Nature – not Human Activity – Rules the Climate

1. Nature – not Human Activity – Rules the Climate Lyncean Society, San Diego Jan. 12, 2011 S. Fred Singer, Science & Environmental Policy Project <Singer@NIPCC report.org>

2. 20th Cy Warming: AGW or Natural? • Both are plausible. What says the evidence? • Comparison of observations and models • IPCC-4: Global mean sfc temp vs a composite calculated curve, using adjustable parameters. But this is simply an exercise in ‘curve-fitting.’ • IPCC-2, CCSP-1.1 and NIPCC use fingerprint method (latitude&altitude patterns of trends): Comparison of balloon/sat data vs GH-models • Douglass et al (2007) vs Santer et al (2008)

5. CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change

6. CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 5, Figure 7E

7. A more detailed view of the disparity: Douglass, Christy, Pearson, Singer - 2007

8. Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change -- NIPCC An independent examination of published IPCC evidence by an international group of some 30 climate experts from 16 nations Organized in 2003 by Prof. S. Fred Singer as “Team B;” workshop in Vienna, April 2007 Summary for Policy-Makers and Technical Summary, published by Heartland Institute in March 2008

11. Which set of temp observations ? • Santer et al 2008 [S08] relies on visual overlap between obs and modeled trends • Direct sonde data: authors are not retracting • Trends from re-analysis likely spurious -Christy • But S08 shows both data sets agree with sat • Hence, we need better discriminant: MT – LT is sensitive to Upper Trop

12. Temperature Changes from more than 30 Years of Satellite Observations Source: drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures

13. MSU Weighting Functions

14. LT & MT Tropics Temp Trend (degK/decade) (1979 to Yr xxxx)

15. Uncertainties of Modeled Trends • Structural Uncertainties: model differences • Choice of forcings • Choice of parameters (clouds, etc) • Chaotic Uncertainty: sensitive to initial values • Typically an order of magnitude – or more • How many model runs (“simulations”) are necessary to get the ‘true’ temp trend: 5,10, 25? • IPCC Practice: First form the “ensemble-means” and then average over all models (but most models trends are based on only one or two runs)

16. Figure 2.22

19. Empirical Study of Model ‘Ensemble-Mean’ (EM) • Choose an Unforced 1000-yr Model • Divide into 25 chunks of 40 years each • Calculate ‘ensemble-mean’ vs no. of runs: its value must be zero (for an unforced model) • The EM reaches asymptotic value after ~10 runs • Repeat: Create trends for 100 runs • Trends show a Gaussian distribution

20. Temperatures of Unforced Model

21. Cumulative Mean Trend

22. Summing Up: Obs and GH Models NOT Consistent • Santer + 16 coauthors [Intl J Clim 2008] claim: “Consistency of Modeled and Observed Temp Trends…” BUT • New set of troposphere temp is spurious • Analysis of model uncertainties is incomplete

23. Climate fears distort energy policy • Climate change is a non-problem; not amenable to human influence or control • Our problem are politicians who claim to “save the climate” and destroy the economy • It takes real courage for politicians to resist the urge and “do nothing” • Example: RES (Renewable Electricity Standard) – calls for 15%+ use of wind and solar

24. Renewable Electricity Standard • Bi-partisan madness: Bingaman, Brownback et al – high-cost, intermittent, unreliable power • A FRAUD: Will not reduce CO2 emissions. Will not reduce oil imports. Why not nuclear? • A HOAX: CO2 is NOT a pollutant; has negligible effect on climate. • A RIP-OFF: Taxpayer pays for govt subsidies; ratepayers milked by “feed-in tariff”

27. Two Economic Issues • 1. Cost-Benefit Analysis • 2. Cap & Trade

28. Dilemma for Politicians When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, Sir? John M. Keynes

30. Other Scientific Issues • Sea Level rise • ‘Hockeystick’ controversy • Climate models shortcomings; • IPCC-2 changes; IPCC-4 curve-fitting • Solar control of climate change; GCRclouds • IPCC efforts to simulate 20th century temps • D-O events; 1500-yr cycle; Temp-CO2 relation • SST problems: Skin effects; OHC; Buoys • Climate Sensitivity;Feedback issues; Saturation

33. Sea Level Rise to 2100 H R S

35. a. b. Temperature Deviation (C)

36. Source : http://climate.uah.edu/maps/30yrbig.jpg

39. Stalagmite Records in Oman 14C – a Proxy for Solar Activity 18O – a Proxy for Temperature The stalagmite record shows a remarkably close correlation between 14C and 18O over a period of more than 3,000 years. Thus, a strong association exists between solar activity and temperature. Neff et al. (2001)  One Century Duration!

40. A Drastic Re-Consideration • Contrary to IPCC, Santer, the ‘hot spot’ is due to ‘moist adiabat’ [Riehl, Lindzen]--not GH gas • Any sfc warming will lead to troposph hot spot • But MSU-UAH sat data show no wmg (‘79-’97) • Hence the reported (CRU) sfc wrmg is suspect • This would explain many puzzling results [NAS 2000; Santer et al 2005; proxy data; etc] • Could the cause be ‘Neg Feedback’? Unlikely; any sfc wmg would create NF (incl 1910-40?)

41. a. b.

43. Urban Heat Island Effect Temperature Trends at 107 Californian Stations 1909 to 1994 Stratified by 1990 population of the county where station is located (A) Large Counties: More than 1 million people Average 29 stations (B) Midsized Counties: 100,000 to 1 million people Average 51 stations Temperature in degF (C) Small Counties: Less than 100,000 people Average 27 stations

44. Temperature Changes from more than 30 Years of Satellite Observations Source: drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures