Bottom-up Exploration of Structural Transformation

1. Bottom-up Exploration of Structural Transformation Lessons from a Foresight Exercise on the Future of Innovation Philine Warnke, Elna Schirrmeister Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe INFU presentation // SLIDE 1

2. Methodological Challenge How to explore systemic change arising from within systems? INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

3. Case in point: Innovation social innovation, relational innovation, public sector innovation, low-tech innovation, service innovation, user driven innovation, everyday innovation, socio-technical innovation “Grand challenge driven innovation” ... The very notion of innovation is shifting ... Future innovation landscape may function according to a different logic all-together Need for „mode2 foresight“ INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

4. INFU Project and Methodology INFU Project: www.innovation-futures.org Financed by the European Commission, SSH activity line Foresight Consortium: Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), coordinatior Fraunhofer ISI Solutioning Design Scenarios Z_Punkt the Foresight company Methodology – four measures to underpin openness for systemic change Bottom-up approach Visual inspiration Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions Extended openness for diversity (prolonged divergence) INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

5. I. Bottom-up approach – Overview (1) INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

6. I. Bottom-up approach – Signal scanning (2) INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

7. I. Bottom-up approach – Amplification of signals (3) SelectionofsignalsAmplificationofselectedsignals Transfers to other sectors, to other user groups... e.g. from fashion to furniture industry; elderly people instead of kids or vice versa... Generalisation as the mainstream practice... e.g. what if active users involvement in innovation processes would become the default… Radicalisation of the principle... e.g. what if user involvement in innovation process developed into an innovation actively developed by the demand... INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

8. I. Bottom-up approach – Experiences (4) The bottom-up approach was successful… Diverse signals were considered The signals overview was considered as very valuable by many experts But… Still difficult to go beyond today’s notion of innovation A continuous signal scanning would be desirable During the scanning process diverse people and perspectives should be included. INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

9. II. Visual Inspiration – Example: 19 Visions (1) Pictograms supported quick understanding of the main idea of the vision clustering of several visions during the interviews creative discussions between different experts INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

10. II. Visual Inspiration – Supported clarity of visions All visions were assessed predominantly clear by more than 60% of the experts. INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

11. II. Visual Inspiration – Experiences (3) Visual inspiration turned out to be “the” main characteristic of the project. Visions were easy to grasp because of visualisation. High recognition value because of the images and the film based on the visualisation of the visions. High interest in the project and high response rate for the survey and the survey were achieved because of the inspiring images. Creative discussions were fostered by visual inspiration. INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

12. III. Rigorous assessment of coverage – Dimensions of change analysed (1) Dimension of change dominant specification in the past INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

13. III. Rigorous assessment of coverage – Experiences (2) The dimensions of change-scheme proved to be valuable for analysing the different visions. Coincident changes of the visions were identified, such as… Shift towards demand driven innovation More diffused involvement in the innovation process More diverse innovation skills Diverging changes of the visions were identified, such as… Motivation of the innovation (profit versus mission driven) Continuity of the innovation process (permanent versus ocasional) Accessibility of the innovation (free versus private) But… blind spots in the scheme could have been analysed more intensively. INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

14. IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panels set-up (1) The open phase of divergence was deliberately prolonged in the INFU project compared to “classical” scenario processes. Mini-panels were set up for eight innovation nodes consisting of several visions. Only throughout the vision assessment the mini-panel coordinators were identified. Mini-panel coordinators were sub-contracted and were free to chose a visioning methodology and a way to express their vision. Typical means developed were: archetypes of persons, organisations, infrastructure (Waste based innovation, Innovation chain masters) abstract schemes (open innovation city, social experimentation, Innocamp society, automatised innovation) emblematic images (widespread creativity) stories from the future (deliberative innovation, open innovation city) INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

15. IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panel coordinators (2) INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

16. IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panels example (3) Element from INFU Vision “Widespread Creativity (Global Innovation Studio, 2010) INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

17. IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panels example (4) Element from INFU Vision „Participatory Innovation“ (Jégou, 2010) INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

18. IV. Prolonged divergence – Mini-panels example (5) People liked it! John was a bit surprised, then he got euphoric! Maybe his idea would go on and become an innovation for the future. He posted his idea only 45 minutes ago and already 1206 people had voted for it as being interesting and something that should be taking further. He could also see that the selection committee had looked at it… What was that – now the idea was not just at the idea interface, they also put it on the partnership interface. Now it was no longer just an idea, no they wanted to find people who could actually carry out an innovation process based on his idea, scientist, entrepreneurs, funding. Back at the idea interface he could see that quite many people had started to work on with his idea, putting new angles to it, combining it with their own ideas, suggesting specific technological development. Most of it was not in line with his original thoughts, but he had to admit that some of the suggestions where really good. Improving the first idea a lot! Element from INFU Mini-Panel Vision “Deliberative Innovation”(Danish Board of Technology, 2010) “A day in a life of a citizen in Deliberative Innovation Scheme” INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

19. IV. Prolonged divergence – Experiences (6) The prolonged divergence ensured the extended involvement of distinct stakeholders and innovation experts from all over Europe. Suitable experts were identified only throughout the project evolvement based on project results. A deepened understanding of different points of view and perspectives was ensured. A rich variety of different means to express a vision was developed. But…. Not all mini-panels developed a vision according to our understanding. The effort needed for formal contract arrangement increased notably. INFU presentation // SLIDE 2

20. Conclusions The innovative bottom-up INFU methodology succeeded in opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation with relevance for society, business and policy. The findings may provide useful insight for innovation strategies directed at structural transformation for addressing the Grand Challenges. INFU presentation // SLIDE 2