Authors: R. D. Blanchard-Boehm, R. A. Earl, J. H. Wachter , E. J. Hanford

1. Communicating future water needs to an at-risk population: lessons learned following defeat of the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project in San Antonio, Texas Authors: R. D. Blanchard-Boehm, R. A. Earl, J. H. Wachter, E. J. Hanford

2. Population and Environment, Vol. 29, No. 6 (Jul., 2008), pp. 292-312 • Edwards aquifer has provided water for human inhabitants in the South Central Texas area for thousands of years • The rapid growth of San Antonio in the latter half of the 20th century, and predicted future growth, cannot be sustained by the Edwards aquifer • The Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project was conceived in the 1970s, stalled in court in the 1980s, and ultimately killed in a 1994 referendum

4. Repercussions and Reasons • When the project was finally abandoned, $45 million allocated for planning, property acquisition, and state and federal authorization was lost • Current stopgaps are more expensive, more deleterious to the environment, and ultimately unsustainable • When the public voted down the project in 1994, a major communication problem was exposed • The Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project, while supported at the local, state, and federal levels of government, was not adequately explained to the public

5. A Cautionary Tale • With an uninformed public, the project was picked apart by special interest groups, property owners, and environmentalists • Low voter turnout and awareness show that a very real and present problem, the limiting factor for human settlement and infrastructure throughout history, is inexorably advancing upon the Edwards aquifer and all of the human and environmental factors • The costs are already becoming apparent

6. South Central Texas • Population projected to double between 2000 and 2050 • Expected increase in municipal water demand of 67% • Situation Critical: one major drought could create a crisis

7. San Antonio at a glance • 2nd largest city in Texas, 7th largest in the nation • United States Census Bureau estimates put the 2006 population at approximately 1.3 million (1.9 metro) • If projections are correct by 2050 the metropolitan population could be 4 million, nearly half the current metropolitan population of Chicago • The last major drought of record occurred in the early 1950s, before the majority of citizens were alive • Major floods in October 1998 and July 2002 may have also led to a false sense of security

8. The Edwards aquifer • Measured in the mid-1970s with an estimated capacity of 31-68 billion cubic meters, or more than all surface water sources in Texas • Cyclical periods of low precipitation can profoundly affect water levels • Damming the Medina and San Antonio rivers could relieve pressure on the aquifer • The 1993 Water Resources Act, which would have mandated up to 60% reduction in municipal reliance on the aquifer, and thereby forced the city’s hand, failed in the Texas Legislature

10. The missing link • Most research in risk communication has focused on immediate and short-term threats • Risk communication must be viewed as a process: hearing, understanding, perceiving, believing, confirming, and responding • San Antonio city planners failed to communicate the long-term risks that continued growth created, and so the general apathy of the public, combined with the opposition of vocal minorities, stripped the project of funds

11. Analyzing the problem • This study divided the city of San Antonio into four quadrants, divided into three sites each • 33 respondents were surveyed at each location, for a total of 99 subjects per quadrant • Each quadrant then supplied on more subject, to bring the total number of surveyed citizens to 400 • T-tests on multiple demographic variables failed to show a statistically significant difference between the sample and the city population as a whole

12. SUPPORT • Pearson Correlation scores were calculated • SUPPORT: the dependent variable, the willingness of the public to back development of additional water sources for San Antonio • Significant factors included a lack knowledge that the Edwards aquifer would fail to sustain growth, as well as the direct affect upon the respondent • The majority of respondents identified drinking water availability as a major concern, but were either unwilling to support or unaware that large projects would be needed to address the problem

14. Communication Breakdown • Only 13% of respondents voted in the referendum • Over half of those that did vote knew their properties would not be impacted, indicating that this was not necessarily the driving factor for opposing the project • Tellingly, less than 3% of respondents learned about the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project via civic meetings, the main strategy employed by the city planners • Most learned about the project through local media

15. The most telling results • Statistically significant factors • Awareness of the project • Awareness of contamination risk • Support for water resource development • Whether respondents’ property would be affected • Level of education • Effective communication by city planners • Knowledge of the impending water shortage crisis

16. Lessons learned • City planners need to more adequately inform the public of future risks, via media and social networks • Failure to effectively plan and implement sustainable strategies can result in greater financial, environmental, and municipal catastrophes • San Antonio is currently importing water at costs greater than $600 million • More ecosystems are threatened (even coastal wetlands are being considering)

17. Conservation Biology • When the public is uninformed about major resource projects of any kind, those projects are unlikely to succeed • Failure of the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project has now put more ecosystems at risk and increased the burden on the taxpayer • Large projects are doomed to failure when the number of voters is low, minority groups are spreading more information than the city, and the most apparent aspects to those who do vote are taxes and property seizure, not sustainability and future growth

18. Democracy • The most informed, environmentally aware individuals have one vote • The uninformed citizen who has learned only of controversy and opposition through media and knows little of the actual situation also has one vote • Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it: the current crisis is due to a lack of planning and forethought, and the failure of the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project shows that that same careless ignorance persists when those who know better fail to actively and positively promote sustainability

19. Questions?