Persistence to Graduation for Transfer and "Native" Students: A Case Study

1. Persistence to Graduation for Transfer and "Native" Students:A Case Study John W. Miller, Ph.D. President, Central Connecticut State University Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Director of Institutional Research & Assessment, CCSU Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum Seattle, WA May 26, 2008

2. Overview • Institutional Profile • Overview of the problem → to what extent do differences in earned credit hours contribute to differences in graduation rates? • Methodology and Results • Conclusions and Implications

3. Institutional Profile: Central Connecticut State University • Public – part of Connecticut State Univ. System • Carnegie 2005 Master’s-larger programs • Fall 2007 Enrollment: • 12,106 headcount (9,704 undergraduate, 23% residential); 9,288 full-time equivalent enrollment • 52% female; 16% minority • Full-time, first-time students: 1,469 (56% residential) • Full-time, new transfer students: 678 • Six-year graduation rates: • 44% full-time, first-time students • 56% transfer students (full-time upon entry)

4. Methodology • Divide subjects by origin • Full-time first-time student • Full-time transfer students • Group subjects by credits earned rather than by fall of entry • Measure time to graduation (Fall-to-Fall), regardless of time at institution • e.g. after earning 76-90 credits, how many graduated in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 10 years? • Produce descriptive statistics and run logistic regressions

5. Study Population Unduplicated, Full-Time Students in Study Population, Fall 1991-2006 Total observations (duplicated individuals): 86,342 over 16 years

6. Graduation Rates by Credits Earned

7. Differences in Graduation Rates

8. Logistic Regression (1) • Two variable model (Forward conditional) All variables significant at p<0.001 Model accuracy: 68.9% correct Cox & Snell R2: 0.138 NagelkerkeR2: 0.188

9. Logistic Regression (2) • Multivariate model (Forward conditional)

10. Major Findings • Total credits earned is most significant predictor of graduation • Native students graduated at higher rates than transfer students after controlling for credits earned • Other significant predictors: • First semester GPA • Credits attempted first semester • GPA in term of analysis

11. Conclusions and Implications (1) • At CCSU, and I suspect at other institutions, we need to recognize the lower success rate of our transfer students by comparing their progress to their equivalent credit counterparts. • While recognizing and respecting the experiences of transfer students, we must appreciate that they still need similar support to FT/FTs modified for them (e.g. FYTE course).

12. Conclusions and Implications (2) • More careful exploration of our transfer compacts to determine how to better pave the way for transition is required. • We must more deeply study our “counting” of credits as meeting requirements, used as electives, or not counted at all to ensure maximum appropriate progress toward completion at time of transfer.

13. Persistence to Graduation for Transfer and "Native" Students:A Case Study Contact Information: John W. Miller, Ph.D. President, Central Connecticut State University millerjw@ccsu.edu Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Director of Institutional Research & Assessment, CCSU hoschbrj@ccsu.edu