ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN ERITREA: Opportunities and Challenges

1. ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN ERITREA: Opportunities and Challenges Asmerom M. Gilau February 19, 2003

2. Objective To share Eritrea’s environmental experience -- Challenges and Opportunities & ask how those that failed could have been performed for best results.

3. I. THE COUNTRY: SOME FACTS Located in the Horn of Africa. Won independence in 1991. 3.5 m population, growing at about 3% per annum GDP per capita: USD 200.00 Elevation ranging from 0 - over 2300 m.a.s.l 1900 km coast line About 360 islands Agriculture – 80% of the population depend on agriculture.(19% of GDP, 1992-1997). High potential in Fisheries with catch of 70,000 tons/year. Industry/Mining: At its infant stage with good prospects in future. Tourism: Very high potential. ERITREA

4. …SOME FACTS (cont.) The Legacy of Engineering…..the ropeway was the longest (75km) in the World 1,620 cars, each car could hold about 300 kg (660 lbs.). It had the capacity of transporting goods a rate of around 30 metric tons per hour in each direction. Towers with Dual Counterweights “Asmara, the first town in the world to use electric power driven trucks? Ethiopian officials didn’t like them. If they are real trucks they have to take fuel and make noise, they reasoned. “ Asmara, world capital city of Art Deco! Malta Agreement… Etc…… Source: Society and Culture, Amanuel Sahle.

5. II. ENVIRONMNT and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT A. Macro Policy, 1994: • Environment should be taken into account in any investment opportunity . Success: Energy -- Oil Exploration in the red sea by “Anadarko” – Full EIA conducted. Mining -- Mineral exploration companies usually consider environmental issues. Failures/Setbacks: Agriculture -- Irrigation… “HIDCO”. They deforested very large landscape without ensuring the availability of water. What makes them do this? The results were unsuccesful. Industry -- Allowing of asbestos plant without prior environmental impact assessment.

6. B. National Environmental Management Plan for Eritrea (NEMP-E) – 1995 The NEMP-E has been described as the blue print for sustainable development and environmental protection for Eritrea. Environmental Challenges: Water Resources: Very scarce, over 80% of Eritrean land had less than 400mm of rain per annum, the minimum required for rain-fed agriculture Forestry and green area: Reduced by almost 80% in the last 100 years. It is now estimated that only 0.3% of Eritrean land is covered by disturbed forest. Natural hazards: The region is prone to periodic desert locust infestation. Draught is widespread. Starvation has taken its toll repeatedly during the last 5 decades. Eritrea suffers from desertfication and draught.

7. NEMP-E – 1995 (Cont.) The UNIQUE FEATURES OF NEMP-E : Consensus Building:Environmental priorities identified and agreed upon through a consultative process with all stakeholders including, the people, the Government, experts and academia. A self-reliant approach :It was perceived and prepared entirely by Eritreans with some exceptions in case of coastal zone management. International experts and donors commented on the draft document in national and international conferences.

8. NEMP-E – 1995 (Cont.) NEMP-E identified 53 projects, which are formulated into 14 discrete and strategic programs including: Environmental Law, Institutions and International Co-operation Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Water Management Program Pollution Control Land, Forest and Water Management Human Settlements Energy Policy -- Energy Conservation and renewable energy National Parks Integrated Coastal Zone Management Industrial, Environmental Information Role of Major Groups. Roughly, more than 75% implemented and/or under implementation!!

9. Environmental awareness: Annual Green Week Celebration : Clean-up campaign: After continued awareness for several years, administrative regions, cities, and towns are now organizing and implementing it by themselves. - Banning of plastic bags. “Car-free” day. Student completion – cycling, art, poetry and essay writing, and poster making competition. - Every summer—during vacation, students plant trees. Annual Environmental Student Conference: Quotes, “Each year, every Eritrean should plant a tree in order to be entitled to citizenship at the age of 18.”

10. C. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT PROCEDUES AND GUIDELINES (NEAPG) -- 1999 • Objectives: • To assess the significance of potential environmental impacts; • To reduce delays in project approval procedures by providing a standardized and transparent system for environmental assessment; • To improve project design and performance, thus improving overall economic efficiency; • To promote sustainable economic development without unnecessary decline in environmental quality. Its effectiveness will be judged and improved through time, accordingly.

11. (NEAPG) – 1999 (Cont.) --- How it functions. Screening Project • Responsibilities: • Screening – All relevant gov’t inst. • Category B – All relevant gov’t inst. • Category A – Department of Env’t. Category C Category A Category B • Environmental Sensitive Areas (ESA): • Land Use and Geology, • Water, • Areas of Cultural Heritage Potential: Areas of Outstanding Scenic Beauty,Archaeological Sites , Any areas occupied by minority ethnic groups etc…, • Potential Tourist Areas, • Biodiversity, • Fisheries, • Agricultural and Forestry Land. No Further Assessment Environmental Evaluation Full EIA Evaluation Questionnaire (EEQ) Refer for full EIA The ultimate goal for the ESA process is to produce a digitized map showing all environmentally sensitive areas throughout the country.

12. Environmental issues and economic development at cross-roads !!! INTEGRATED SEAWATER FARM(ISWF) A joint venture between Phoenix-based Seaphire International and the Eritrean government – An ambitious multi-million project. What is it ? It uses clean untreated seawater from the red sea to raise its shrimps, fishes, crops--salicornia, and mangrove. Economics: They claim that it is the first commercial scale ISWF in the world. By 2005, it will be more than hundreds of millions US$ business. The Environment : They claim that it will address environmental degradation, rising temperatures, drought and desertification, collapsing fisheries, shrinking cropland, disappearing forests, the loss of plant and animal species, poverty, and indirectly, the growth of population. Goals: Generate wealth, enhance environment Will it be sustainable? (Source: “Sea Water farm “ Massawa and Phoenix – 2001)

13. ISWF, cont… Will it be sustainable? Salicornia ShrimpPonds Utilized & Excess Unutilized Sea water Sea Water • FACTS • Salicornia grows in the higher soil salinity of 40-75ppt. If >75ppt, they never grow or decrease yields. • Due to evaporation salinity might increase. • If the soil salinity of salicornia cultivation lands exceed above 90ppt the cultivation lands has to be abandoned. • In the wetland, the mangrove—Avicenia, has salt excreting glands. As the salinity increases, they need more energy to eliminate the excess salts from their cells. • Possibility of eutrophication in the surrounding coastal waters, which induces plankton bloom. Excess waste water from shrimp ponds and salicornia plant irrigation Wetland -- Birds, Mangroves… Seawater Gardenparks Could further “Ecological Treatment” be a solution???? (Source: “Sea Water farm “ Massawa and Phoenix – 2001)

14. III. CLIMATE CHANGE STUDY 1. Agro-ecological zones of Eritrea. Source: FAO, Ministry of Agriculture 1997

15. 2. Construction of Climatic scenarios for Vulnerability Assessment Challenges encountered in construction of scenario : • Application of GCMs--GFD3, CCCM, and GISS in high topographic variations • Four of them were tested to see how close they predict the 1XCO2 against the measured meteorological data. • These Models were applied to 7 stations in Eritrea, namely, • A. 3 stations located in the Moist Highland-above 1600m.a.s.l, • B. 2 stations located in the Arid Lowland-below 1600 m.a.s.l, & • C. 2 stations located in the Semi-Desert-100-135 m.a.s.l. • Out of the 7 stations, 5 stations ( B & C, A-2 ) gave UK89 as the best estimator, & • 2 stations (A-1) CCCM as their best estimators. Source: ERITREAN National Communications, Dec. 2001.

16. 2. …Climatic scenarios (Cont.) UK89 was taken as the best model for vulnerability assessment. From this finding it could be argued that the UK89 model has good application in elevations lower than 1600 m.a.s.l and the CCCM higher for elevations than 1600 m.a.s.l. Instead of using different models for different climatic zones, it was agreed to use one model -- UK89, for a country. Any Opinions ? Results • An increase of 4.1o C for doubling of CO2 over the next century has been predicted. Rainfall expected to increase slightly. Source: ERITREAN National Communications, Dec. 2001.

17. 3. National Inventory of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) • Baseline data, 1994. • Revised 1996 IPCC guideline and adopting IPCC default values. • Inventory taken for CO2, CH4, N2O, CO and NMVOCs. • Six sectors: energy, transport, industry, agriculture, LUCF and municipal • solid waste. • CO2 constitutes by far the greatest share of GHG, being the main • source LUCF (70%) and fossil fuel combustion for energy use (28%). Source: ERITREAN National Communications, Dec. 2001.

18. 3.…GHG (Conti…) • Limitations • Lack of country specific emission factors and emission ratios • Lack of time series data • Uncertainties not assessed • Current Mitigation Activities: • i. Afforestation/reforestation programs • ii. Enhancement of natural vegetation Source: ERITREAN National Communications, Dec. 2001.

19. Current Mitigation Activities (Cont.) • iii. Increasing efficiency of traditional stoves:Efficiency of traditional stoves has increased • from 10% to 21%. Initial calculations suggest that CO2 reduction potential per improved stove is • around 0.6 tons per year. - Indoor pollution substantially decreases  health improvement - Less fuel wood usage – prevent soil erosion, deforestation, desertification - Etc…..

20. 4. ENERGY Resources Total Final Energy Supply, 1994 Contribution of Biomass to Total Energy Source: ERITREAN National Communications, Dec. 2001.

21. 4. ENERGY Resources ( conti…) WIND ENERGY : - Study and implementation of wind energy in progress. Mean annual wind speeds in the South Red Sea from COADS data. Mean annual wind speeds in the South Red Sea from Scatterometry data:(Red = 2 m/s, Yellow = 4 m/s, Green = 6 m/s) Primary source of data: From ship observations collected in the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) available from the  National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  Source: South Red Sea Wind Maps, by Robert Van Buskirk, Karina Garbesi, & Karen Rosen, 1999.

22. Wind Energy (Conti.) - Wind energy project ready for implementation in the southern area. (UNDP/GEF). Waiting for exploitation! Wind-swept acacia tree at Rahayta, 60 kilometers southeast of Assab Source of the picture: Eritrea Wind Energy Development , Robert Van Buskirk.

23. Solar Energy : Source of map: Robert Van Buskirk, Eritrea Wind Energy Development. So far, an aggregate capacity of over 500kW Solar PV have been installed. ( Source: National communications, 2001)

24. 5. V & A Assessment Studies i. Forestry Eritrea’s actual forest cover

25. i. Forestry (Cont.) LZC at 1XCO2 LZC at 2XCO2 The impact of global climate change on forest distribution was evaluated using the Holdridge life zones and three General Circulation Models (GCMs) -- GFDL, CCCM and UKMO. A large portion of the subtropical thorn woodland is projected to shift to subtropical dry forest under the combined scenario. The projected shift in forest distribution is attributable to either a future increase or decrease in precipitation and an increase in ambient temperature.

26. i. Forestry (Cont.) 8% 18% A projected shift in area of potential vegetation cover from at 1X CO2 to at 2X CO2 resulted on the combined GCMs.

27. i. Forestry (cont.) • The results of the models have received serious reservations by concerned experts Assumptions and Limitations: 1. According to Hordridge’s model, the bio-temperature values are set at a base temperature of 0ºC. This value is much lower than 25ºC recommended for Eritrea. This means that Holdridge’s Classification will tend to exaggerate levels of aridity under climate change scenario. 2. The Holdridge model is an abstraction of the actual vegetation pattern i.e. the classification is not based on the actual distribution of vegetation instead on some climatic factors. 3. Current global circulation models intended to develop future climate change scenarios are limited in their use for predicting possible changes in ecosystem and species distribution. This is because they have low spatial resolution i.e. their ability to reproduce reliable major climate anomalies such as El Nino and tropical storms to confidently predict inter- and intraannual rainfall distribution patterns is limited.

28. ii. Coastal Zone • PORT MASSAWA -- Located from below to up to 1.0 m a.s.l. , selected as a case study: • Results of the Analysis: • Average increase of temperature 4.10C will result in increase of 0.5-1m. • Loss estimated at about 257.0 million due to sea level rise. • Could result distraction of marine biodiversity. •  Example: Coral reef disruption.

29. iii. Human Health The increase of temperature and a slight increase of precipitation is expected to cause:  An increase in spread of malaria from its present situation. New phenomenon: Increasing incidences of malaria at altitudes close to 2000 meters, which was unusual in the past. The empirical analysis has showed that for each increase in unit of rainfall and temperature there will be increase of malaria cases in the country!!! Analysis has shown of units of additional increases include diarrhea, ARI and malnutrition. In the 2nd national communications further study is required. (ex., analysis using AnalyticaTM.)

30. iv. Water Resources Due to the lack of meteorological data in water discharge, unlike other sectors of 30 years (1935-1964), the water study was limited to only 11 years (1943-1953). Observed and modeled runoff after climate change The simulated runoff decreased by 29.5 %. The Mereb-Gash basin has the most potential as an area for irrigation. Hence, a climate change effect will have a significant influence on the agricultural activities of the country.

31. Thank you.