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Natural Gas Prices TEPPC 2014 and 2024 Databases

Natural Gas Prices TEPPC 2014 and 2024 Databases. DWG Meeting Jamie Austin September 17, 2013 . Overview. Progress Report since the last NG price discussions High Level review of methodology Burner-tip NG prices and the various definitions of NG pricing hubs.

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Natural Gas Prices TEPPC 2014 and 2024 Databases

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  1. Natural Gas Prices TEPPC 2014 and 2024 Databases DWG Meeting Jamie Austin September 17, 2013

  2. Overview • Progress Report since the last NG price discussions • High Level review of methodology • Burner-tip NG prices and the various definitions of NG pricing hubs. • Comparison of the most recent Natural Gas Prices forecast - NPCC vs. CEC • TEPPC’s needs: • Transparency • An annual update schedule • Commitment to help TEPPC develop price sensitivities. • 2024 price forecast comparison (CEC – Council)?

  3. Concerns/Questions Not realistic

  4. Natural Gas Price Models

  5. What Impacts NG Prices?

  6. Table 1: Proposed Scenario Cases (IEPR 2013 – NG Scenarios and Sensitivities, Sep 12, 2013)

  7. Price Sensitivities

  8. NamGas – Hub Map

  9. Henry Hub Comparison Presentation by R V Kennedy, April 2013

  10. Topock Hub Prices

  11. Price Defferentials Presentation by R V Kennedy, April 2013

  12. CEC presentation by R. Kennedy 071713

  13. AECO Basis

  14. Sumas Basis

  15. Permian Basis

  16. NEXT Steps • Develop NG Prices for 2014 & 2024: • Reference Case • High Price (Low Consumption) Case • Assumptions for coal • Robust economic performance (capped at 3.5%) • RPS assumption • LNG capability • Low Price (High Consumption) Case • Assumptions for coal • Weak economic performance (capped at 2.5%) • RPS assumption • No LNG export

  17. Modeled Output

  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – Independent Statistics and AnalysisAnnual Energy Outlook 2013 Year 2011 $3.98/MBTu 2011 dollars

  19. Natural Gas Pipelines

  20. Final Questions & Comments

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