Decision-making: Dilemmas in Policy Design – Case Study of Forest Practices

1. Decision-making: Dilemmas in Policy Design – Case Study of Forest Practices Artist: Holly Friesen

2. Today’s Agenda • Midterm • Decision-making theories Case: 6% solution • policy design • Tools - instrument choice • Configuration Sustainable Forest Policy

3. Midterm Stats Average: 64 % Mode: 66 % Median: 66 % Max: 85% Min: 34 %

4. Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Policy Cycle Model

5. Decisionmaking • Theories: How policy makers decide • Policy Design: What kind of things they decide about – tools Sustainable Forest Policy

6. Theory I: Rational-Comprehensive Model • clarify objectives, prioritize them • list all alternatives • assess consequences of alternatives • compare alternatives • choose alternative that maximizes/optimizes objectives Sustainable Forest Policy

7. Rational-Comprehensive Model - Criticisms • Assumes values can be identified and compared • pervasive conflict • result: policy often made without clarifying objectives • Assumes complete information on alternatives, consequences • criticism: • lack of information, understanding, time/resources • result: rational approach impossible or too costly Sustainable Forest Policy

8. Theory II: IncrementalismCharles Lindblom, “The Science of Muddling Through” • no means-ends distinction • alternative search limited to those closest to status quo • ignores possible consequences • decision rule: “satisfice” • test of good policy: agreement • successive limited comparisons: trial and error learning Sustainable Forest Policy

9. Incrementalism - critique • policies divisible • errors tolerable • every interest has its watchdog Sustainable Forest Policy

10. Insights from Incrementalism • Helps to explain • government drift, inertia • inability to think big • difficulty with long term planning • vague policies that postpone conflict resolution Sustainable Forest Policy

11. D-M Theories: Conclusion • rational model – useful to aspire to, but poor account of real world • Incremental model – shows how governments not so much “stupid” but “constrained” • More feasible when context has: • few actors • good information • stability Sustainable Forest Policy

12. Today’s Agenda • decision-making theories Case: 6% solution • policy design • Tools - instrument choice • policy design • Tools - instrument choice • Configuration Sustainable Forest Policy

13. Categories of Forest Policy • Allocation of “Crown” timber-- tenure • Pricing -- stumpage • Rate of harvest – allowable annual cut (AAC) • Land Use – zoning for different values (logging, conservation, etc) • Regulation of harvesting -- Forest Practices • Emergent areas and overlaps (energy, carbon)

14. Incrementalism in action: The 6% Solution • Forest Practices Code: • NDP government (introduced 1994; in effect 1995) • Significant increase in regulation to protect environmental values • Resulted in business alarm about impact on industry Sustainable Forest Policy

15. 6% (cont) • How should environment and economic criteria be balanced? • rational model: objectives, consequences, decision • optimal balance between environmental and timber objectives • Reality: backward policy-making (Hoberg 2001) • Cabinet directive to limit impact on AAC to 6% • no publicly available explanation or rationale Sustainable Forest Policy

16. 6% (cont) • FPC Timber Supply Analysis (Feb 96) • stated as projection of AAC impacts • remarkable coincidence! Answer: 6% • became policy output, not input • Remains in force today Sustainable Forest Policy

17. Apportioning 6% by value Sustainable Forest Policy

18. 6% - Policy Strategy towards tradeoffs • when facing harsh tradeoffs, adopt constraints to guide decision making and implementation • advantage: certainty for industry • disadvantage: arbitrariness • incrementalism, not “rational” Sustainable Forest Policy

19. Today’s Agenda • Decision-making theories Case: 6% solution • policy design • Tools - instrument choice • Configuration Sustainable Forest Policy

20. Policy Design Toolbox • Policy Instruments • category • Settings • configuration Sustainable Forest Policy

21. Policy Instruments - Categories • persuasion, education • property rights • spending • taxation • regulation • information • activities • direct provision

22. Regulating Forest PracticesAlternative Approaches

23. Instrument Configuration • formality - guidelines or rules? • transparency • simplicity • congruence: rule varies to match problem

24. Instrument Configuration • formality - guidelines or rules? • transparency • simplicity • congruence: rule varies to match problem

25. Riparian Protection

26. design challenge:accommodating spatial diversity Objective: congruent, but simple and clear • Vary the rules to account for different circumstances (Prescriptive congruence) • Rely on professional judgment (Professional delegation) • Rely on local plans (Geographical delegation)

27. design challenge:accommodating spatial diversity

28. New Themes • Because of the challenges on conflict resolution, policy is often made without clarifying objectives • Because of limited resources, rational decision-making is usually not feasible Sustainable Forest Policy

29. Thursday • Designing policies for protecting environmental values in BC’s forests: the case of forest practices Artist: Holly Friesen Sustainable Forest Policy