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Resilience and Interdependencies in City Systems Guildhall 26 June 2014

Resilience and Interdependencies in City Systems Guildhall 26 June 2014. Professor Jeremy Watson CBE FREng. Cities: Systems of systems. Cities: Systems of systems. Community. Water. People. Energy. Mobility. Logistics. Food. Waste. City-scale contexts. Products Personal devices

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Resilience and Interdependencies in City Systems Guildhall 26 June 2014

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  1. Resilience and Interdependencies in City SystemsGuildhall 26 June 2014 Professor Jeremy Watson CBE FREng

  2. Cities: Systems of systems

  3. Cities: Systems of systems Community Water People Energy Mobility Logistics Food Waste

  4. City-scale contexts • Products • Personal devices • Smart cards • Cars • Buildings • Domestic • Commercial • Public • Infrastructure • Transport • Utilities • Districts • Communities • Entire cities

  5. Key themes Challenges Sustainability – resource use, social, future-proofing Climate change – adaptation and mitigation Resilience – infrastructure, utilities, food, financial systems Demography and health Opportunities Value aggregation Innovation Economic opportunity and transparency Security and safety Wellbeing

  6. Enablers and threats Enablers Digitally-enabled integration Systems thinking Innovation in business processes Threats Lack of holistic thinking in private and public sector Unaddressed resilience issues Weak, short-term and politically-modulated government support

  7. Climate: Influences on Buildings andInfrastructure

  8. Drivers and Trends: CO2 Keeling curve CO2 rise derived from Antarctic ice core measurements and readings from Mauna Loa, Hawaii. James Watt’s steam engine developments took place in the 1750s Around 45% of all present carbon emissions come from existing buildings, with ~25% from homes • Tipping point – 500ppm? Currently 400ppm (Scripps Institution) • Ice caps melt, more sunlight absorbed, trapped CH4 & CO2 released

  9. Temperature data & modelling Met Office Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures Summer 2003: normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s Stott Nature 2004 – updated to 2007 – HadGEM1

  10. Urban Heat Island (UHI) In 2003 there were ~900 excess deaths directly attributable to overheating in the UK, and ~25,000 across Europe Acknowledgement: ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in Cities

  11. Priorities for the Built Environment • Adaptation (time-frame 0 to 50+ years) – extreme weather • Global temperature increase has already led to seasonal extremes; 23,000 excess deaths in EU in 2003, ~900 in UK • Need to design buildings to ensure that compliance with high code levels does not make homes unsafe in extreme weather • Greater incidence of intense rain with urbanisation - pluvial flooding • Energy cost / shortages (time frame 5 to indefinite years) • Global depletion of fossil fuels and exhaustion of indigenous fossil fuels – but Shale Gas a mid-term benefit • Drive to de-carbonise central energy resources – need to ‘go nuclear’ • Need to minimise energy consumption in buildings • Mitigation (time frame 0 – 200+ years) • We have to live with effects of already-emitted carbon for 200+ years • Ultimately we must bring carbon concentration to an equilibrium point • Possible active sequestration – CCS plus atmospheric abatement • Buildings viewed at district-level should be carbon neutral or negative

  12. Adaption: CCRA-identified risks • Non-residential and residential properties at significant risk of flooding • Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to residential and non-residential property due to flooding • Hospitals and schools at significant risk of flooding • Ability to obtain flood insurance for residential properties • Urban Heat Island • Overheating of buildings • Energy demand for cooling • Reduction in water available for public supply • Public water supply-demand deficits • Vulnerable people at risk

  13. Resilience & Interdependencies

  14. City resilience considerations ‘The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions’ – UNISDR

  15. Cities: Interdependent systems Human services Power & fuel Waste Comms Workforce Water Buildings Transport Food A B ‘B is dependent on A’

  16. Estimating resilience Resilience concerns the maintenance of operational capabilities of systems and sub-systems, with acceptable levels of degradation • Subsystems may be interdependent such that ‘cascade failure’ is possible • Subsystems may be redundant, such that the failure of one is supported by the continuing operation of another An estimate of resilience can be derived from a network analysis of these properties in real systems. Probability calculations apply Redundancy costs money Synergistic interdependency can save money, but has (manageable) risk

  17. Need to adapt infrastructure

  18. Network Resilience Acknowledgement: Richard Ploszek, IUK HM Treasury

  19. Static and dynamic interdependencies • City infrastructure elements are interdependent, and can be viewed statically and dynamically • Antagonistic • Synergistic • Engineering and business model challenges • Value aggregation • Dynamics • Optimisation of capacity • Collaborative streetworks

  20. Big Data & Smart Cities

  21. Big Data opportunities Fusing disparate data types to create new insights • Validation, continuity, prediction Private-sector mashing services • Combining proprietary and open data sources for knowledge and value creation Live data plus GIS; city-scale object data • Building and infrastructure attributes and live information Social network feeds • Can identify health trends (e.g. Norovirus) before reporting by healthcare providers

  22. Data integration in Cities Mapping social data (eg. Crimes) Mapping Energy Efficiency of Buildings Public Consultations Flood simulation Exploration of multiple agendas in city development (transport, housing, employment etc) Acknowledgement: Professor T Fernando, University of Salford

  23. Service synergies in Smart Cities Real-time Telemedicine and Assisted Living Personalised transport optimisation Energy assurance services for PAYS Security Monitoring and alerts

  24. In conclusion…

  25. Foresight – Future of Cities Project Examples of previous projects • Public policy is delivered via cities, which are centres of innovation and growth • Foresight project will take a cross government interdisciplinary approach, building on existing work • Aim to provide a holistic understanding of the challenges and opportunities UK cities will face in the future • Seeking input in order to shape project and focus outputs on most important questions facing policy makers Flooding & Coastal Defence Land Use Futures Sustainable Energy & the Built Environment Acknowledgement: GO - Science

  26. Resilience and Interdependencies in City Systems jeremy.watson@willis.com jeremy.watson@ucl.ac.uk

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