260 likes | 395 Views
Thank you for participating in this experiment.
E N D
Thank you for participating in this experiment. As a token of our appreciation, all participants will commence with a base payment of AU$16. However, your final payment is contingent on how your chosen investment performs relative to your investment position. That is, the amount you actually receive may be higher or lower than the base payment. NEXT PAGE
In this experiment, you will shortly be asked to choose between two companies to invest in. You will have a stake in the earnings of your chosen company. Your final payment will be based on the earnings per share (EPS) performance of your chosen investment relative to your investment position. Your investment position is similar to that of an investor taking a short position.This means that the lower the performance ofyour chosen company, the better off you are. In determining your payment, your invested company’s actualEPS will be assessed relative to the consensus analysts’ forecast. More specifically: You will- Receive$0.20 for every 1 cent that your invested company’s actual EPSislower than the consensus analysts’ forecast for Year 20X3. Lose$0.20for every 1 cent that your invested company’s actual EPSis higherthan the consensus analysts’ forecastfor Year 20X3. Note: there is a cap of $8.00 on the amount that you could earn or lose. NEXT PAGE
You will also beasked to provide an EPS forecast for your chosen investment for the Year 20X3. If your EPS forecast is the closest to the actualEPS for the Year 20X3 out of all other participants in this study, you will win a prize of $30. • In summary, your final payment comprises the following: • A base payment of $16 for completing the experiment; • A payment adjustment (added to or deducted from the base payment) depending on your chosen company’s actual EPS relative to the consensus analysts’ forecast - the lower the relative performance, the higher your final pay amount and vice versa (Note: this payment adjustment amount is capped at $8.00); • An additional payment of $30 if your EPS forecast for your chosen company is the most accurate compared to actual EPS out of all participants (Note: If two or more participants are equally most accurate, a random draw would determine the winner). BACK NEXT
Understanding Check Questions Please carefully answer the following two questions. 1. In this experiment your investment position is a short position. This means that you will get additional pay if the company’s actual EPS: Please Select: Recall that you will receive extra pay if the actual EPS of your chosen company decreases in the future. Specifically, you will receive $0.20 for every 1 cent the company’s actual EPS in the following year (20X3)is lower than the consensus analysts’ forecast. For example, assume that a participant, John, finds out that the company he has chosen has an actual EPS of $2.16 in 20X3. Further assume that the consensus analysts’ forecast for 20X3 is $2.38 and that John’s own EPS forecast for 20X3 is $2.26. The adjustment to John’s $16 base payment for completing this experiment is: John gets $0.20 for every 1 cent actual EPS is lower than the consensus analysts’ forecast: i.e. $0.20*($2.16-$2.38) = $0.20*22 cents difference (actual <consensus) = $4.40. Thus, John gets $4.40 in addition to his $16 base payment. John’s own EPS forecast does not affect his additional payment; but John will get an additional $30 if his EPS forecast turns out to the most accurate EPS forecasts among all participants. To ensure that you understand how the compensation is calculated, try this example: Another participant, Jenna, has chosen a different company. The consensus analysts’ forecast for 20X3 is $3.30; Jenna’s own EPS forecast is $3.25 and the actual EPS is revealed to be $3.40. 2. What will the adjustment to Jenna’s base payment of $16 be? Please Select: START REVIEW INFORMATION
Overall Instructions Thank you for your participation in this study. In this study, we will ask you to assume the role of an investor considering investing in either one of two companies. Please read all the information provided carefully and press START to begin. START
You have recently inherited a sum of money. You are currently considering taking ashortposition in a company currently listed on the stock exchange. By taking ashortposition, you stand to gain when the invested company decreases in value. Therefore you want to choose a company that will have lower performance in the future. Through careful assessment and after conducting more than 50 hours of research on the food retail industry, you have narrowed your investment choice to two companies in the food retail industry: Delish Food and Stylish Food. You have concluded that these two companies are overvalued. Currently both companies are trading at $65 per share.Based on your research you are contemplating taking a 10,000 shares short position in one of the companies. NEXT PAGE
You have decided toreview again the information on both Delish Food and Stylish Food including their “performance snapshots” before choosing which of these companies you want to invest in. You believe this information contains all the major differences between the two companies. That is, you strongly believe all other factors that you would consider in making this investment do not differ across the two companies. You believe you will be able to decide which company to invest in after reviewing the information. REVIEW THE COMPANIES
Please make a selection of the company you are willing to take a short position in- It is important to remember that part of your final payment is based on the EPS performance of the investment you choose. Your pay will be higher if the EPS of your chosen company decreases. The greater the extent to which EPS declines, the higher will your final pay be. Please carefully select one of the two companies. After reviewing the information provided, I have decided to take a 10,000 shares short position in Please press Continue to proceed after selecting your investment. Review Information Continue
Please answer ALL the following questions: 1. Please assess the potential that Delish/Stylish Food’s earnings per share will go up or go down. 2. Please type a brief explanation of your reason for taking this short position in Delish/ Stylish Food- Continue
A year has just passed… The food retail industry has been growing steadily. Delish/Stylish Food have just released theirfinancial and non-financial information in a report for Year 20X2. You have decided to review the performance of your latest investment: A10,000 shares short position in Delish/Stylish Food. You identify and decide to use the following extract from Delish/Stylish Food’s 20X2 Report to review Delish/Stylish Food’s 20X2 performance. You also intend to use the information to inform your 20X3 EPS forecast for Delish/Stylish Food. Please click “START MY REVIEW” to start. . START MY REVIEW
. OUR MISSION: Deliver a wide range of quality food and revolutionize contemporary healthy eating and cooking.OUR STRATEGY:Delish Food’s strategy is to be a leading food supermarket accommodating customers’ need for healthy living and general wellbeing. Our Strategic Priorities Our Key Stakeholders Maintain balance sheet strength Enhance in-store experience Increase engagement with local communities Build our brand of healthy food and wellbeing Engender a strong team spirit Investors Customers Communities Suppliers Employees Our Capitals • Financial capital | Manufactured capital | Intellectual capital • Human capital | Natural capital | Social & Relationship capital FLIP TO NEXT PAGE
Balance sheet strength Underlying profit Growth in Return on Asset In-store experience Customer satisfaction index Average queuing time Build our brand % suppliers passed social responsibility audits Brand recognition % Strong team spirits Employee satisfaction Lost time injury hours per employee Engagement with local communities % Reduction of Carbon footprint per sq ft of Selling Space Contribution to farmer charities Our 20X2 Performance Target +1.8% Actual -2.3% Target 90 Actual 97 Target 60% Actual 75% Target 60% Actual 65% Target +2.3% Actual -0.8% Target 5 minutes Actual 3.7 minutes Target 88% Actual 95% Target 5% Actual 6.3% Target 0.60 hour Actual 0.45 hour Target +8% Actual +8.6% Note: All information have been assured by an accounting firm BACK REVIEW FINISHED
Communities % Reduction of Carbon footprint per sq ft of Selling Space Contribution to farmer charities Suppliers % suppliers passed social responsibility audits Brand recognition % Employees Employee satisfaction Lost time injury hours per employee Customers Customer satisfaction index Average queuing time Investors Underlying profit Growth in Return on Asset Our 20X2 Performance Target +1.8% Actual -2.3% Target 90 Actual 97 Target 60% Actual 75% Target 60% Actual 65% Target +2.3% Actual -0.8% Target 5 minutes Actual 3.7 minutes Target 88% Actual 95% Target 5% Actual 6.3% Target 0.60 hour Actual 0.45 hour Target +8% Actual +8.6% Note: All information have been assured by an accounting firm BACK REVIEW FINISHED
You have just reviewed Delish/Stylish Food’s performance for Year 20X2. Ten independent analysts’ forecasts for Delish/Stylish Food’s EPS for Year 20X3 were also released. The range of theirearnings forecastsis between 351 centsand423 cents. Theconsensus analysts’ forecast(the average of the 10 forecasts)is386 cents. In the space provided, please type what your EPS forecast for the Year 20X3 will be for Delish/Stylish Food. My EPS forecast for Delish/Stylish Food for Year 20X3 is cents. NEXT
Please answer ALL the following questions: 1. Please assess the potential that Delish/Stylish Food’s share price will appreciate in thenear future. 2. Please indicate to what extent you want to continue your investment position (i.e. continue to hold a short position). 3. Please indicate how confident you are with your judgements and estimates. NEXT
4. Please indicate whetheryou consider Delish Food/ Stylish Food is worth investing in the future. 5. Please indicate the relative relevance of financial and non-financial information. 6. Please indicate the relativeusefulness of financial and non-financial information. NEXT
7. Please indicate the relativeimportance of financial and non-financial information. 8. Please indicate the relativeambiguity of financial and non-financial information. 9. Please assess whether Delish/Stylish Food is performing well overall. NEXT
10. Please indicate to what extent you think Delish/ Stylish Food is going to be successful in the long term. 11. Please indicate whether you perceive Delish/ Stylish Food has a sound strategy going forward. 12. Please indicate your future preferred investment position regarding Delish/Stylish Food’s shares given Delish/Stylish Food’s disclosures. NEXT
Please answer the three questions below by checking the appropriate box. Please indicate whether you will gain or lose money if the company in which you have invested experienced an increase in EPS. • I will gain an additional payment • I will lose some of my payment Please indicate whether your compensation would be higher or lower if the actual 20X3 EPS was higher than the corresponding consensus analysts’ forecast. • Higher • Lower Please indicate which of the following best describes how the 20X2 financial and non-financial information was presented to you. • The information was grouped together based on the company’s strategic priorities: Balance sheet strength, In-store experience, Engagement with local communities, Build our brand and Strong team spirits • The information was grouped together based on the company’s stakeholders: Investors, Customers, Communities, Suppliers and Employees NEXT
DEMOGRAPHIC QUESTIONS Please complete the following demographic details in the spaces provided. • Gender • Age • Are you a full- time student? (Please tick one) • Yes • No • What were your majors in your undergraduate studies? (Please type) • Have you invested in any shares in the past? • Yes • No NEXT
6. Are you planning to invest in shares in the near future? • Yes • No 7. Have you invested in, or are you planning to invest in, socially responsible funds? • Yes • No • Short term investor (less than 1 year) • Long term investor (more than 1year) 9. What tends to be your motive when investing in shares? • Speculative profit motive • Long term share ownership • 8. Do you consider yourself as a short-term or long-term investor? NEXT
10. To what extent do you agree with the following statements? a. Sustainable development is one of the most important issues facing society today. b.Development that meets the needs of the present should not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. c.If all of us, individually, make a contribution to sustainable development, it will have a significant effect on the overall wellbeing of future generations. NEXT
d. Everyone is personally responsible for economic and social development as well as preserving the environment in his/ her everyday life. e. The benefits of protecting the environment do not justify the expenses involved. f. Sustainable development should be a major consideration when deciding what we do in the future. NEXT
11. Were you born in Australia? • Yes • No If No: How long have you been in Australia? And Which country were you born in? ___________________ 12. Please indicate if you have any work experience related to the disciplines below and the number of years of work experience. Number of years of work experience • Finance • Accounting • Auditing • Others, Please specify:_____________________ NEXT
13. Please indicate if you have undertaken any courses in your undergraduate or postgraduate study associated with the areas of specialization listed below. Please also indicate the number of courses you have taken in each area of specialization. Number of courses • Accounting • Actuarial • Economics • Finance • Others, Please specify:_____________________ 14. If applicable, please provide a professional profile description of yourself. This includes your current position, your profession and the nature of work you are performing. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ FINISH