NRC Research to Support Regulatory Decisions Related to Subsequent License Renewal Periods

1. Engagement Workshop - International Forum on LWR Aging Management NRC Research to Support Regulatory Decisions Related to Subsequent License Renewal Periods C. E. (Gene) Carpenter, Jr. Group Lead for Aging Management Issues U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Gene.Carpenter@nrc.gov

2. Outline • Why Long-Term Operation • NRC Aging Management Research • Proactive Management of Materials Degradation (PMMD) • Conclusions/Path Forward

3. EIA 2008 Annual Energy Outlook Projects 30 - 50% increase (1,150 TW-hr) in U.S. electricity consumption by 2030. New load addition equivalent to 2006 consumption of California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas Equivalent to 46 new 1,000-MW power plants Critical National Needs Reduce greenhouse gases If all domestic nuclear power plants shut down by 2045, some 6.9 Billion tons of GHG reduction lost Curb increasing energy prices Cost to replace the current fleet expected to exceed $500B - in addition to the new build capacity projected to be added Ensure energy supply security and grid reliability Renewable energy sources will not meet increased energy demand and replacement requirements for base loaded, continuous supply Meet electricity demand Nuclear provides about 100 GW of base loaded, continuous supply Why Long-Term Operation?

4. Deficit Generation Nuclear Generation Fall-off Why Long-Term Operation? • Steep fall-off in generating capacity if current nuclear operations not sustained • 5% total U.S. generating capacity lost by 2035 • 15% by 2045 • Without second, and subsequent, license renewals, forced nuclear plant shutdowns could start in 2029 • These shutdowns would not be for technical or economic issues, but from a failure to prepare for extended operations of safe, clean and secure energy supply

5. Source: NEI Nuclear Policy Overview Nov/Dec 2007 The majority of generating capacity brought on line since 1990 has been fossil-based. Industry Challenges • Increased global competition • IAEA forecasting global nuclear capacity could double by 2030 • Supply chain bottlenecks (e.g. ultra-heavy forgings) • Other infrastructure needs (Refineries, LNG terminals) • Skilled labor availability concerns • Skyrocketing commodity prices • Steel +60% since 2003 • Copper +300% between 2003 and 2006 • Cement +30% between 2003 and 2006

6. Industry Challenges Haven’t built domestically in a generation

7. Timing is Critical

8. Timing is Critical

9. License Renewal Periods 105 90 75 ?? 60 Gross Capacity (GWe) Without License Renewal With License Renewal With Second License Renewal 45 30 Without License Renewal With License Renewal With Second License Renewal 15 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 Year

10. Integration of Domestic Nuclear Research Programs INDUSTRY • Profit motive / shareholder perspective • Short term research addressing known problems and managing costs / downtime • Ex: IASCC – Better, faster weld repairs needed for reliability and reduce field repair times Long Term Operability Program NRC • Public health and safety protection perspective • Confirmatory research addressing known safety issues • Ex: Better testing and repair integrity assurance methods needed Life Beyond 60 Program DOE • Long term national interest perspectives • Long term research addressing predictive and improvement opportunities • Ex: Crack precursors and irradiation damage need to be understood for better predictions and future material selection LWR Sustainability Program LWR research programs are different. Individually, each perspective contributes part of the total answer. Collectively, they address the entirety of issues that need to be answered for extended operations. Therefore, collaboration between Industry, NRC, and DOE is necessary

11. NRC’s Aging Management Research • NRC research into potential technical issues that may challenge long-term safe operation • License Renewal Rule has been successfully implemented and does not need to be changed • Challenges include: • Reactor vessel and internals • Electric cable insulation • Buried/submerged structures • Concrete exposed to high temperature and radiation • NRC is looking to collaborate with others on these • Focus on safety-significant items with high susceptibility, low knowledge, and of relevance to operating and new reactors • Compare priorities established by NRC, EPRI, DOE, and others • Coordination between prospective national & international partners

12. Impetus for Proactive Management of Materials Degradation

13. Conclusions • Research is necessary to establish basis for long-term operation of existing nuclear plants beyond 60 years, and this research will: • Answer safety questions on aging, reliability, and long-term operability of systems, structures and components • NRC ensures that safety-significant issues are identified and resolved in a timely manner • It is not NRC’s responsibility to resolve any potential aging issues that may impact continued safe operation of existing fleet • NRC seeking to collaborate with DOE, industry and international partners in an integrated, holistic program to ensure long-term safety • Leverage the resources of industry, Federal agencies, and international partners.