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GMCC Quarterly Economic Breakfast Q1 2019

Get insights on the Greater Manchester economy with the Q1 2019 QES results and the Greater Manchester Index™. Understand key indicators, sales, orders, business confidence, and labor market data.

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GMCC Quarterly Economic Breakfast Q1 2019

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  1. Greater Manchester Chamber of CommerceQuarterly Economic Breakfast Q1 20194th April 2019

  2. Quarterly Economic Breakfast Q1 2019 What is the QES? The UK’s largest and most reliable business confidence survey, is the first to be published in each quarter and is used by key policy makers to determine economic decision-making Does sample size matter? Yes. Better the response rate, more accurate the results. The Greater Manchester QES alone has the same sample size as other national business surveys. How reliable? Very. It has accurately predicted the recessions of the 1990s and 2000s, and can disprove some early releases of national statistics (the “double-dip” that never was in 2012). Does being first matter? Yes. It allows us to help you to be ahead of the curve, often months ahead of official data. Do policy makers use the QES? Lots of them do. It’s routinely quoted by HM Treasury, the Bank of England, the European Union, the OECD and the International Monetary Fund. And, if we’re getting it right, you.

  3. Source: ONS Second Estimate of GDP; GMCC QES Q1 2019 What is The Greater Manchester Index™? • The Greater Manchester Index™ is a combination of seven key indicators taken from the QES that best indicate the overall performance of the GM economy: • Domestic Sales • Domestic orders • International sales • International orders • Confidence in turnover • Confidence in profit • Operational capacity

  4. Source: ONS Year on Year GDP CVM ; GMCC QES Q1 2019 Where were we last quarter? Summary & the Greater Manchester Index™ • Greater Manchester Index: 19.6 • A significant drop from 33 last quarter • Softening seen across most indicators • Long term business confidence remains high despite the political climate • Improvements to business environment and regional transportation & infrastructure will benefit GM • Year on year GDP growth for 2018 Q4 slightly better at 1.4% (1.3%)

  5. 1 & 2: UK Demand QES UK Sales & Orders Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 Fall in domestic sales across the board in Q1 Two quarters of decline in Construction. Current levels are slightly below 2018 Q1 levels Manufacturing sees significant fall to just above zero, near the levels of mid 2016 Services also down from the previous quarter

  6. Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 1 & 2: UK Demand QES UK Sales & Orders UK orders for next quarter have cooled off across all sectors All sectors near the levels around the EU referendum (Q2 2016) Manufacturing has declined after steady growth in all quarters of 2018 Services: below 20 again after recovering well in 2017 and 2018 Some of this may well be some early Brexit impact – financial, legal deferments Sectors’ performance is reflective of the uncertainty. Slowdown ahead of major decisions and then a rapid pick up.

  7. Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 3 & 4: International Demand QES Sales & Orders Overseas sales boost for Construction; best reported results in over 10 years Manufacturing performance is continues to fluctuate from quarter to quarter; current quarter shows sharper reduction in exports The Service sector also reports lower exports; levels near 2016 Q4

  8. Source: GMCC QES Q1 20 3 & 4: International Demand QES Sales & Orders Manufacturing and Services both drop In line with quarterly sales, Construction advance orders also see big increase

  9. Source: ONS Trade Statistics International Trade Summary Exchange rates continue to fluctuate Imports and exports in goods grew in 2018 Trade with Non-EU growing faster than EU over past twelve months EU accounts for 42% of UK exports and 52% of imports Non-tariff barriers with non-EU countries

  10. Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 5 & 6: QES - Business Confidence

  11. Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 Labour Market - QES Employment

  12. Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 Source: GMCC QES Q1 2019 Labour Market QES Employment

  13. GM QES Regional Data Quarterly Economic Breakfast Q1 2019

  14. Quarterly Economic Breakfast Q1 2019 GM North • Wigan • Bolton • Bury • Rochdale • Oldham GM South • Tameside • Stockport • Trafford • Salford GM Central • Manchester Region of economic significance GM Annual GVA : circa £67 billion 2.8 million population, expected to increase to 3.2 million by late 2030s Nearly 100,000 businesses All industry sectors represented

  15. Source: QES Q1 2019 QES Domestic Demand Source: QES Q1 2019

  16. Source: QES Q1 2019 QES International Demand Source: QES Q1 2019

  17. Source: QES Q1 2019 QES Business Confidence Source: QES Q1 2019

  18. Source: QES Q1 2019 QES Capacity Utilisation

  19. Source: QES Q1 2019 QES Labour Market Source: QES Q1 2019

  20. Source: QES Q1 2019 QES Labour Market Source: QES Q1 2019

  21. Source: MHCLG Permanent Dwellings Completions GM Housing Completions

  22. UK Economy Forecasts • 2018 Q4 growth was revised upwards to 1.4% • Downgrade in growth outlook for 2019, 2020, 2021 • BCC: 1.2% (1.3%), 1.3% (1.5%), 1.4% • OBR: 1.6% , 1.4%, 1.4% • BoE: 1.2% , 1.7%, 1.7% • We expect GM growth of 2-2.5% over the same period • All forecasts assume “smooth transition” • All forecasts done before recent political turmoil… • Within GM • Brexit uncertainty will dampen business activity and investment • Skills shortages continue but labour market data is encouraging • Focus on policy for improving business environment, skills, local infrastructure will benefit GM Source: ONS GDP Estimate; OBR Forecasts; BoE Inflation Report; BCC Forecasts

  23. Dates for your diary QES Q2 2019 fieldwork period Monday 20th May – Monday 10th June Quarterly Economic Breakfast Q2 2019 Friday 28th June

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