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Introduction

Improvements in Skill of CPC Outlooks Ed O’Lenic and Ken Pelman, NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center 33rd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 21-24, 2008, Lincoln, Nebraska. Introduction. This paper discusses recent improvements in the skill and coverage of CPC T, P Outlooks.

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Introduction

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  1. Improvements in Skill of CPC OutlooksEd O’Lenic and Ken Pelman, NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center 33rd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 21-24, 2008, Lincoln, Nebraska

  2. Introduction This paper discusses recent improvements in the skill and coverage of CPC T, P Outlooks. The heidke skill score and the percentage of non-EC probabilities are the performance measures. s = ((c-e)/(t-e))*100 , -50 < s < 100 s is the percent improvement over random forecasts

  3. CPC 3-Month Outlook map lines show the probability that the indicated category, B, N, or A, will occur. • In blank regions, the probabilities of B, N, A are equal at 1/3 each (EC), and give no forecast. • Lines show Non-EC (potentially useful) forecast regions. • On a line, probabilities of B and A vary simultaneously and inversely above and below 33.33%, while that of N usually stays at 33.33%. • The 3 sum to 100% at every point on the map.

  4. How CPC Outlooks are Made • CPC 3-month outlooks are currently made using a combination of at least 5 tools, in consultation with partners. • From 1995- 2004 these tools were weighted subjectively. In 2006, an objective consolidation (CON) was introduced, which weights the tools by skill history and spread (Unger et al, 2008). • Retrospective verification of CON forecasts shows them to be much more skillful than official (OFF) 1995-2004 outlooks (O’Lenic et al, 2008), in both categorical U.S. average skill, and in coverage by non-equal-chances (non-EC) forecasts, properties users want.

  5. NEW OTLK

  6. NEW OTLK

  7. HSS OFF ½ MO LEAD PRECIPITATION RESULTS Heidke Skill Score (HSS, lines) and Percent Non-EC (colors), Map average % Non-EC. A. OFFICIAL FORECAST (OFF) B. CONSOLIDATION (CON) C. DIFFERENCE, CON-minus-OFF, US average% Non-EC CON raises US annual average HSS from 9 to 12 compared with OFF Area non-ec=14% Area non-ec=27% A Map color legend, % Area non-ec=20% Area non-ec=33% HSS CON DIF Area non-ec=35% Area non-ec=32% +8% +18% B C Area non-ec=53% Area non-ec=36% +20% +16%

  8. HSS OFF ½ MO LEAD TEMPERATURE RESULTS Heidke Skill Score (HSS, lines) and Percent Non-EC (colors), Map average % Non-EC. A. OFFICIAL FORECAST (OFF) B. CONSOLIDATION (CON) C. DIFFERENCE CON – OFF US average% Non-EC CON raises US annual average HSS from 22 to 26 compared with OFF Area non-ec=47 Area non-ec=46 A Map color legend, % Area non-ec=27 Area non-ec=41 HSS CON DIF Area non-ec=78 Area non-ec=57 +11% +31% B C +40% +55% Area non-ec=96% Area non-ec=67

  9. GPRA Score Official Skill Metric:48-Mo. Running Mean U.S. Average T HSS

  10. SUMMARY - Outlook prepared subjectively 1995-2004 - Objective consolidation begun 2006 - Retrospective verification shows significant increase in CON skill over OFF - Western and Eastern P forecasts better than many areas - Forecasts are better, more objective - Higher categorical skill - Far fewer “EC” forecasts - P HSS rosefrom 9 (OFF) to 12 (CON) (US ann. mean) - T HSS rose from 22 (OFF) to 26 (CON) (US ann. mean) - % Non-EC rises in all seasons, >30% for P, >50% for T - Official T skill rose starting in 2006 due to use of CON.

  11. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Example of a Means to Address Gaps What FET and CLIDDSS provide: • User-centric forecast evaluation and data access and display capability. • Leveraging of community software development capabilities. • Opportunity to DISCOVER, collect, and invest in user requirements.

  12. FUTURE: Implement FET at CPC

  13. FUTURE: Implement FET at CPC

  14. FET:A Wide Variety of Skill Renderings A B A B A B B A T P B B A A

  15. FUTURE of the FET Next 6 months: • Finalize and implement FET project plan at CPC. • Ellen Lay (CLIMAS) to train CPC personnel on FET version control and bug tracking at CPC, November 12-14, 2008. • Necessary software (APACHE TOMCAT, JAVA, Desktop View) acquired and installed at CPC. • Forecast, observations datasets in-place at CPC. • FET code ported to CPC, installed, tested. • FET installed to NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) servers

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