Global sales volume of 3D printers, USD bn 3D printers consumption structure, 2014 CAGR = 17,5% Russian 3D printer market, USD mn POTENTIAL INVESTORS Major 3D printers from China, Sweden and Germany. INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Project costs from USD 20 to 100 million IRR 30-40%
Auto electronics manufacturing • Project • Proposed project - auto electronics production plant (dashboard cameras, in-board computers, gps-navigators, etc.) • The project is efficient due to the following reasons: • It is expected, that electronic segment of auto parts production will occupy leading positions by profitabilityin the coming 10 years. • In 2014 imports of parts and components for motor vehicles in Russia totaledaround USD 10 bnand rose on average by 28% each year during the period of 2009-2014 • The size of global auto parts market is projected to reach EUR 791 bn by 2020 ( in 2014 – approximately EUR 667 bn) • The size of global test devices market is projected to reach EUR 178 bn by 2020. • Project investment costs are estimated at USD 70-100 millon, with payback period for 6-7 years. • MARKETS • Russian market: • In 2014 Russian imports of parts and components for motor vehicles was valued approximately at USD 10 bn. Along with this annual average growth rate of the imports during the period of 2009 – 2014 totaled 28%. • In 2014 Russian imports of electronic auto parts (dashboard cameras, in-board computers, gps-navigators, etc.) amounted to USD 5,8 bnwith 3% annual average growth rate over 2010-2014.Furthermore: • Import of gps-navigators in Russia grew on average by 19% a year during the period of 2009 – 2014. In 2014 it amountedto almost USD 200 million. • Imports in dashboard cameras segment grew on average by 27% a year during the period of 2009 – 2014. In 2014 it amountedto almost USD 500 million. • In Russian car industry the segment of car assembling is highly-developed, but segment of auto parts production, especially electronics, is still poorly developed. * Import according to a wide commodity item, comprising indicated devices (customs tariff code 8471 – for on-board computers, 852691 – for gps-navigators, 852190 – for dashboard cameras).
Auto electronics manufacturing • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • According to Roland Berger analysis, world auto parts market is projected to reach EUR 791 bn by 2020 (in 2014 – approximately EUR 667 bn) • The size of global test devices market is projected to reach EUR 178 bn by 2020 (23% of the total auto parts production). • In 2014 global light vehicles sales amounted to 87 bn units. Annual output growth to a range of 106 million units is forecasted by 2021. • More than 60% of the vehicle value added is formed by innovations of auto parts suppliers (including 15% - due to electronics). • More than 90% of innovations are represented by electronics. • Local opportunities: • In 2014 Russian auto parts market reached USD 49,8 bn, with 20 % annual average growth rate over 2009-2014. Market structure as well has considerably changed – in 2009 primary market accounted for 22%, in 2014 – more than 50%. • It is projected, that in 2016 approximately USD 1,3 million of light vehicles will be produced in Russia. Moreover the percent of foreign brands assembled in Russia will be around 70%. The expected increase of production will reach USD 1,9 bn by 2020. • In spite of continuing growth of Russian auto parts market, it still has significant opportunity for further development. The main reason for this lies in low-quality products, underinvestment in technology development. • In 2014 with the development of the industry (Geely, Peugeot, Citroen) car production in Belarus significantly increased (by 25 times compared to 2010). World car market drivers (megatrends) Increase of data flow and entertainment inside the car Demand for higher safety level Environmental concern • POTENTIAL INVESTORS • Strategic investors – there is a companies with technology and experience in the electronics production in general or in the segment of auto electronics. • Forward vertical integration - companies working in industries which are the main consumers of auto parts and electronics (automobile industry, distributors of spare parts for cars,retailing and others). • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Establishment of a new plant for auto electronics production (dashboard cameras, in-board computers, gps-navigators, etc. ) as a part of Industrial park. • Project investment costs are estimated at USD 70-100 million. • Payback period is 6-7 years. • Internal rate of return (IRR) fluctuates around 13-15%.
Biopharma production • PROJECT • Proposed project – biopharmaceuticals (antisera, probiotics, etc.) producing plant. • The project is considered to be promising due to the following reasons: • Imports of immune sera in Russia totaled more than USD 1,5 bn in 2013 and increased annually by 16% on average over 2009-2013. • The pharmaceuticals market in Russia is estimated at USD 3.7 bn. • In Belarus there is practically no domestic manufacturing of biopharmaceutical products. • It is planned to increase consumption and production of biotechnologies in Russia by 8,3 and 33 times by 2020, respectively. • Capital expenditures for the project are estimated at USD 30-100 million, payback period – 4-7 years. • MARKETS • In December 2014 there were signed the Agreement on common principles and rules of circulation of drugs and medical products within the Eurasian Economic Union. • The common pharmaceuticals market in EEU starts to operate in January 1, 2016. • Immune antisera : • Russia is among top 15 antisera importers in the world (imports in 2014 – USD 1379 million), placed far behind the world’s top importers – Germany, USA, Great Britain. • CAGR of immune antisera import in Russia was about 11% in 2009-2014 . • More than a half of Russian antisera imports accounts for three major world’s exporters – Germany (29,7%), Austria (11,0%) and USA (14,7%). • Germ cultures : • The total imports of germ cultures in Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2014 amounted to about USD 100 million. • The imports of germ cultures to Russia amounted to 369 million USD in 2014 . • CAGR of germ cultures imports in Russia was about 19%in 2009-2014.
Biopharma production • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • The world market of biotechnology is estimated at USD 270 bn. • According to estimates, the global biotechnology market will more than double up by 2020 and reach USD 600 bn. CAGR of the biotechnology market is expected to reach 10-12%. This industry is one of the fastest-growing and promising. • In 2014-2018 the global pharmaceutical patent protection of drugs expires with total sales of 121 bn USD. • Pharmaceutical and medicine account for 60% of the global biotechnology market. • Regional opportunities: • The pharmaceutical market of the Customs Union countries amounted to USD 33 bn in 2014. • According to experts, the pharmaceutical markets of Brazil, Russia and India will grow by 9-14% per year by 2020. • Pharmaceuticals market in Russia is estimated at USD 3.7 bn. • According to Bioengineering development program in Russia, consumption and output volumes are expected to increase by 8,3 and 33 times respectively by 2020. • In Belarus biotechnology sector makes 1.1% of GDP. • Promising directions: • One of the fastest growing segments of the market is the production of monoclonal antibodies. The global market of monoclonal antibodies will reach USD 60-80 bnby 2018. • Monoclonal antibodies account for 16% of biopharma market in Russia, however the share is expected to grow significantly and reach 28% by 2020. • Imported drugs account for 90% of Russian market of monoclonal antibodies. Chinese and Indian biopharma and finished pharma product producers , aimed at locating their production on the Customs Union market. Original drug producers intending to enter generics market. POTENTIAL INVESTORS • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Capex for the project totals USD 30-100 million on average. • IRR varies between 12-18%. • Payback period is about 4-7 years. Special purpose venture funds (in case of technologically difficult and innovative projects)
Equipment for laser surgery • PROJECT • Proposed project – production of equipment for laser surgery. • Feasibility of establishing a production of equipment for laser surgery is determined by the following factors: • Belarus is one of the leading world research centers for lasers and laser technologies, including technologies for medical purposes. A number of successful projects of manufacturing setup on the basis of such technologies was implemented. • Availability of highly qualified specialists in the field of laser technology and medical equipment. • Growing global demand for laser technology in surgery, cosmetology, endoscopy, dermatology and other fields. • Replacement of traditional surgery for laser technologies. • The main markets are the markets of Russia, Kazakhstan and the emerging markets of China, Turkey and other countries. • Investment costs are estimated at USD 20-30mn, payback period – 5years. Russian medical equipment and products market, 2005-2014 • SALES MARKETS • Customs Union market: • The Russian market of medical equipment and products in 2014 reached 197 bn RUB (around USD 5,1 bn), long-term market growth rate amounts to 11% per year. • The share of domestic production of medical equipment in Russia varies within 16-18%, the rest is imported. • Average annual growth rate of medical equipment and products imports to Russia in 2009–2014 amounted to +18%, importsamounted to 167 bn RUB (USD 4,3 bn) in 2014. • Developing countries market (China, India, Turkey): • Emerging markets for the last 5 years have shown a significant growth in consumption. Thus, for example, Chinese market is the 3rd in the world at the present time. • Thus, the most promising market is the Customs Union market as well as the market of developing countries. Imports of medical equipment and products to Russia, bn RUB
Equipment for laser surgery • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • Global laser market in 2014 exceeded USD 9,2 bn, global laser for medical purposes market exceeded USD 745 mn. • Laser equipment for medical purposes accounts for more than 8% of the global laser market, and this share is constantly growing (more than 10% in 2020). • High market attractiveness is due to the increasing global demand for laser technologies for diagnostics, surgery, endoscopy, dentistry, ophthalmology, etc. The world market of laser equipment for medicine purposes is expected to reach USD 1,5 bn in 2010. At the same time the CAGR of lasers for medicine purposes market will exceed the CAGR of lasers market in general (13% and 8% respectivelyduring 2014-2020). • Replacement of traditional surgery for laser surgery ("one day surgery"). • Aging of population and wider spreading of age-related eye diseases, as well as the growing importance of аesthetics (aesthetic surgery). • Regional opportunities: • Growth in consumption of medical equipment and furniture in emerging markets is conditioned by a significant growth in personal income and demand forqualityhealthcare services. • Share of expenditures for health care in Russia amounted to only 3-4% of GDP in 2012 while in developed countries the share of such expenditures exceeds 7-10%. • Despite the fact that local companies produce almost all the known types of laser equipment, not more than 5-10% of all these models meet modern technical requirements. • After the fulfillment of regional program of modernization of healthcare for 2006-2012 themarket for medical equipment and furniture in Russia decreased. The recovery of the market is expected in 2017-2018, as a resultof deterioration and the end of technical lifetime of the equipment and furniturebought on a program of healthcare modernization. • There is a government health development programme for 2013-2020 in Russia, which provides annual assignmentsof about USD 4-5 bn. • Since 2015 Russian imports of medical equipment and products hasalmost been limited.If there are 2 or moreoffers from EAEU countries producers taking part in a tender for supply for governmental and municipal needs, the offers from any other countries will not be accepted. In addition to that, the share of bulk purchases on the medical products market in Russia amounted to 72%. Global lasers market, USD bn Global laser market by application The share of medical products imports to Russia for some segments Budgetfundsforhealthdevelopmentprogrammerealisation in Russia, USDbn Strategic investors Size of medical products market in Russia Specialized venture capital funds Leading producers of laser equipment POTENTIAL INVESTORS • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Investment costs for the creation of facilities for medical laser equipment production are estimated atUSD 20-30mn. • Expected payback period of the project may amount to 5years. • IRR for the project may reach around 20%.
Manufacturing of wireless 4G LTEmodules • PROJECT • Proposedproject - a modern manufacturing plant producing wireless 4G LTE modules for communication devices and base stations. • IHS Technologyestimated that capital expenditures in theextension of the 4G Internet in the world amountedto USD 24,3 bnin 2013, which is three times as many as in 2012. • The number of 4G Internet users has grown by 22,5 times between 2011 and 2013. • It is expected that the number of LTE users in the world will amount to 1,2 bn people in 2016. • By 2019 4G Internet will account for around 68% of mobile network traffic. SALES MARKETS Eastern Europe is a strategically important region for contract manufacturing of electronic components (Electronics Manufacturing Services – EMS). An increasing number of manufacturers are transferring their production here in order to cut down production costs. This factor is the main for 53% of manufacturers. Russia is a promising market for 4G Internet since it is one of the most dynamic subscriber base growth rate in the world. Market growth is estimated to reach 20 million users by 2018. Contract manufacturing (EMS) of wireless components is a sure-fire way of cutting down production costs for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). As a result of contract manufacturing of electronic components OEMs may reach 16% of costs reduction. • CISCO has estimated, that mobile traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will increase by 14,4 times by 2019 with CAGR of 71%. • During 2014 the number of base LTE stations in Russiahas increased three-fold.
Manufacturing of wireless 4G LTEmodules • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • The EMS segment of the global electronics market has almost doubled over the last 6 years. • LTE share in total connections volume is expected to increase by 25% by 2020 due to the relative decrease of 2G and 3G. • As of 2014 there were 279 4G LTE networks launched in 101 countries. • The total number of connections to 4G LTE networks will grow from 62 million in 2012 to 920 million in 2017. • Local opportunities: • In December 2015, LTE network was launched in Belarus. It definitely will entail the future spread of this kind of network. • Less than 10 companies in Russian market can be called top-players in EMS industry, which provides opportunities for a simple market entry. • 4G LTE networks equipment in Russia must be purchased from domestic producers only. • The market for contract manufacturing of electronic components is one of the most rapidly growing at the moment. • The global smartphones market is expected to reach451,4 USDbn by 2018. • According to forecasts, there will be 2,2 bn LTE subscribers in the world by 2022. Percentage of communication types in total volume of mobile connections in the world INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES Investors Large EMS companies Mobile phone service providers 4G devices manufacturers
Manufacturing of air filters/water filters • PROJECT • Proposed project –air filters/water filters plant. • The project is worth implementation due to the following factors: • The world market of filters is estimated at more than USD 59 bn.According to the forecast, the global market of filters will grow on average by 6,2% per year and will reach USD 88,2 bn by 2020. • The global market of water filtrating systems is estimated at USD 7,5 bn. According to the forecast, the market will grow on average by 12,4% per year. • The markets of the Customs Union, as well as the markets of neighbor European countries are considered as the main markets (import of filters in 2014 in Russia amounted to USD 1,8 bn, in Kazakhstan - USD 225 mln, in Belarus - USD 113 mln) • The investment costs for the project are estimated at USD 5-10 mln; payback period of 5-7 years, IRR - 15-20%. Dynamics of Russian imports of filters, USD bn • MARKETS • Customs Union market: • Imports of filters in Russia in 2014 amounted to USD 1,8 bn. Annual average growth is 21 %. • In 2014 Russia imported water filters for more than USD 338 mn (CAGR + 14%), air filters for USD 854 mn(CAGR + 30%). • The main importers of filters in Russia are Italy (18%), Germany (17%), China (12%). • Imports of filters in Kazakhstan in 2014 amounted to USD 225 mn.The average annual growth rate from 2010 till 2014 was 7%. • Internal market of Belarus: • Imports of filters in Belarus was growing annually on average by 6% and at the end of 2014 amounted to USD 113 mn. • Imports of water filters in 2014 amounted to USD 30 mn, air filters – USD 35 mn. Imports of air filters in Russia, USD mn *
Manufacturing of air filters/water filters • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • The world market of filters is estimated at more than USD 59 bn. • Experts predict that the global market of filters will grow on average by 6,2% per year and will reach USD 88,2 bn by 2020. The fastest growing segment of the market will be a consumer sector, where the average annual growth in 2014-2020 will be 8,3%. • Air filters • It is estimated that the world market of air filters in 2020 will reach USD 19 bn. • HVAC * systems market shows a positive trend: in 2013 it amounted to USD 91,5 bn(CAGR + 5%). According to the forecast, the global market of HVAC systems will reach USD 155,1 bnby 2020. • The world market of air conditioners in 2014 reached USD 97,7 bn. The average annual growth rate over the past few years is 7%. • In 2013 in Russia 2 million of split systems and 0,5 mnunits of mobile air conditioners were sold. The estimated sales growth is 5-10%. • Water filters • The global market of consumer water filters is estimated at USD 7,5 bn. According to the forecast, the market will grow on average by 12,4% per year. • Due to poor infrastructure of water filtration in BRICS countries, they will be the main drivers of water filters market growth. • The Russian market of filters and water-treating equipment is estimated at USD 390 mn. The average annual growth rate is 15%. • The market of water filters in Russia is mainly represented by four players: "Aquaphor", “Barrier", “Geyser" and german “Brit”. • In Belarus there is no local manufacturing of water filters - all filters are imported. World market of filters, USD bn The structure of the world market of filters (by sectors) World market of HVAC systems, USD bn The market of filters and water-treating equipment in Russia, million dollars. Potential investors • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Investment costs:USD 5 – 10mn. • IRR:15-20 %. • Payback period : 5-7 years. Manufacturers of filters aimed at increasing production volumes and strengthening the position in the Eastern European markets, particularly in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
Manufacturing of car filters • PROJECT • Proposed project – plant for car filters (air, oil, fuel) production. • Efficiency of the project implementation: • In 2014 imports of parts and components for motor vehicles in Russia totaledaround USD 10 bn and rose on average by 28% each year during the period of 2009-2012. • The size of global auto parts market is predicted to reach EUR 791 bn by 2020 ( in 2014 – app. EUR 667 bn) • The number of oil filters is predicted to increase in proportion to the amount of cars. • Project investment costs are estimated at USD 10-15 million, with payback period for 3-4 years. • MARKETS • Custom Union market: • In 2014 Russian imports of parts and components for motor vehicles was valued approximately at USD 10 bn. Along with this annual average growth rate of the imports during the period of 2009 – 2014 totaled 28%. • In 2014 imports of air filters in Russia totaled USD 138 million, with 15% annual average growth rate over 2009-2014. • In 2014 imports of oil filters in Russia totaled USD 245 million, with 14% annual average growth rate over 2009-2014. • Internal market of Belarus: • In 2014 Belarusian imports of parts and components for motor vehicles was valued at more than USD 377 million. Along with this annual average growth rate of the imports during the period of 2009 – 2014 totaled 13%. • In 2014 in Belarus were produced 68,9 th units of internal-combustion engines (ICE) for cars and motor vehicles. In addition to that 61,4 th tonnes of parts and components for cars and tractors were also produced and exported.
Manufacturing of car filters • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • According to Roland Berger analysis, world auto parts market is projected to reach EUR 791 bn by 2020 ( in 2014 – app. EUR 667 bn ) • In 2014 global light vehicles sales amounted to 87 million units (annual average growth – 3%). Annual output growth to a range of 106 million units is forecasted by 2021. • Nearly the half of the global light vehicles demand accounts for Asia-Pacific Region. Leading countries by the results of 2014 are China, USA, Japan, Brazil, Germany and India. • In the coming years the market of filters will beincreased in proportion to the amount of cars. Maturity of the market is expected to come not sooner than 2020-2022. • Local opportunities: • In 2014 Russian auto parts market reached USD 49,8 bn, with 20 % annual average growth rate over 2009-2014. Market structure has considerably changed as well – in 2009 primary market accounted for 22%, in 2014 – more than 50%. • It is projected, that in 2016 approximately USD 1,3 million of light vehicles will be produced in Russia. Moreover the percent of foreign brands assembled in Russia will be around 70%. The expected increase of production will reach USD 1,9 million by 2020. • In spite of continuing growth of Russian auto parts market, it is still deficiently developed (low competition, underinvestment,cheap imports). • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Project investment costs are estimated at USD 10-15 million • Payback period is 3-4 years. • Internal rate of return (IRR) fluctuates around 22-28% • POTENTIAL INVESTORS • Strategic investors – companies with technology and experience in the auto parts production in general or in the segment of car filters production. • Forward vertical integration - companies working in industries with the main consumers of auto parts (automobile industry, distributors of spare parts for cars and others).
Manufacturing of devices fordata storage • Project • Proposed project - manufacturing semiconducting non-volatile devices for data storage. • The project is considered promising due to the following reasons: • The lack of domestic production in Belarus and high demand for these devices. • The high rate of increase in importing storage devices into Russia and Belarus (average annual imports into Russia is +8%and in Belarus +15%). • Placing manufacturing near sales markets andthe availability of highly qualified staff in the field of microelectronics. • Sales markets – domestic market of Belarus and the market of the Customs Union. • The investment costs of establishing the company for the production of storage devices is estimated at USD50-300 million, IRR - 12-15%. Imports of semiconducting storage devices into Belarus , USD mn • Sales markets • Domestic market of the Republic of Belarus: • Belarus doesn’t have her own production of non-volatile semiconducting storage devices (SSD- drives , USD- flash drives , memory cards). • Domestic demand for these devices is about 1 million units and it’s completely covered by import. • In Belarus the annual growth of market capacityfor storage devices in real terms for the period from 2009 till 2014 was about 26 %. • In 2014 imports of non-volatile semiconducting storage devices into Belarus amounted to USD 6.3 million, the average annual increase in imports is 15 %. • However, in 2014 imports decreased in comparison with the year 2013 (-28%), mostly it’s because of the whole economic situation in Belarus and Russia. • About one-third of Belarusian imports comes from China and other Asian countries , 43 % - from Russia (which in its turn imports the devices from China). • Customs Union market: • In Russia the annual increase in importing semiconducting storage devices is about 8% and it has reached USD217 million in 2014. 90% of the whole import is from China. • So, the promising sales markets are the market of the Customs Union and the domestic market of Belarus. Imports of semiconducting storage devices into Russia , USD mn
Manufacturing of devices fordata storage The forecast of the world market storage devices, zettabyte The forecast of the world-market of SSD-drives • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • According to the forecasts, there will be a shortage of storage devices on the global market. By the year 2020 customers will need about 6 zettabyte of all memory kinds for data storage. At the same time, if you do not increase the capacity of enterprises and not to change the technology they use, the required demand for the memory industry is able to meet only 50%. At the same time, if the capacity of enterprises doesn’t increase and the technologies they use aren’t changed, industry will be able to meet only 50% of the required demand for storage devices. • It is expected that the capacity of the world market of SSD-drives will annually grow by 44% and could reach 190 million units by the year of 2017. • Local opportunities: • Increase of disposable incomes in countries with economy in transition. For example, in Belarus, a real disposable income is 2.5 times higher now than in 2005. • In the CIS region in 2013 the leading positions in ICT development level (an index that also takes into account the number of computers and mobile phones per 100 inhabitants) are occupied by the Customs Union countries: Russian Federation - 42, Belarus - 38, Kazakhstan - 53. • At year-end 2013 Belarus was 4-th time named one of the ten largest economies in the world with sweeping changes in terms of access and use of ICT. • Also for the first time Belarus took a leading position in the CIS region, left behind the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. • The demand for storage devices is directly dependent on the demand for computers and mobile phones.Both in Russia and in Belarus imports of mobile phones and computers is annually being increased. In 2014, imports into Russia amounted to 7.5 billion dollars. In the same year imports to Belarus amounted to more than 400 million dollars. • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • It is estimated that investment costs can range from 50 to USD 300 million. • Profitability of production can reach 13-17%. • IRR–12-15%. • The average payback period can be 6-8 years. The position of Belarus in the rate of IKT development Imports of computers and mobile phones into Belarus, USD mn Imports of computers and mobile phones into Russia, USD million POTENTIAL INVESTORS Strategic Investors Manufacturers of chips for electronics International manufacturers of storage devices who wish to locate the manufacturing close to the sale markets
Manufacturing of plastic auto parts • PROJECT • Proposed project – plastic auto parts manufacturing plant. • The main appealing features of the project are following: • In 2014 imports of parts and components for motor vehicles in Russia totaled approximately USD 10 bnand rose on average by 28% each year during the period of 2009 - 2014. • Usage of plastic materials in automobile construction helps to reduce its weight by 15-30%. Reduction in weight by 100 kg, in its turn, results in saving of 0,5 liters of fuel per each 100 km. • Capacity of plastic auto parts market in Russia is estimated for more than USD 1 bn. • Global auto parts market is forecasted to reach EUR 791 bn by 2020 ( in 2014 - app EUR 667 bn). And an average plastic content in cars will exceed350 kg. • Project investment costs are estimated at USD 30-40 million, with payback period for 4-5 years. • MARKETS • Internal market of Belarus: • In 2014 Belarusian imports of parts and components for motor vehicles was valued at more than USD 377 mn. Along with this annual average growth rate of the imports during the period of 2009 – 2014 totaled 13%. • Russian market: • In 2014 Russian imports of parts and components for motor vehicles was valued approximately at USD 10 bn. Along with this annual average growth rate of the imports during the period of 2009 – 2014 totaled 28%. • Segment of auto parts production is still poorly developed in Russian car industry, despite active development of car assembly in the country. • Russian auto parts market growth rate was 20-30 % annually till 2013. It was achieved by localization of vehicle assembly for foreign car brands. Capacity of this market is estimated for more than USD 1 bn.
Manufacturing of plastic auto parts • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • According to Roland Berger analysis, world auto parts market is projected to reach EUR 791 bn by 2020 ( in 2014 – app. EUR 667 bn ) • In 2014 global light vehicles sales amounted to 87 bn units (annual average growth – 3%). Annual output growth to a range of 106 mn units is forecasted by 2021. • Nearly the half of the global light vehicles demand accounts for Asia-Pacific Region. Leading countries By the results of 2014 are China, USA, Japan, Brazil, Germany and India. • Usage of plastic materials in automobile construction helps to reduce its weight by 15-30%. Reduction in weight by 100 kg, in its turn, results in saving of 0,5 liters of fuel per each 100 km. • Almost three fourths of car interior trim is made of plastics, synthetic films, fabrics and synthetic leather. • IHS (USA) specialists forecast that plastic content in average cars will exceed 350 kg by 2020 (nowadays app. 200 kg). The usage of carbon fiber reinforced plastics will increase in 2030 by 3 times up to 9,9 ths tons per year. • Local opportunities: • In 2014 Russian auto parts market reached USD 49,8 bn, with 20 % annual average growth rate over 2009-2014. Market structure as well has considerably changed – in 2009 primary market accounted for 22%, in 2014 – more than 50%. • It is predicted, that in 2016 approximately USD 1,3 million of light vehicles will be produced in Russia. Moreover the percent of foreign brands assembled in Russia will be around 70%. The expected increase of production will reach USD 1,9 million by 2020. • In spite of continuing growth of Russian auto parts market, this segment still has a significant opportunity for further development. • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Establishment of new plastic auto part plant (bumpers, dashboards, etc.) as a part of the Industrial park • Project investment costs are estimated at USD 30-40 million • Payback period is 4-5 years • Internal rate of return (IRR) fluctuates around 18-22% • Global auto parts market is forecasted to reach EUR 791 bn by 2020 • Russian auto parts market rose on average by 20% each year during the period of 2009 – 2014 and totaled USD 49,8 bnin 2014. • It is projected, that in 2016 approximately USD 1,3 million of light vehicles will be produced in Russia. Moreover the percent of foreign brands assembled in Russia will be near 70%. • POTENTIAL INVESTORS • Strategic investors – companies with technology and experience in the auto parts production in general or in the segment of plastic components. • Forward vertical integration - companies working in industries whith the main consumers of auto parts (automobile industry, distributors of spare parts for cars and others). • Backward vertical integration - companies working in industries with the main suppliers of plastic raw materials (petrochemical, etc.).
Manufacturing of portable medical devices • Project • Proposed project – portable medical devices plant. • The project is considered promising due to the following reasons: • In 2011-2014 there is a steady rapid growth of portable medical devices (CAGR 31 %) in the world. • The share of imports in total consumption of medical equipment in Russia and Belarus is about 80-90%. Average annual growth in imports of medical equipment in Russia over the past 5 years was 13 %. • The most promising market segment is the production of devices for monitoring and diagnostics (including the function of data transmission). • The project of building a portable medical devices plantpresupposes the IRR at the level of 16-18 % in the total investment of USD 5 to 20 mn. Dynamics of medical equipment import in the Republic of Belarus, mndollars • Markets • Internal market of Belarus: • Imports of medical equipment in the Republic of Belarus is USD 198 mn. The average annual growth rate of imports in Belarus over the past 5 years was 15%. • The main importers of Belarus are the United States (16 %), Germany (9%), Russian Federation (6%), China (5%) . • The market of Russian Federation : • In 2014 imports of medical equipment in Russia amounted to USD 2.7 bn. Average annual growth of imports in Russia over the past 5 years was 13%. • The main importers of Russian Federation are Germany (25 %), the US (19%), China (12 %), Japan (8 %), Italy (4 %). • The market of developing countries: • Developing markets (BRIC ) in the past 5 years have shown a significant increase in consumption. As a result , the share of the BRICs countries in the global consumption of medical equipment exceeded up to 10% and amounted to more than USD 43 bn. • Consequently, the most promising market is the market of the Eurasian Economic Union as well as the market of developing countries. Dynamics of medical equipment import in Russia, bn dollars
Manufacturing of portable medical devices • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • The global market of portable medical devices in 2014 amounted to USD 11 bn. The average annual growth rate in 2012-2015 amounted to 35%. • It is expected that global portable medical devices market will reach USD 58.8 bn by 2020. • The main trend is the integration of mobile Internet services in portable medical devices: • In 2015 36% of smartphone users are using the application for medical purposes. • In 2014 the number of applications of medical content for smartphones accounted to 100,000. • The Russian mobile market is on the 5th place in the world. • In 2023 about 75% of the world market of portable medical equipment will account for diagnostic units and monitoring facilities of life indices. • Medical devices accounts for 63%of all monitoring devices. • Local opportunities: • All health care institutions in Belarus will be computerized by 2016. That will encourage the further development of technologies in the field of medicine. • The share of domestic manufacturers in the total market of portable medical equipment is 8-10 %. • Russian regulation limits the purchase of medical equipment in case there are analogues produced in Russia, Belarus or Kazakhstan. • The share of expenseson home-produced medical equipment of the total health care in Russia is planned to increase from 16% to 40% by 2020. • Portable devices can reduce health care costs by 43%. • All mobile operators «the Big Three» in Russia conclude partnership agreements in the field of m-Health, as well as offer their services in this area. • A large proportion (28.5%) of Russian populationinremote areas triggers demand for such products because of its functionality. Portable devices with the function of data transmission at home, the number of connections, mn . Portable medical devices market capacity, USD bn The market of portable medical equipment for diagnostic units and monitoring facilities of life indices, USD bn Dynamics of consumer expenditure on health in Russia, % The number of smartphones in Russia , mn connections Strategic investors The world's leading manufacturers of medical equipment who wish to localize their production VC andinvestment funds POTENTIAL INVESTORS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES USD 5-20 mn Project Costs 6 years Payback period 16-18% IRR
Manufacturing ofunmannedaerialvehicles • Project • Proposed project - plant for the production of unmannedaerial vehicles (UAVs). • The project is considered promising due to the following facts: • The total volume of global UAVs market is estimated at USD 7.5 bn in 2013.The average annual spending growth rate in global UAVs marker in 2005-2013 was 13%. • Launching production of unmanned aerial vehicleswill be focused on export to the Middle East countries , the BRICS and CIS countries. • The average cost of UAVs starts from 1000 USD and grow up to several million USD. • Belarus has successful experience in designing and manufacturing UAVs («Bysel», «Berkut», «Byrevestnik»). • The project of building UAVs plant requiresIRRof 20-25% in the total investment of USD 5 to 10 million. Areas of UAV application • Sales market • The main sales markets will be the markets of the Middle East , the BRIC countries and the CIS. • At the moment US market is the largest UAVs market in the world (70%). • Israel is one of the largest manufacturers of UAVs in the world. • Experts expect the rapid growth in the segment of commercial and civil UAV comparing to the segment of military-industrial UAVs complex. • The main demand for UAVs and equipment for them is made by the defense industry, telecom companies and companies that work with navigation systems and maps. Classification of UAVs • The most massive commercial segment. • Price of micro UAV is around 1000 USD. • The market is highly segmented. Micro UAV • Most commercially attractive segment. • Price of mini UAV is around 100 thousand USD. Mini UAV Security Health care • Mainly used in the military sphere. • Price of special UAVs starts from 1 ml USD. Design and monitoring Production management Transport and special UAV Entertainment Military sphere Energy and communications Surveying and mapping Scientific research Agriculture
Manufacturing ofunmannedaerialvehicles • Market opportunities • Global opportunities: • The total volume of global UAV market is estimated at USD 7.5 bn in 2013.The average annual spending growth rate in the global UAV market in 2005-2013 was 13%. • According to experts,cumulative sales of UAVs would amount USD 67.3 bnover the next decade (2014-2023). • Share of UAVs for military purposes is estimated at 90% of the UAVs market.However, there is trend of demilitarization of drones at the moment. • It is estimated that USD 29 bn will be invested for R&D in the sphere of unmanned vehicles in the next decade. • Regional opportunities: • Middle East, including Israel, is one of the promising directions of sales. These share of these countries in the market is estimated to reach 5% by 2017. • Russian UAV market is on early stage of development. Sales are at a level of 1 thousand units per year. • The average cost of UAVs in Russia amounts to USD 500-1500 for the commercial model, designed for amateur’s needs, and several million rubles for military UAVs. • Belarus has experience in creation of UAVs of small and medium endurance of flight. • Advanced segments: • The most promising segment is the production of micro and mini UAV for civil and commercial purposes. The global market of civil and commercial UAVs estimated at about USD 748 million in 2014. (CAGR + 11%). • According to forecast, the average annual growth of civil and commercial UAVs market will be 19%, while the market of UAVs for military purposes will growth in average by 5% in 2015-2020. The structure of global UAV market (forecast for 2017) The global UAV market, USD bn UAV production by types (2014-2018). The global market of commercial and civil UAV, million USD. * HALE – High-Altitude Long-Endurance ** MALE – Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance ***UCAV – Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle Investment opportunities Potential investors Manufacturers UAV China, Israel and Italy, aimed at expanding markets. Project costs FromUSD 5 to 10 ml. IRR 20-25%
Production of generics • PROJECT • Proposed project –production of finished pharmaceutical products (FPP) generics based on imported substances. • Why generics: • The global generics market in 2015 is estimated at USD 315 bn, which is about 30% of the total pharmaceutical market. It is expected that the market will grow by 12% annually over the next five years. • In 2014-2018 the global pharmaceutical patent protection of drugs expires with total sales of USD 121 bn. • The sales are oriented at EAEC market (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan) which has the size of USD 33 bn. The share of imported drugs in the EAEC market remains high: Russia - 76.8%, Belarus - 71.0%, Kazakhstan - 88%. • 8000 specialists are involved into pharmaceutical sphere in Belarus, and labor costs are the lowest among the EAEC countries. • Production of generics is most risk-free segment of pharmaceutical market, allowing to achieve up to 40% of profitability with comparatively low investments (USD 10-120 million). Imports of major FPP in the Customs Union, USD bn* Market structure of pharmaceutical substances in Belarus FPP market structure in Belarus and Russia (money terms) • MARKETS • Customs Union countries: • Possibility of duty-free access to the Customs Union market. • Imported pharmaceuticals continue to play a vital role in the market of the EAEC. The share of imported drugs in Russia is 76.8%, Kazakhstan - 88%. • In December 2014 the Agreement on common principles and rules of circulation of drugs and medical devices in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union was signed. • In January 1, 2016 the common market of drugs starts functioning in the EAEC. • Domestic Belarusian market: • Belarusian pharmaceutical market has a huge capacity. Imports of pharmaceutical products in 2014 amounted to USD 817 million, the annual import growth is 8%. • The share of imported drugs is about 71%. • The consumption of drugs per capita in Belarus (USD 112) is lower than in Russia (approx. 141 USD) • The pharmaceutical market of Belarus is 1 USD bn. *By HS code 30
Production of generics • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • At the end of 2014 the volume of the global pharmaceutical market exceeded USD 1 trillion (+ 8.4%). By 2018 the market volume is expected to increase up to 1.3 trillion USD. • In 2014-2018 the global pharmaceutical patent protection of drugs expires with total sales of USD 121 bn. • The global generics market in 2015 is estimated at 315 bn dollars, CAGR over the next five years has been 12%. • Local opportunities: • Russia has the 3rd place for rapid growing and is among top 7 largest pharmaceutical markets in the world. • Experts expect Brasilian, Russian and Indian market to be increased by 9-14% by 2020. • In the recent years the generics market in Russia has been increased by 9% on average annually. • Generics account for 54% of the Russian pharmaceutical market. • The share of the Belarusian hospital market in value terms is 26.7%, Russia - 31.2%. • In Belarus there is a state program for the development of import-substituting production of pharmaceutical substances, ready-made medicines and diagnostics. • The consumption of pharmaceuticals per capita in Belarus has increased by USD 41 and has amounted to USD112.5. • The share of homeopathic medicines costing over USD 10 in the structure of the retail pharmaceutical market for over 6 years has increased from 21% to 38% • Promising segments: • Antibacterial agents prevail in the Belarusian pharmaceutical market in terms of sales, the share of their imports is 75% • The leader of the Russian pharmaceutical market is the segment of "Alimentary tract and metabolism“, which occupies 20% of the market. World pharmaceutical market, USD bn Consumption of homeopathic medicines , 2014 г., USD ТОP-10 groups of medicines in Russian market, 2014, % Russian market of homeopathic medicines, in physical terms POTENTIAL INVESTORS Chinese and Indian substancesand finished pharma product producers, aimed at locating their production on the Customs Union market. • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Capex for the project implementation totals USD 10-120 mnon average. • Profitability of generics production depends on the product’s stand and totals 15-25% on average, reaching sometimes 40%. • IRR is 15-30%depending on the success of the product in the market. Original drug producers intending to enter generics market. Special purpose venture funds (in case of technologically difficult and innovative projects.)
Production of implants and endoprostheses • PROJECT • Proposed project – production ofimplants for osteosynthesis and endoprostheses for joints. • Feasibility of establishing a production of implants and endoprosthesesis determined by the following factors: • Availability of highly qualified specialists and successful experience in creating similar productions. • High growth rate of imports to Russia (CAGR +13% since 2009).In 2014 imports of endoprosthesesexceededUSD 254 million. • Localization of production close to final consumers (primarily Russia). • The main markets are the markets of Russia, Kazakhstan and the emerging markets of China, Brazil and other countries. • Investment costs are estimated at USD 15-20million, payback period – 5 years. Imports of endoprosthesis to Russia, USD mn Structure of implants consumption in Russia • SALES MARKETS • Customs Union market: • Russian endoprosthesesmarket consists mostly of imported products. It is estimated that imported endoprosthesesexceed 95% of the market. • There are only some manufacturers producing large joints endoprostheses in Russia (ARETE, Implant MT, Endoservice, YAR-TEZ, Osteomed, KMZ). Their market share is insignificant. • Average annual growth rate of endoprostheses imports to Russia in 2009-2014 amounted to +13%, imports exceeded USD 250 million in 2014. • Implants for osteosynthesis account for abouta half of the implants market in Russia. • Endoprosthetic replacement operations in Russia are performed by using patients’ funds or high-tech medical carequotas within the compulsory health insurance. • Developing countries market: • Emerging markets (BRIC) for the last 5 years have shown a significant growth in consumption. Share of BRIC countries in global consumption of medical equipmentexceeded 10%.Chinese market is the 3rd in the world at the present time. • Thus, the most promising market is the Customs Union market as well as the market of developing countries. Planned number of endoprosthetic replacement operations in Russia Imports of endoprosthesis to Belarus, USD mn
Production of implants and endoprostheses • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • The average annual growth of the global endoprosthesis market for the period of 2012-2017 is forecasted at 10% which is higher than the rate of global GDP growth during this period. • It is estimated that the global endoprosthesis market will exceed USD 23,5 bndollars in 2017. • There are more widespread degenerative joints diseases and ageing of population observed. • Regional opportunities: • Growth in consumption of medical equipment and furniture in emerging markets is conditioned by a significant growth in personal income and demand forqualityhealthcare services. • The total demand for endoprosthesis replacement operations in Russia amounts to about 300-400 thousand per year while only less than 100 thousand operations isactually performed. • There is a practice to allocate budgetary funds (quotas) for endoprosthesis replacement in Russia. Thus, the majority of patients requiring endoprosthesis replacement, is waiting for subsidized medical care sometimes up to 1-2 years. • Since 2015 Russian imports of medical equipment and products hasalmost been limited.If there are 2 or moreoffers from EAEU countries producers taking part in a tender for supply for governmental and municipal needs, the offers from any other countries will not be accepted. In addition to that, the share of bulk purchases on the medical products market in Russia amounted to 72%. • After the fulfillment of regional program of modernization of healthcare for 2006-2012 themarket for medical equipment and furniture in Russia decreased. The recovery of the market is expected in 2017-2018, as a resultof deterioration and the end of technical lifetime of the equipment and furniturebought on a program of healthcare modernization. • There is a government health development programme for 2013-2020 in Russia, which provides annual allotmentsof about USD 4-5 bn. • Despite the forecasted slowdown in the rate of growth of the Russian medical products market on the whole, the orthopaedics medical products market is forecasted to grow more rapidly. Forecast of global endoprosthesis market, USD bn Number of endoprosthetic operations per 100 thousand residents Size of medical products market in Russia Growth rate forecast for the market of MP and MP for orthopaedics Strategic investors Population over working age, % Leading producers of endoprostheses wishing to localize production close to sales markets Specialized venture capital funds The share of medical products imports to Russia for some segments POTENTIAL INVESTORS • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Investment costs for the creation of facilities for implants and endoprosthesesproduction are estimated at USD 15-20million. • Expected payback period of the project may amount to 5 years. • IRR for the project may reach around 18-20%.
Production of satellites and equipment for satellites • PROJECT • Proposed project - manufacturing of satellites and equipment for satellites. • The project is considered promising due to the following reasons: • Military complex, telecommunication sector and navigation services companies are the largest consumers of satellites and equipment for satellites now. • At the end of 2012 the total volume of the global satellite and services market totaled USD 203 bn, which showed an increase of 3.1 times compared to 2001 (USD 64.4 bn). • According to forecasts, by 2020 948 small satellites will have been launched , which is 37 times more than in 2010. • Belarus has successful experience in the designing and launching of the satellite remote sensing. • Manufacturing of satellites and equipment for satellites is oriented on the BRIC countries, CIS countries and Gulf countries markets. • Capex varies between USD 100-500 million, IRR25-40%. Key markets BRIC countries CIS countries Gulf countries • MARKETS • Foreign markets: • BRIC countries, CIS countries and Gulf countries are the key markets for satellites and equipment for satellites. • USA (32%), China (23%) and EU (22%) are the largest satellites markets in the world. • The share of commercial satellites in the USA is 62% . Military satellites dominate in the Russian market. • Rapid growth is expected in commercial satellites segment, but the growth of consumption of satellites in the military sector is expected to slow down. • Military complex, telecommunication sector and navigation services companies are the largest consumers of satellites and equipment for satellites now. • Russian market: • The share of Russian Federation in global satellites market is 16%. • Chinese market: • By 2020 China is going to reach 15% from global satellites market. The world satellites production, USD bn
Production of satellites and equipment for satellites • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • USD 203 bnwas the total volume of global satellites and services market in 2014. Satellites market has tripled since 2001 (USD 64,4 bn). • CAGR of global satellites and services market for last 5 years is 5%. • At present the share of the USA in the world production of satellites is about 43%. • The world satellites production at the end of 2014 amounted to USD 15.9 bn. CAGR in this segment at the end of the period of 2010-2014 was 7%. • According to SpiceWorks in 2014 there were launched 158 small satellites, including 107 commercial, which exceeded analysts' estimates and revealed the increase of 72% by 2013. • According to Euroconsult, in the period from 2014 to 2023 there will be launched 353 satellite remote sensing (RS) into space. As a result, the global remote sensing market will grow up to USD 36 bn, which is 85% more than the results of the last 10 years of 2004-2013. • Regional opportunities: • Russia has been developing the concept of development activities in remote sensing of the Earth. Russia accounts for 0.2% of the global market data and remote sensing products. The largest share is held by the US (61%) and France (18%). • Airbus Defence and Space as well as Russian space systems, OJSC signed the agreement on manufacturing of satellites equipment in Russia . • Financing of the military-industrial complex of Russia is planned to reach the level of about 300 billion dollars by 2020. Global satellites and services market, USD bn Structure of global satellites market, 2014 The dynamics of small satellites launching in the world and forecast by 2019, units The use of satellites according to purpose, December 31, 2014 ATTRACTIVE SEGMENTS communication services satellites INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES POTENTIAL INVESTORS CAPEX USD 100-500 million The major manufacturers of satellites from China, Russia, France and Japan. production of remote sensing satellites IRR 25-40% production equipment and systems for satellites
Production of ultrasound machines Russian medical equipment and products market, 2005-2014 • PROJECT • Proposed project – production of equipment for ultrasound investigation. • Feasibility of establishing a production of equipment for ultrasound investigation is determined by the following factors: • Availability of highly qualified specialists and successful experience in creating similar productions. • Localization of production close to final consumers (primarily Russia). • Project attractiveness is determined by high growth rate of imports to Russia (CAGR +5% since 2009).In 2014 imports of medical equipment for ultrasound investigation amounted to around USD 275 million. • The main markets are the markets of Russia, Kazakhstan and the emerging markets of China, Brazil and other countries. • Investment costs are estimated at USD 15-30million, payback period – 5years. • SALES MARKETS • Customs Union market: • The Russian market of medical equipment and products in 2014 reached 197 bn RUB (around USD5,1 bn), long-term market growth rate amounts to 11% per year. • There are local manufacturers of equipment for ultrasound investigation in Russia: RPE “RATEKS”, Spectromed, MTL, etc. However, local producers are estimated to account for not more than 5% of the ultrasound devices market, the rest is imported. • In 2014 imports of equipment for ultrasound investigation amounted to USD 275 million. CAGR of ultrasound equipment imports to Russia in 2009-2014 amounted to +5%. • Developing countries market (China, India, Turkey): • Emerging markets for the last 5 years have shown a significant growth in consumption. Thus, for example, Chinese market is the 3rd in the world at the present time. • Thus, the most promising market is the Customs Union market as well as the market of developing countries. Imports of equipment for ultrasound investigation to Russia, USDmn Structure of ultrasonographs imports to Russia
Production of ultrasound machines • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • Global diagnostic imaging market exceeded USD 26bnin 2014. • Global diagnostic imaging market is expected to reachUSD 35,8bnin 2020. CAGR is forecasted to reach 5,2% during 2014-2020. • Diagnostic imaging equipment accounts for about a third of the global market for medical equipment. Moreover, equipment for ultrasound investigation accounts for about 20% of the global market for diagnostic imaging equipment. • There is a constant ageing ofpopulation and expansion of application fields of diagnostic imaging equipment observed all over the world. • Regional opportunities: • Developed countries account for two-thirds of the market, the share of developing countries is 36%, which is forecasted to reach about 40% by 2017. • Growth in consumption of medical equipment and products in emerging markets is conditioned by a significant growth in personal income. • After the fulfillment of regional program of modernization of healthcare for 2006-2012 themarket for medical equipment and furniture in Russia decreased. The recovery of the market is expected in 2017-2018, as a resultof deterioration and the end of technical lifetime of the equipment and furniturebought on a program of healthcare modernization. • There is a government health development programme for 2013-2020 in Russia, which provides annual assignments of about USD 4-5 bn. • Since 2015 Russian imports of medical equipment and products hasalmost been limited.If there are 2 or moreoffers from EAEU countries producers taking part in a tender for supply for governmental and municipal needs, the offers from any other countries will not be accepted. In addition to that, the share of bulk purchases on the medical products market in Russia amounted to 72%. • Market development will be determined not only by renovation and modernization of existing health care organizations, but also by the commissioning of new facilities (incl. private medicine). About 8-9 thousand beds are commissioned annually in Russia. Forecast of global imaging market, USD bn Global medical products market Structure of diagnostic imaging equipment market Size of medical products market in Russia Comissioning of healthcare organisations,thousands hosp. beds The share of medical products imports to Russia for some segments • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Investment costs for the creation of facilities for ultrasound equipment production are estimatedat USD 15-30million. • Expected payback period of the project may amountto 5years. • IRR for the project may reach around 18-20%. POTENTIAL INVESTORS Strategic investors Leading producers of ultrasound equipment wishing to localize production Specialized venture capital funds
Production of video control system • PROJECT • Proposed project - video control systems manufacturing. • The project is worth of implementation due to the following factors: • Global video control system market worth USD 15 bn in 2014. • It is expected that global video control system market will reach USD 23,6 bn in 2018 with compound average growth rate 12%. • Markets – Custom Union (Russian imports of video control systems and dashboard cameras accounted for USD 501 million in 2014, CAGR +27%). Main countriesimporting video control system on Custom Union market are China and South Korea. • The move to IP is no longer so much a trend as it is simple fact. It is projected that IP video cameras will replace analog in the near future and takes 85,5% of the market in 2018. • Capital expenditures for the project may vary between USD 5-40 million with IRR approximately20-25%. Import of video control systems in Russia, USD million • MARKETS • Russian market: • Imports of video control systems and dashboard cameras in Russia accounted for USD 501 million in 2014 (CAGR from 2009 to 2014 was +27%). • Main countriesimporting video control system in Russian market are China (more than 90%), South Korea, Malaysia. • Belarusian internal market: • Imports of video control systems and dashboard cameras in Belarus is around USD 6 million. • Main countriesimporting video control system in Belarusian market are China and South Korea. • EU market: • Imports of video control systems and dashboard cameras in EU is around USD 1,7 million. Structure of Russian video control systems import, %
Production of video control system • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • Global video control system market worth USD 15 bn in 2014. • It is expected that global video control system market will reach USD 23,6 bn in 2018 with compound average growth rate 12%. • One of the fastest growing market is East Europe and CIS market. The market is expected to have annual growth rate about 30%. • Solutions for vehicles traffic monitoring, surveillance and demographic observation form the main demand for the video control systems. Video surveillance systems are also used to increase security measures to prevent and combat criminal and terrorist activities. • Local opportunities: • Russian video control market is on early development stage and accounts for USD 570 million. It is expected that video control market in Russia will increase at 18,4% in 2015-2021. • Large sport events such as World Cup 2018 in Russia form a significant demand for video control systems. • There are regional programs called “Safe town” in Russia that are aimed at increasing installation of video surveillance cameras in the streets. • Attractive segments: • The move to IP is no longer so much a trend as it is simple fact. It is expected that IP video cameras will replace analog in the near future and takes 85,5% of the market in 2018. • The most popular video cameras on the market are IP cameras 180/360 ("fish-eye") - it is expected that it sales will grow by 70% in 2015. Global video control systems market, USD bn Regional structure of global video control systems market Share of Russia is estimated at 20-25% of European market Structure of global video control systems market by application Structure of global video control systems market by type of product INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES POTENTIAL INVESTORS Large producers of video control systems from China, South Korea and South-East Asia CAPEX USD 5-40 million IRR 20-25%
Production of X-Ray equipment Russian medical equipment and products market, 2005-2014 • PROJECT • Proposed project – production of equipment for X-ray examinations. • Feasibility of establishing a production of X-ray equipment is determined by the following factors: • Availability of highly qualified specialists and R&D in the field of X-ray equipment, successful experience in creating similar productions. • Localization of production close to final consumers (primarily Russia). • Significant import volumes to Russia.In 2014 imports of X-ray equipment exceeded USD 170 million. • The main markets are the markets of Russia, Kazakhstan and the emerging markets of China, Brazil and other countries. • Investment costs are estimated at USD 30-50million, payback period – 6-7 years. • SALES MARKETS • Customs Union market: • The Russian market of medical equipment and products in 2014 reached 197 bn RUB (around 5,1 bn USD), long-term market growth rate amounts to 11% per year. • X-ray equipment market in Russia consists mostly of imported units, such as Philips, Siemens, GeneralElectric, Toshiba, Shimadzu, etc. • There are also local producers (created on the basis of cooperation with foreign manufacturers) in Russia. Local players represent the middle price segment (Electron, Amico, Gelpik, SpektrAp, ELTECH-Med, etc.). However, their share is insignificant (less than 5% of the market for diagnostic imaging equipment). • In 2014 imports of X-ray equipment in Russia exceeded USD 170 million. • Developing countries market (China, India, Turkey): • Emerging markets for the last 5 years have shown a significant growth in consumption. Thus, for example, Chinese market is the 3rd in the world at present. • Thus, the most promising markets are the Customs Union market as well as the market of developing countries. Imports of X-ray equipment to Russia,mn USD Geographical structure of X-ray equipment imports to Russia
Production of X-Ray equipment • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Global opportunities: • Global diagnostic imaging market exceeded USD 26bnin 2014. • Global diagnostic imaging market is expected to reachUSD 35,8bnin 2020. CAGR is forecasted to reach 5,2% during 2014-2020. • Diagnostic imaging equipment accounts for about a third of the global market for medical equipment. Moreover, X-ray equipment also accounts for about a third (34%) of the global market for diagnostic imaging equipment. • There is a constant ageing ofpopulation and expansion of application fields of diagnostic imaging equipment all over the world. • Regional opportunities: • Developed countries account for two-thirds of the market, developing countries’ share is 36%, which is forecasted to reach about 40% by 2017. • After the fulfillment of regional program of modernization of healthcare for 2006-2012 themarket for medical equipment and furniture in Russia has decreased. The recovery of the market is expected in 2017-2018, as a resultof deterioration and the end of technical lifetime of the equipment and furniturebought on a program of healthcare modernization. • There is a government health development programme for 2013-2020 in Russia, which provides annual assignments of about USD 4-5 bn. • Since 2015 Russian imports of medical equipment and products hasalmost been limited.If there are 2 or moreoffers from EAEU countries producers taking part in public procurement for governmental and municipal needs, the offers from any other countries will not be accepted. In addition to that, the share of bulk purchases on the medical products market in Russia amounted to 72%. • The technologies used for X-ray scanners manufacturing in Russia are outdated and don’t meet international standards. • Market development will be determined not only by renovation and modernization of existing health care organizations, but also by the commissioning of new facilities (incl. private medicine). About 8-9 thousand beds are commissioned annually in Russia. Structure of global medical products market Forecast of global diagnostic imaging market, USD bn Structure of diagnostic imaging equipment market Medical products market in Russia Strategic investors Comissioning of healthcare organisations,thousands hosp. beds The share of medical products imports to Russia for some segments Leading producers of X-ray equipment wishing to localize production Specialized venture capital funds POTENTIAL INVESTORS • INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Investment costs for the creation of facilities for X-ray equipment production are estimated at USD 30-50million. • Expected payback period of the project may amount to 6-7years. • IRR for the project may reach around 15%.
Contract manufacturing of electronics (EMS) • Project • Proposed project - a modern plant for contract manufacturing of electronics (EMS*). • The main characteristics of the market : • By 2018 the market of EMS in Central and Eastern Europe will reach USD 18,5 bn. • Huawei, Lenovo и ZTE announced a setting up of manufacturing in Belarus, which will significantly increase the domestic demand for EMS services. • Implementation of the electronics industry development project in Russia, which involves investment of USD 16 bn till 2025 . • * Electronic manufacturing services – industry, that provides services for the assembly, logistics and after-sales service for manufacturers of final electronic products. Markets Eastern Europe is a strategically important place for the contract manufacturers of electronics. More and more manufacturers transferred their production facilities here, looking for cost reduction. This is the main factor for 53% of the manufacturers. The volume of the electronics market in Russia is estimated at USD 34 bn in 2015 , while to the contract manufacturing of components belongs only 710 million. It offers opportunities to fill the existing demand for components . • Market of Eastern and Central Europe is responsible for 58% of EMS production volumes in Europe. • EMS market capacity in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) amounts to USD 80,7 bn. Comparison of EMS and OEM markets of Russia, USD bn. 34 Growth potential 0,7 EMS (contract manufacturing of electronics and components) OEM (assembly of the end user equipment)
Contract manufacturing of electronics (EMS) • Market opportunities • Global opportunities: • The size of the EMS segment in the global electronics market has nearly doubled in the past 6 years. • According to the forecast, in the next few years the EMS market will grow due to such industries as defense, aerospace industry, medicine. • Promising fields of the EMS sector are: a thick and thin- film hybrid microelectronics, the use of conductive inks. • Local opportunities: • The European EMS market remains the largest after Asia, with sales in 2015 of USD 43,4 bn. It is expected to grow at 4% annually till 2020. • Imports of the electrical equipment in Baltic countries is also growing: in 2014 the volume of such imports in Latvia grew by 15,7% in comparison with the same period in 2010. • Less than 10 companies on the Russian market can be called serious players in the EMS industry. It makes the market accessible. • The main drivers of growth in the EMS industry are: • The increase in production of the Russian defense industry in 2013 amounted to 25%. Russia is the second country in the world comparing the growth rates of defense industry. • Russia launched a national program to support domestic manufacturers of medical equipment, which is estimated at USD 2,5 bn. • A national program aimed at increasing the share of Russia in the world production of space technology from 10 to 16% by 2020 is being implemented. • The largest manufacturers of final electronic products (OEM) Huawei, ZTE and Lenovo are registered as residents of the Chinese-Belarusian industrial park, which will significantly increase the demand for EMS in the country. • At the moment EMS market is one of the most fast growing in the world. Manufacturers of the original equipment are trying to cut costs by outsourcing. • Production of goods "durables" for long-term use is a leading branch, that takes 37% of the industry and uses outsourcing. * - Asic-Pasific region is not included
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