Indiana Water Conditions Webinar

1. Indiana Water Conditions Webinar Tuesday, July 17, 2012

2. The purpose of this webinar is to discuss the current water conditions in Indiana Presenters: • Al Shipe, National Weather Service • Drew Daily, IN Dept. Natural Resources • Jerry Unterreiner, IN Dept. Natural Resources • Bruno Pigott, IN Dept. Environmental Mgt. • Danielle McGrath, IN Utility Regulatory Commission • Joseph Kelsay, IN Dept. Agriculture • Joe Wainscott, IN Dept. Homeland Security

3. Questions • If you have any questions, please select “raise your hand” on the GoToWebinar platform. • If you are participating in this session via phone only, send your question(s) in email to pio@dhs.in.gov.

4. Al Shipe National Weather Service al.shipe@noaa.gov

5. Drought Outlook • Rainfall • Streamflows • Historic Comparsion • Drought Outlook Based on History • NWS Drought Outlook • NWS OHRFC Streamflow Outlook • Rainfall Outlook into Autumn • Summary

6. Rainfall 2011 to 2012 • 2011 was the wettest on record in Indiana • 2012 has been 6th driest on record in Indiana so far and worsening

7. Current Streamflows • Much below normal streamflows most of state

8. Historic Drought 1895 • Moderate Drought develops in April • Palmer Drought Index becomes severe over most of state by July 1895, main impact central and north

9. Historic Drought 1934 • Moderate to severe drought already ongoing in Indiana in April 1934 • All of Indiana reaches extreme drought by July 1934 - much of country covered and all of corn-belt impacted

10. Historic Drought 1936 • Abnormally dry conditions in Indiana in April 1934 • All of Indiana reaches severe to extreme drought by July 1936 - all of corn-belt impacted

11. Historic Drought 1954 • Severe to extreme drought ongoing in southern half of Indiana • Severe to extreme drought in southern half of state, wetness forms far north

12. Historic Drought 1988 • Minimal drought in Indiana in April 1988 • Moderate to severe drought over all of Indiana by July 1988

13. Historic Drought 2012 • Minimal drought in Indiana in April 2012 • Severe to extreme drought over most of Indiana in July 2012 • Most similar to 1936 and 1934

14. Historic Droughts Compared to 2012 • Current drought in July 2012 compares very close to average of 1895, 1934, 1936, 1954 and 1988 droughts

15. Drought Outlook Based on History • Minimal drought improvement in August based on historical droughts • Some improvement likely by fall but moderate to severe drought could persist

16. Drought Outlook Into September • Drought will persist in Indiana into September • Probability is any improvement will be very gradual

17. NWS Ohio River Forecast Center August Streamflow Outlook • Hydrologic models also confirm drought will persist in Indiana into late summer • Any improvement will be minimal

18. Rainfall Outlook into Autumn • August to October rainfall outlook by NWS climate models indicate risk is still there for below normal rainfall • However, climate models indicate rainfall deficits may be not as extreme

19. Drought Outlook Summary • A major drought will persist for the rest of summer in Indiana • Based on weather models and historical data, some increase in rainfall is possible by autumn • However, any improvement in drought conditions will be slow into autumn

20. Percent of Normal Rainfall 30 days vs. 90 days

21. Rainfall from Thursday through Sunday

22. Water Resources Outlooks • Subscribe to the Ohio River Forecast Center Water Resources Outlook • Monthly Outlook talking about drought risk • Probability maps • Subscribe online at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/new?topic_id=USNWS_1048 Discussion: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/HAS/text/wro.txt http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

23. Drew Daily State Fire Supervisor Indiana Department of Natural Resources Fire Division of Forestry forestryinfo@dnr.IN.gov

24. Indiana Division of Forestry Fire Control Headquarters

25. Fire Severity Indices • Fuel Moisture • Live (Woody & Herbaceous) • Dead (1 hr., 10 hr., 100 hr., 1000 hr.) • Drought Measure • Drought Monitor • Drought Forecast • Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) • Palmer Drought Index

26. Fire Severity Indices cont. • Energy Release Component • Cumulative • Composite Fuel Moistures • Considers previous 7 days • Burning Index • Indication of the contribution that fire behavior makes to the effort to contain a fire. • Experience / Observation

31. Departure from Average Greeness in %(source: WFAS) Average *15 year dataset

32. Precipitation Analysis

33. Current Fuels Indices 1 hr. 10 hr 100 hr. 1000 hr. Woody Herb. Hardin Ridge 5 6 13 13 86 57 * Hardin Ridge Observations are a good “average” representation of conditions statewide. Normal 11+ 13+ 17+ 21+ 200↓ 250↓

37. Indiana Wildland Fire Outlook for July -August • Statewide: • Increased Fire Occurrence • Elevated Fire Intensity/Severity • Increased Urban Interface Occurrence • Steuben – Posey Corridor: • Increased Fire Occurrence • Above Normal Intensity / Severity • Problematic Fire Behavior • Extended Contain/Control Time • Northeast Corner • Problematic Fire Behavior • Agricultural Fuel Availability • Extended Containment Time • Prolonged Mop-Up / Resource Commitment • Southwest Quarter • Problematic / Extreme Fire Behavior • Significant Resource Commitment • Emerging Large Fire Potential

38. Keys to Successfor Fire Personnel • LCES • Lookouts • Communications • Escape Routes • Safety Zones • Establish a Staging Area and Accountability • Implement ICS From Onset • Request the Appropriate Assistance • Equipment and Personnel

39. Indiana Division of Forestry Fire Control Headquarters

40. Bruno Pigott Assistant Commissioner Indiana Department of Environmental Management Office of Water Quality bpigott@idem.in.us

41. Jerry Unterreiner Indiana Department of Natural Resources Water

43. Water Shortage Warning • IDHS and IDNR have issued a Water Shortage Warning • Drought conditions for all counties in the State of Indiana.

44. Water Shortage Warning • Objectives • Prepare for a coordinated response • Imminent water shortage conditions • Potential water supply problems • Initiate concerted voluntary conservation measures

45. Water Shortage Warning • Objectives • Avoid or reduce shortages • Relieve stressed sources • If possible forestall the need for mandatory water use restrictions

46. Water Shortage Warning • Water Shortage Watch: lowest or mildest of the three drought advisory phases • Water Shortage Warning is the second most severe stage • Water Shortage Emergency is the most extreme condition

47. Water Shortage Warning • Water Shortage Warning was previously issued on July 2, 2012 for 32 counties in northeast and southwest Indiana

48. Water Shortage Warning • Water Shortage Warning stage goal is voluntary reduction in current use 10-15% • Public water supply systems: immediately develop and update water shortage contingency plans

49. Water Shortage Warning • Indiana’s Water Shortage Plan http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/files/watshplan.pdf • Lists several voluntary water conservation measures and programs • Water Shortage Warning, and can be found on pages 16 through 18

50. Water Shortage Warning • Indiana’s Water Shortage Plan has “Indiana Suggested Model Ordinance” • Developed by the Water Shortage Task Force to serve as a template for a Local Unit of Government