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ECON 2003 MACROECONOMICS. CHAPTER 9 INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS. Recessions : periods of falling incomes and rising unemployment Business cycle : short run fluctuations in outut and employment Short run fluctuations. TIME HORIZONS IN MACROECONOMICS.
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ECON 2003MACROECONOMICS CHAPTER 9 INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
Recessions: periods of falling incomes and rising unemployment • Business cycle: short run fluctuations in outut and employment • Short run fluctuations Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
TIME HORIZONS IN MACROECONOMICS • Classical theory applies to the long run, not the short run. • The key difference between short run and long run is the behaviour of prices. • In the long run, output and velocity of money are fixed; a change in the money supply affects directly prices. Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
In short run, prices are not fully flexible; thus a change in the money supply may affect output and employment. • Economic fluctuations short run price stickiness • classical dichotomy no longer holds nominal variables affect real variables. Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
Model of AS and AD • Flexible prices are crucial for the classical theory. • When prices are sticky, output depends on the demand for goods and services. • Because monetary and fiscal policies can influence the economy’s output over the time horizon when prices are sticky, there is a rationale for why these policies may be useful in stabilizing the economy in the short run. Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
Short run: prices are sticky ; capital and labor are sometimes not fully employed. • Long run: classical model; prices are flexible; capital and labor are fully employed. • Very long run: basic theory of economic growth, cpital stock, labor force and technology can change. Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
AGGREGATE DEMAND • Aggregate demand is the relationship between quantity of output demanded and aggregate price level. • The quantity equation as aggregate demand : M*V = P*Y M/P = kY • For any fixed money supply and velocity, the quantity equation yields a negative relationship between P and Y. Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
Once PY is fixed, if P goesup, Y mustgodown. • Theaggregatedemandcurve is drawnfor a fixedvalue of themoneysupply. • Ifthemoneysupplychanges, theaggregatedemandshifts. • Ifthevelocity of moneychanges, theaggregatedemandshifts. Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
AGGREGATE SUPPLY • Aggregatesupplyis therelationshipbetweenthequantity of goodsandservicessuppliedandthepricelevel. • Thelongrun: theverticalaggregatesupplycurve • Accordingtotheclassical model, outputdoesnotdepend on thepricelevel. • Theverical AS curvesatisfiestheclassicaldichotomy; output is at itsfull-employmentornaturallevel. Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
Theshortrun: thehorizontalaggregatesupplycurve • Somepricesarestickyanddonotadjusttochanges in demand. • Changes in aggregatedemand affet thelevel of output. • Fromshortruntothelongrun • Longrunequilibrium is whereshortrun AS, longrun AS and AD intersect. • Changes in aggregatedemandaffectthelevel of output in shortrun but returntothelongrunlevel . Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli
STABILIZATION POLICY • Exogenouschanges in AS or AD arecalledshockstotheeconomy. • Shocksto AD: demandshock • Shocksto AS: supplyshock • Onegoal of the AS and AD model is toshowhowshockscauseeconomicfluctuations. • Anothergoal of the model is toevaluatehowmacroeconomicpolicy can respondtotheseshocks:: stabilizationpolicy Assoc. Prof. Yesim Kustepeli