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Development and Applications of Systems for Modeling Emissions and Smoke from Fires: The BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, SMARTFIRE, and Associated Systems.

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  1. Development and Applications of Systems for Modeling Emissions and Smoke from Fires: The BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, SMARTFIRE, and Associated Systems Prepared by Lyle R. Chinkin1, Tara Strand2, Timothy Brown3, Scott Goodrick4, Sim Larkin2, Sean M. Raffuse1, Robert Solomon2, Dana C. Sullivan1, Pete Lahm5 1Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA 2 U.S. Forest Service AirFire Team, Seattle, WA 3Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 4U.S. Forest Service Southern High Resolution Modeling Consortium, Athens, GA5U.S. Forest Service, Washington, DC Presented at the National Air Quality Conference Dallas, TX March 2-5, 2009 3545

  2. Outline • Fire and smoke modeling in general • BlueSky Framework • SMARTFIRE • SMARTFIRE calibration & comparison analyses • BlueSky Gateway resources • Applications • National Emissions Inventory (NEI) • California Emergency Smoke Response Systems (ESRS) 2007 and 2008 • Air Quality Impacts Planning Tool (AQUIPT)

  3. INPUT SYSTEM MODEL FRAMEWORK OUTPUT SYSTEM Basics of Smoke Application WEATHER PREDICTIONS FIRE INFO SMOKE TRAJECTORIES and CONCENTRATIONS

  4. Total Consumption FireInfo TimeRate Emissions PlumeRise Dispersion / Trajectories Fuels Fire Emissions and Smoke ModelingFacilitated by BlueSky Framework Meteorological Input SMARTFIREICS-209 Rx Sys Manual Other MM5 WRF NAM NARR Other FCCS NFDRS HardyLANDFIREAg Other CONSUME 3 FOFEMFEPS EPM ClearSky (Ag)Satellite Other Rx / WF FEPSFOFEM EPMWRAPIdealizedManualOther FEPSLiteratureEPMFOFEMOther BriggsMulti-coreDaysmoke Other CalPuffHYSPLITCMAQGEMAQ

  5. Satellite fire data (NOAA Hazard Mapping System [HMS]) Ground-based reports Expert Users (e.g., Incident Command Teams) SMARTFIRE Reconciled fire data, including sub-grid fuels and plume information BlueSky Framework SMARTFIRE: Reconciled Fire Data

  6. Rangeland burns Smaller burns Burns outside U.S. Fire Emissions (SMARTFIRE) Satellite Mapping Automatic Reanalysis Tools for Fire Incident Reconciliation • Integrates and reconciles ICS-209 data with satellite-detected fire data to provide daily burn-area predictions to BlueSky • Available as a web service The Hazard Mapping System (HMS)detects more burning than is reported byICS-209

  7. 1,000,000 100,000 1,000,000 0.77 y = 16.9x 2 10,000 R = 0.937 SMARTFIRE Burned Footprint (acres) 100,000 1,000 10,000 SMARTFIRE Burned Footprint (acres) 100 1,000 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 ICS-209 Final Cumulative Area Burned (acres) 100 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 ICS-209 Final Cumulative Area Burned (acres) Wildfire Area Burned Estimates Wildfire Test Locations For the largest fires examined, SMARTFIRE final footprints match very well with final ICS-209 area estimates. SMARTFIRE tends to overestimate area burned for smaller wildfires. This relationship appears independent of ecosystem or fuel type.

  8. Smaller Fires • ICS-209 report information is not available for many small fires • Agricultural burns • Prescribed fires • Rangeland fires • Small wildfires • For these fires, available data sets will be used to validate SMARTFIRE. • The large-scale pattern of satellite detects matches fairly well with this single day of fires from a Florida fire database. • Mismatches may be due to satellite false detects, satellite non-detects, or database errors. March 8, 2007

  9. Differences Between MODIS and HMS • Because HMS includes GOES- and AVHRR-derived fire pixels in addition to MODIS, it detects more fires overall • This is especially true in the southeast, where fires are often small and/or short lived • In addition to the increased coverage, HMS provides human quality control

  10. SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 Area Burned Erroneous 209 report Few 209 reports; HMS benefits from multiple satellites and human QC

  11. SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 PM2.5 Emissions Emissions modeled with CONSUME 3 and FEPS

  12. CMAQ Smoke Modeling System on BlueSky Gateway • Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model • National-International 36-km resolution domain • Several data layers to track smoke from various fire types • Preserves carryover from previous day’s simulation • Full chemistry for secondary pollutant formation (e.g., particles and ozone) • More information at www.getbluesky.org

  13. SMARTFIRE Resources on BlueSky Gateway

  14. Predicted Fire PM2.5 for February 23 at 5:00 PM PST South of Lake Okeechobee, FL – February 21, 2009 SMARTFIRE Daily Active Fires – February 21, 2009 Triangles are active burns. Reddish areas are recently burned. Visualization with Google Earth

  15. Southern California 2007 ESRS • Requested by USDA to supplement other sources (e.g., National Weather Service [NWS]) • SMARTFIRE fire info • CMAQ and CALPUFF model outputs (plus NWS HYSPLIT) • Uses • USFS fire resource managers • EPA Smog Stories • USDA press releases • White House briefing

  16. Photochemical Modeling for 2008 ESRS • Ensure existing systems’ up-times • Automate contingencies • Automate notifications and monitoring systems • Deploy routine twice-daily predictions • Produce visual range (new), PM2.5, and ozone • Customize modeling domain

  17. Further, the forecasting assistance provided by the Forest Service through Sonoma Technology was extraordinarily useful in assisting District staff in issuing public service advisories, air quality alerts, and hazardous air quality alerts. It provided concise synopses of the forecasted smoke conditions in the District, in a readily accessible format. Daily Smoke Forecasts for 2008 ESRS: Examples of Use California Air Resources Board uses graphic in news release on August 18, 2008 (http://www.arb.ca.gov/newsrel/nr062308b.htm). North Coast Unified Air Quality Management District

  18. Fire Impact Potential (FIP) • FIP is a method for assigning relative smoke contributions from several fires. • FIP for each fire is calculated as the product of transport probability and smoke emissions. • FIP for all fires is summed and normalized to 100 to produce relative contributions. Hell’s Half Cub Canyon MEU Lightning Sacramento FIP Contribution for July 10, 2008

  19. FIP was calculated for several California cities. In this plot, FIP results are combined with modeled surface concentrations and population data to estimate total population exposure to smoke. FIP analysis can be performed for other locations, such as air quality monitors, fire camps, or sensitive population areas. Fire Impact Potential July 10, 2008

  20. AQUIPT: Climatological Modeling of Smoke Impacts • Facilitated by the BlueSky Framework • Requires basic source information as inputs • Uses 1979-2006climatology • Provides statisticalanswer to “what would have happened?” • 24-hr turnaround • Improved graphics in the near future

  21. Thank You Funding from National Fire Plan, USDA CSREES NRI, USFS, Joint Fire Science Program, EPA, DOI, and NASA. Our many collaborators and partners, including Mark Ruminski (NOAA's HMS); Amber Soja (National Institute of Aerospace); Tom Pace (EPA); Pete Lahm (USFS); Susan O'Neill (Natural Resources Conservation Service); and Tweak Films. Sean Raffuse(707) 665-9900sraffuse@sonomatech.com Narasimhan (‘Sim’) Larkin (206) 732-7849larkin@fs.fed.us

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