Natural Disasters and Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts in China

1. Concluding Regional Workshop on Disaster Assessment 19-21 October 2005 Bangkok, Thailand Natural Disasters and Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts in China Mr. Zhang Lei National Disaster Reduction Center of China 21 October 2005

2. 1 Natural Disasters in China

3. Characteristics of natural disasters in China • I. China is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters in the world. Natural disasters in China are varied, frequent, widespread and highly damaging. • II. High frequency of occurrence. • III. Different disasters in different regions and seasons. • IV. Hefty losses incurred by disasters. • V. China is most vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters, such as flood, drought, typhoon and so on. Hydro-meteorological disasters and earthquakes cause the worst damages, accounting for 80 to 90 percent of the total losses.

4. The Chinese Government attaches great importance to disaster reduction and incorporates it into national plans for economic and social development. While attaining rapid economic growth, the Government also pays attention to reducing ecological, resource and environmental stress in an effort to reduce risks of disasters. We are fully aware that natural disasters are common challenges faced by all, and that disaster reduction calls for joint efforts and close cooperation of the international community.

5. 2 Natural Disaster Management System of China

6. Natural Disaster Management System of China • China National Commission for Disaster Reduction (CNCDR) is designed to coordinate the natural disaster relief/emergency efforts. • The Board of Experts serves as an advisory body for the CCIDR. It is committed to providing advice and suggestions for key decisions and planning concerning disaster reduction drive. • National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC) is a specialized agency, belonging to the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA), NDRCC serves as a center for disaster information sharing, technical services and emergency relief decision consultancy.

7. 3 Natural disaster emergency response management in China

8. Incorporate disaster reduction into national development plans and social policies • In 1998, the Chinese Government formulated the Disaster Reduction Plan 1998-2010 of the People’s Republic of China, setting forth the strategic goals for national disaster reduction. • The Chinese Government promulgated and implemented the National Overall Preparatory Plansfor Emergency Public Incidents, 25 special and 80 departmental preparatory plans to strengthen emergency management in a comprehensive manner.

9. Strong commitment to disaster reduction • Following the adoption of the “International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction” (IDNDR) agreement by the United Nations General Assembly, the China Committee for IDNDR (CNCIDNDR) was established in 1989. It was renamed China National Commission for Disaster Reduction (CNCDR) by the State Council last January. • China promulgated and put into force The Disaster Reduction Program of the People’s Republic of China (1998-2010)and conducted a mid-term assessment on the implementation of the Program in 2004.

10. 4 Assessment of Socio-economic Impacts of Flood in Huaihe River Basin

11. General situation of Huaihe River Basin • Located in the east part of China between the two basins of Yangtze River and Yellow River. • Covers a total area of 270,000 km3, consists of five provinces of Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Shandong and Jiangsu, 40 under cities and 181 counties with a total pupulation of 0.165 billion. • Severe floods, waterlog and droughts often take place in Huaihe Basin.

12. Huaihe River Basin Flood Disasters in Year 2003 • On 20 June 2003, Anhui Province were assaulted by rainstorms. Accumulative total rainfall exceeded 40 mm in most areas north of Huaihe River. Long time continuous strong rainfall caused the largest ever flood in Huaihe River since year 1991. • In Anhui Province, 26,451,000 people were affected: 18 died, 1,160,000 were emergently evacuated, 2,272,000 ha crops were affected. 260,000 rooms collapsed and the direct economic loss amounted to 14.7 billion Yuan RMB.

13. Basic Information of Shouxian County • Located in the middle part of Anhui Province, on the south bank of the middle reaches of Huaihe River. • With the history of more than 2000 years, covers a total area of 2.986 km2, consists of 25 towns. • The total population is 1,296,800, among which 1,118,600 is agricultural population; the natural population growth rate was about 6.9%. • A state level poverty-stricken county. In year 2004, Shouxian county realized a GDP of 3.89 billion Yuan RMB, GDP 370 (USD) per person, per capital annual net income of a farmer was 2,164 Yuan RMB.

14. Assessment of Flood Disaster in Shouxian County • According to the ECLAC methodology, combined with the real situation of natural disaster loss assessment in China, our case study takes on the economic losses of “collapsed houses” as key assessment content and at the same time gives attention to losses on irrigation works, lifeline and agriculture. • To facilitate comparisons, we have respectively chosen the two towns of “Yaokouxiang Village” and “Dashunzhen Town” as experimental units to carry out socio-economic impact assessments on floods and waterlog disaster.

15. 5 types of Architectural Structures in China • Earth and timberwork: mainly houses built with timber frames, adobe walls and tile roofs. • Brick and timberwork: mainly houses built with timber frames, brick walls and tile roofs or brick walls, tile roofs with an upside-down letter “V” timber frame. • Brick mix: brick walls are built for weight bearing resulting in good architectural quality. • Frame structure: use reinforced concrete for weight bearing, on-hand molded floorboards or roofs with good anti-seismic performance. • Others: All those structures beyond the above-mentioned four types such as bamboo structure, brick arch structure, cave-houses, etc.

16. 5 Damage Level Standards in China • Basically Intact: Earth and timberwork houses with very few tile fallen or slight fissures on the wall; brick and timberwork, brick mix and frame structure houses non-weight-bearing components have slight fissures. It could be kept on using without repairs. • Slightly damaged: houses with obvious fissures on the wall, overall tile damage, slight fissures on very few weight-bearing components of the brick and timberwork, brick mix and frame structure houses and obvious fissures on non-weight-bearing wall components. • Medium damaged: Earth and timberwork construction with severe fissures or becomes slanted, partial wall collapse, a great deal of tile damages. Brick and timberwork, brick mix and frame structure houses with slight damages on weight-bearing components.

17. 5 Damage Level Standards in China (continued) • Severely damaged: Earth and timberwork structure with two to three walls collapsed or house frame slanted; brick and timber, brick mix and frame structure houses with most of their weight-bearing components severely damaged and impossible to repair. • Complete Collapse (destroyed): Earth and timberwork structure houses with all walls collapsed, framework slanted, roofs fallen and complete collapse. Earth and timberwork, brick and timberwork, and frame structure houses with most weight-bearing components broken. The structure is on the edge of collapse or already collapsed. Impossible to repair.

18. 5 Damage Level Standards in China (continued) • According to the Statistic Systems on Natural Disaster Information in China jointly issued by the Ministry of Civil Administration together with the National Statistic Bureau, construction damages are divided into two categories: collapsed houses and damaged houses. Collapsed houses Basically intact slightly damaged medium damaged Damaged houses Severely damaged Completely collapsed

19. Assessment Method • The economic loss of damaged houses is sum up of losses on various structures and those on all damages grades. Total loss = Type “S” Structure Area X Type “S” Structure Damage Ratio under Damage Grade “J” X Type “S” loss Ratio Under Damage Grade “J” X Type “S” Restoration Unit Price

20. Total Loss Calculation Caused by Disasters in Shouxian County • Our case study uses ECLAC method, combined with the actual situation of natural disasters in China to carry out assessment on houses and constructions, lifeline projects, irrigation works and crops. • Assessment results indicate that the 2003 Huaihe River Basin floods and waterlog caused a direct economic loss of 1.76 billion Yuan RMB.

21. Calculation and Analysis of Total Losses in Shouxian County • In terms of economic structure, Shouxian County is an agricultural county. In 2004, agriculture accounted for a proportion as high as 40.6 % of its GDP. • Judged by the direct economic losses, agriculture losses did not occupy a rather large proportion in the total losses. • House collapses is the key facts in causing significant social and economic losses to the disaster area.

22. Recommendation on ECLAC Method • With our case study on Shouxian County of Anhui Province, the ECLAC method is to assess comprehensive impacts of disasters on the society, economy and environment using currency as its tool after sufficient investigations. • The ECLAC method divides disaster losses into direct damages, indirect losses and macroeconomic effects. The assessment result is represented by currency. • The ECLAC method is an advanced and valuable method and has certain guiding sense for disaster loss assessment in China.

23. Applicability and Potential of ECLAC Method in China In China, restricted by various conditions, it is now difficult to carry out direct and macroeconomic losses calculations. • China has a very large territory. In such a huge area, many parameters for assessing indirect economic losses are difficult to acquire. • Many places of China often suffer repeated hits within short period of time. Restricted by subjective as well as objective conditions such as the quantity and quality of local government staff, it is rather difficult to carry out indirect losses assessment. • ELCAC method involves work of different departments, so it may be difficult to collect data timely. This results in a weak practicability and comparatively unsatisfactory maneuverability for its adoption in the current development stage of China.

24. 5 Prospects of Disaster Management in China

25. Incorporate comprehensive risk management of disasters into the 11th Five Year National Plan for Development • We shall actively push forward the drafting of disaster reduction plans by relevant government departments at the central and local levels, strengthen capacity building at all levels of the government, and take various measures in incorporating disaster reduction into sustainable development of the society. • We shall also carry out nationwide surveys of disaster reduction capacity, bring into perspective the current status of local disaster reduction capacity in different regions, identify the shortfalls and needs, with a view to provide solid basis for decision making by local governments and relevant government departments in initiating and implementing economic and social development plans and policies.

26. Push forth disaster reduction at the community level • We shall continue to carry out information dissemination and education programs at the local level, focusing on “disaster reduction and the community”, “disaster reduction in classrooms” and “disaster reduction in the rural areas”. Continue to strengthen international exchanges and cooperation in disaster reduction • The Chinese Government will further strengthen cooperation and exchanges in disaster reduction with other countries, international agencies, regional disaster reduction organizations and NGOs.

27. Asia has vast areas, a huge population and complex climatic, geological and geographical conditions. Frequent major natural calamities often result in heavy human and property losses for the Asian people. It is the common aspirations of all governments and peoples to enhance our ability to cope with disaster risks and lessen disaster losses. Let us join our hands, further strengthen exchanges and cooperation and make new contribution to effectively mitigating natural disasters and achieving sustainable economic and social development.

28. THANKS Zhang Lei (zhanglei@ndrcc.gov.cn) National Disaster Reduction Center of China 21 October 2005