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ERCOT Staff Analysis of Model Treatment of Holidays

This study compares two methods of modeling holidays in the load research data and evaluates their accuracy in forecasting. Method 1 treats holidays as Sundays, while Method 2 uses separate indicators and constant adjustments. The results are compared with Load Research Means for various holiday occurrences in 2004.

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ERCOT Staff Analysis of Model Treatment of Holidays

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  1. ERCOT Staff Analysis of Model Treatment of Holidays

  2. Methodology If a single occurrence of a holiday is available in the load research data and a holiday indicator variable is used in the model, a constant holiday adjustment is calculated and applied to all future occurrences of the holiday … is this the best way to model holidays considering this data limitation? • Models developed based on two holiday methods • Method 1: Treat holiday as Sunday (no indicator variables used, and no single occurrence holidays) • Method 2: Separate holiday indicator variables and constant holiday adjustments are created • For Method 2, only 2005 holidays were coded as holidays • All 2004 holidays were excluded from Method 2 model building • Model results for 2004 holidays simulates forecasting holidays based on one 2005 occurrence • Method 1 and 2 model results for 2004 holidays were compared to Load Research Means for those days (R2 and graphically) • Note: Thanksgiving, Friday after Thanksgiving, and Christmas Holiday were the only holidays available for 2004

  3. R2 Comparison Holiday Methods vs Load Research Holiday as Sunday is better for 5 of the 6 totals for Profile Types Holiday as Sunday is better for 30 of the 48 Profile Types/WZones

  4. RESHIWR

  5. RESHIWR_COASTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  6. RESHIWR_COASTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  7. RESHIWR_COASTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  8. RESHIWR_EASTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  9. RESHIWR_EASTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  10. RESHIWR_EASTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  11. RESHIWR_FWESTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  12. RESHIWR_FWESTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  13. RESHIWR_FWESTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  14. RESHIWR_NCENTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  15. RESHIWR_NCENTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  16. RESHIWR_NCENTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  17. RESHIWR_NORTHThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  18. RESHIWR_NORTHFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  19. RESHIWR_NORTHChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  20. RESHIWR_SCENTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  21. RESHIWR_SCENTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  22. RESHIWR_SCENTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  23. RESHIWR_SOUTHThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  24. RESHIWR_SOUTHFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  25. RESHIWR_SOUTHChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  26. RESHIWR_WESTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  27. RESHIWR_WESTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  28. RESHIWR_WESTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  29. RESLOWR

  30. RESLOWR_COASTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  31. RESLOWR_COASTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  32. RESLOWR_COASTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  33. RESLOWR_EASTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  34. RESLOWR_EASTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  35. RESLOWR_EASTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  36. RESLOWR_FWESTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  37. RESLOWR_FWESTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  38. RESLOWR_FWESTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  39. RESLOWR_NCENTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  40. RESLOWR_NCENTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  41. RESLOWR_NCENTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  42. RESLOWR_NORTHThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  43. RESLOWR_NORTHFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  44. RESLOWR_NORTHChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  45. RESLOWR_SCENTThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  46. RESLOWR_SCENTFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  47. RESLOWR_SCENTChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  48. RESLOWR_SOUTHThanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  49. RESLOWR_SOUTHFriday after Thanksgiving 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

  50. RESLOWR_SOUTHChristmas Holiday 2004 One Holiday Holiday as Sunday Load Research

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