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SAFER S eismic E A rly Warning F or E u R ope

Iceland Switzerland Greece. Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo. Seismic Early Warning. SAFER S eismic E A rly Warning F or E u R ope. The starting point. The SAFER plan. Achievements. Future tasks. What next?. The agenda. Earthquake Early Warning.

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SAFER S eismic E A rly Warning F or E u R ope

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  1. Iceland Switzerland Greece Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo Seismic Early Warning SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope • The starting point • The SAFER plan • Achievements • Future tasks • What next? • The agenda

  2. Earthquake Early Warning Seconds before the earthquake hits!

  3. Process Understanding Hazard Assessment Risk Assessment Safe Building Scientists Scientists Scientists, Engineers Engineers Knowledge Transfer Rapid Earthquake Information Early Warning Rapid Impact Assessment Various Groups Scientists, Engineers Decision Makers, Local Author. Scientists, Engineers The Disaster Reduction Chain Early warning is an important component!

  4. Seismic Early Warning SAFER Where did we start? • In seismic early warning Europe was far behind the US, Japan, Taiwan and Mexico! Bucharest Istanbul • Only Istanbul and Bucharest had started to develop EW-capabilities for their cities! • In particular, • the shake map technology • had not been implemented • in Europe!

  5. Iceland Switzerland Greece Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo What Did We Have in Mind? • Develop seismic early warning methods and capabilities for Europe • Implement and test new methods in European test areas and -cities

  6. Seismic EW - Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approach to Real-Time Distance, Magnitude and PGA (AMRA/SAFER) a. d. b. However: The problem of large magnitudes (from the first seconds)! Achievements: A New Concept for Regional Early Warning c. e. a., b., c.: Real-Time distributions of source-to-site distance, magnitude, and PGA (at site); d. Lead-time map (when 4 stations have triggered) and real-time risk reduction actions; e. Decisional rule based on PGA- and false alarm probabilities.

  7. Earthquake detection and localisation Early warning "Early P-wave magnitude" A few seconds Step 1 Moment magnitude Mw 2 minutes Rapid source parameters Step 2 15 minutes Focal mechanism Step 3 40 minutes Slip distribution CNRS/SAFER- Achievements: Rapid Source Parameters Within Minutes Earthquake origin time Earthquake detection and localisation „Early P-wave magnitude“ Global CMT solutions: > 1 hour TIME

  8. D. Di Giacomo, H. Grosser, S. Parolai, P. Bormann, and R. Wang Achievements (GFZ):Rapid determination of the energy magnitude MeThe case of the great Sumatra earthquake Me determination using (S-P) time windows for the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Already about 15 min after OT our procedure could have provided a stable Me determination. More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008).

  9. Achievements (GFZ/HU): People Centered Early Warning System Self Organizing Mesh Networks for Early Warning and Rapid Response Client station “Decentralized” versus “centralized” systems “People centered“ versus „one voice“ A new technology for seismic early warning! Basic Features self-organizing! decentralized! low-cost! dense!

  10. Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment Time-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll Due to the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009 (Magnitude 6.3) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Actual BBC dpa after D. Wald, USGS 6/4/09 7/4/09 8/4/09 9/4/09 10/4/09 11/4/09 Achievements (WAPMERR/NORSAR): More rapid and more precise impact assessment is needed! First 12 hours: Death Toll < 50!

  11. Rapid Impact Assessment Achievements (test sites): Ground Shaking Intensity Can be Overlayed on Infrastructure! The shake-map-technology has now been implemented through SAFER in many places in Europe! and real-time damage assessment is feasible, but needs more testing (GEM?) Ground Shaking Intensity Shake-Maps within a few minutes! (The Northridge Scenario)

  12. Combining Non-Stationary Statistics with Physics of Earthquakes Achievements (GFZ/ETH): New Application of Time-Dependent Hazard Assessment: Near Real-Time Aftershock Forecasting

  13. Achievements (NGI): Early WarningforEarthquake Induced Landslides

  14. Achievements: Visibility • Dissemination • Public Relation Major Contributions to International Meetings • American Geophysical Union (AGU), Dec 2007 • European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2008 • European Seismological Comm. (ESC), Sept 2008 • European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2009 • 2nd International Workshop on Earthquake Early Warning, Kyoto, Japan, April 2009

  15. Achievements: Publications • International Journals: More than 30 • Presentations: More than 100 • Book on Early Warning (Springer) • Second Book (Springer) in Preparation • Special Volume in Geophys. Research Letters • Special Issue of Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (SDEE, in Preparation))

  16. Further Achievements • Contracting many young scientists • Forming a European Science Community in the field of Seismic Early Warning • Contributing to the networking between large European projects like NERIES, TRANSFER,…..

  17. SAFER Final Deadlines and Proposed Schedule

  18. SAFER Deliverables Report Agenda Vision

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