USFS Atmospheric Sciences Research Program Meeting August 14, 2002

1. NASA Atmospheric Sciences: Research & Applications USFS Atmospheric Sciences Research Program Meeting August 14, 2002 Lawrence Friedl NASA-HQ, Office of Earth Science LFriedl @ hq.nasa.gov 202.358.1599

2. NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) Earth Science Enterprise Mission: Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes to enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations. • Science Research • Technology • Applications

3. From Science to Decision Support Science Models & Data Assimilation Predictions Value & benefits to citizens and society - Oceans - Ice - Land - Coupled - Atmosphere Info. Products Decision Support Tools Policy Decisions Management Decisions High Performance Computing, Communication, & Visualization • - Assessments • Decision Support • Systems Data Monitoring & Measurements Observations Data Products • Satellite • Airborne • Ground

4. ESE Earth Science Questions • How is the global Earth system changing? • What are the primary forcings of the Earth system? • How does the Earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes? • What are the consequencesof changes in the Earth system for human civilization? • How well can we predict future changes in the Earth system?

5. NASA ESE: Atmospheric Sciences Research Foci • Stratospheric Ozone • Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols • Global and Regional Air Quality Challenges • Processes which govern the amounts and pathways of pollution transported over hemispheric distances • Effects of climate change on stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, aerosols, and water vapor • The effects of changing atmospheric composition on climate • Nature and timing of stratospheric ozone recovery • Sources and sinks for greenhouse gases and aerosols • Effects of pollutants and climate change on the cleansing power of the atmosphere

6. Implementation Strategy Space-Based Missions Sub-Orbital Measurements Ground Networks National & International Assessments Verify Laboratory Studies Chemical Transport Modeling Data Assimilation • Improved Prognostic Ability • Ozone Depletion and Recovery • Agents of Climate Forcing • Global and Regional Air Quality Characterize Understand Predict

7. Motion of the Earth’s Interior Land Cover Changes Climate Forcings 2 1.40.2 Black Carbon Volcanic Aerosols (range of Decadal mean) 0.70.2 1 0.60.2 0.40.2 CFCs N2O Forced Cloud Changes Land Cover Alterations Sulfate + Nitrate 0.350.05 Soil Dust Organic Carbon Biomass Burning 0.150.05 F ( W / m 2 ) 0 CO2 CH4 Sun Tropospheric Ozone 0.80.4 - 0.10.2 - 0.20.1 - 0.20.2 (0.2, - 0.5) - 0.20.2 (semi-direct, dirty cloud &snow effects) (indirect via O3 and H2O) (indirect via stratospheric ozone) -1 (indirect via O3) - 1.10.5 (nitrate) -1.00.4 Tropospheric Aerosols -2 Greenhouse Gases Other Anthropogenic Forcings Natural Forcings Research and satellite observations enable the global characterization of factors forcing the climate system and their relative strengths.

8. Intercontinental Transport of Pollution:Assimilated CO Data from MOPITT Asia Asia North America North America March 10, 2000 March 12, 2000 800 MB 800 MB Asia Asia North America North America March 13, 2000 March 15, 2000 March 13, 2000 March 15, 2000 800 MB 800 MB

9. Improving Global Pollution ModelsUsing Satellite Data: Tropospheric NO2 Space-based Measurement Chemical Transport Model

11. Tropospheric Aerosol Measurements from MODIS

12. Tropospheric Aerosol Measurements from Space What we will learn. What we have learned. 2004-2008 Satellite Formation-Flying 1980-90’s TOMS & AVHRR • First global picture of aerosols over land and ocean • Impact of aerosols on clouds & radiationbudget. • 4-D distribution of aerosols. Late 1990’s - 2004 MODIS & MISR 2008-2014 Future Mission • Separation of fine and coarse aerosols • Man made fine aerosols: biomass burning & urban pollution • Natural coarse aerosols: soil dust and sea salt • Role of black carbon aerosols on radiation budget. • Improved global mapping of aerosol types.

13. O3 NO2 SO2 HCHO AURA – OMI: “Tropospheric Residual” Data and Products potentially available in 2004

14. Completed campaigns 1996-2002 Planned campaigns 2003 Airborne/Suborbital Campaigns Provide Global Access to Regional Processes • Satellite/Space Data Product Calibration/Validation & Algorithm Development • Process Studies & Model Validation • Applications Development & Demonstration • Space Sensor and Remote Sensing Technology Development & Demonstration • Future capability for focused observations of persistent but finite phenomena and hazardous operations (UAVs)

15. Large-scale, Long-term, Multi-party Projects AERONET: An Internationally-Federated Network • Characterization of aerosol optical properties • Validation of Satellite Aerosol Retrievals • Near real-time data acquisition; long term measurements

16. Products for Decision-Makers DECISION SUPPORT

17. Major Advances Thus Far • Amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols are increasing globally • Interannual variability and growth rates are not well understood in some cases • Long-range transport of pollution affects global atmospheric composition • Agricultural fires • Industrial and urban pollution • Declining abundance of stratospheric ozone in the polar regions & globally, much of which can be attributed to halogen chemistry and aerosol processes • Antarctic ozone hole • Frequent, large winter/spring reductions in the Arctic • Global average decline of about 4% since the late 1970s • Concentrations of ozone destroying chemicals & their breakdown products are slowly beginning to decrease in the troposphere and stratosphere • In agreement with industrial production and estimated release • In agreement with atmospheric chemistry models

18. Enabling Advances for Global Air Quality • Enhanced temporal and horizontal resolution to observe rapidly evolving chemical events and quantify export from large source regions to the global atmosphere • Spectral imaging from geostationary or L-1 orbit • Advanced focal plane arrays enabling high dynamic range, radiation tolerant UV-NIR imaging • high spatial resolution IR imaging at moderate temperatures • Enhanced vertical resolution to observe ozone and aerosols layers, and quantify the chemical, transport and radiative consequences of these vertical structures • Lidar observations from low Earth orbit • High-power UV lasers • Deployabletelescope systems

19. Major Contributions to Come • Global observations to quantify stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes for improved predictions of atmospheric composition • Extension of the long-term record of high-precision global total column and profile abundance of ozone into the NPOESS period • Identification of the chemical and dynamical processes that govern the amount and global distribution of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where it has the greatest climate impact • Continue the record of changes in total solar irradiance over two solar cycles into the NPOESS period • Baseline 4-D distribution and optical properties of aerosols in the global atmosphere • Global survey of the vertically resolved distributions of tropospheric ozone and its key precursor species (H2O, CO, CH4, nitrogen oxides)

20. Products for Decision-Makers • Global models that can be used in assessments for predictive and retrospective studies of atmospheric chemical processes and associated climate change • Long-term trends of variability of solar irradiance, atmospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor needed as input for global and regional climate assessment models • Long-term data sets of surface UV flux for use by ecological and human health communities • Abundances and trends of halocarbons, including both naturally occurring and anthropogenic chemicals and their replacements, regulated under the Montreal Protocol • Integrated models of the effects of long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants and their precursors on regional air quality and on human/ecosystem health • Improved capability for forecasting pollution episodes and identifying regions at risk and information to guide targeted reduction of emissions in at-risk regions.

21. From Science to Decision Support Applying NASA’s system engineering approach and ESE results to support decision-making tools, predictions, and analysis for policy and management decisions. Science Models & Data Assimilation Value & benefits to citizens and society - Oceans - Ice - Land - Coupled - Atmosphere Predictions Decision Support Tools Policy Decisions Management Decisions High Performance Computing, Communication, & Visualization • - Assessments • Decision Support • Systems Data Monitoring & Measurements Data Products • Satellite • Airborne • Ground

22. Priority National Applications Carbon Management Energy Forecasting Public Health Aviation Safety Coastal Management Water Management Homeland Security Disaster Preparedness Agricultural Competitiveness Community Growth Invasive Species Air Quality

23. Decision Support Systems Water Management (AWARDS) Coastal Management (HAB Forecast) Disaster Preparedness (HAZUS) Agricultural (FAS Forecast) Air Quality (CMAQ/Models-3) Aviation Safety (NAS/AWIN)

24. National Applications: Socioeconomic Benefits

25. Global Observations Support Local Communities 1 6 0 1 5 0 D a i l y P M 1 0 a n d P M 2 . 5 C o n c e n t r a t i o n s f r o m 0 4 / 0 1 / 0 0 t o 0 4 / 3 0 / 0 0 S T _ N A M E = N C C T Y _ N A M E = F O R S Y T H S I T E = 3 7 0 6 7 0 0 2 2 P O C = 1 1 4 0 C o n c e n t r a t i o n , u g / m 3 1 6 0 1 5 0 1 4 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 1 1 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P 9 0 R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 Time series of PM10 and PM2.5 Forsyth County, NC April 2001 2000 April 1-30, 2001 April 7-9: Major dust storm originates over Gobi Desert Backward trajectory indicates dust plume probable source of elevated PM10 in NC on April 20 Concentration, ug/m3 April 11-20: Remnants of dust storm move across the US Policy Significance • EPA regulators can evaluate exceptional events for effects on NAAQS violations; provide waivers • Regulators can account for foreign anomalies in determining air quality “attainment” areas TOMS Aerosol Index Source: Mintz and Szykman, USEPA/OAQPS, 2002

26. Air Quality: Decision Support • Global-to-regional chemical/transport models and measurements provide comprehensive diagnostics to support local measurements • EPA has recognized need to model/measure above the boundary layer and beyond urban scale–areas where NASA has productive research • Global/regional observations augment network of ground-based measurements • Support to ground-based ozone monitors helps distinguish local/regional nature of ozone pollution episodes • Support development and functionality of air quality models • Boundary conditions and Emissions inventories • States and regional planning organizations use models to assess effects of emissions control strategies and construct attainable State Implementation Plans • Improved forecasts of ozone and pollution episodes allow regulatory mitigation before onset of episode to reduce build-ups • Environmental Treaties and Pollution Conventions • Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POP) & Protocol on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on POP submitted to Senate for ratification in April 2002 • Assessment technique to monitor transboundary pollutants & POP entering US

27. Ozone Builds Off Coast Behind Stationary Front July 6: Major Northern Pollution Event Established Backward trajectory calculations show air from North contributing to ozone pool Meteorology Conducive to Widespread Stagnation July 9: Pollution Episode Develops In South Forward trajectories show eastward transport from ozone maximum off the coast of North Carolina into the South 3 days later Fishman and Balok [1999, JGR, 104, pp. 30,319] Satellite Data Captures Northern Pollution Effecting Southern States

28. Regional Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) Chemical Assimilation/Prediction Public Impact Regional Prediction Global Assimilation ESE Satellite Products RAQMS can help validate and extend capabilities of air quality models

29. Air Quality Management: Clean Air Standards and Air Quality Forecasts Earth System Modeling Framework Forecasts by 2012: Robust emissions control planning and management. Routine warnings of elevated pollution episodes. Accurate 3-day air quality forecasts. Primary Partners: CMAQ / Forecasts: State/regional planning. Same-day air quality predictions. DRAFT Prevent 1000s premature deaths/year Mitigate $5B- $10B/yr crop damage Outcomes: Accurate (regional, multi-day)pollution forecasts.NAAQS planning andmitigation based on validated models. • Simultaneous, high time & space resolved multi-pollutant (O3, CO, NOx, SO2,HCHO, aerosol) data enablessound decision making Outcomes: Reassess ozone and precursor transport across state boundaries. Implement air quality strategies & related development policy based on detailed data and models. • Couple chemistry& aerosol models • Assimilate satellite data for trace constituents Impacts: Reduce asthma & lung related diseases. Improve visibility. Improve crop health & yields. Outcomes: Determine source and destination of long range dust and pollutants. Route airplanes. More accurate forecasts of haze & pollutionepisodes. Warn hospitals & farmers. • Monitor long range transport of mineral and pollution aerosol (CALIPSO) Outcomes: Quantify contributions of physical & chemical processes to pollutant concentrations. Extendozone forecasting to regional transport for urban to rural areas. Improved capabilities to air quality management tools to assess, plan and implement emissions control strategies & improve air quality forecasts. • Ozone, SO2 & NO2profiles & regional transport • (Build on TOMS & GOME) • Continental inflow/outflow Socioeconomic Impact Outcomes: Assess effects of emissions control options. Evaluate development options and emissions strategies to set policies and construct attainable State (air quality) Implementation Plans. Impacts: Reduce impaired lung function and use of medications. Reduce hospital admissions and lost work/school days. • Improveboundary conditions • (ozone residual) • Validate measurements Outcomes: Evaluate exceptionalevents for effect on NAAQS violations; provide exceptions for attainment. • Large scale • transport of • aerosols (TOMS aerosol index) Current trajectory: Steady improvement in documenting the chemical content of the lower atmosphere, Steady improvement in the physical accuracy of modeled processes for pollution episode warnings. NPOESS CALIPSO TERRA SAGE III TOMS AQUA AURA Cloud Sat 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

30. Earth Science in the Nation’s Service Extend the use of Earth science knowledge, data, and technology to support our partners’ decision systems and management responsibilities. Local Governments Federal Agencies Universities NASA Centers State Governments Scientists International Partners

31. Back-up Slides

34. In general, tropospheric column density is determined using coincident measurements HIRDLS measurement stratosphere tropopause OMI measurement Difference = “tropospheric residual” troposphere Note: OMI horizontal resolution varies from 13 km x 24 km at nadir to about ~100 km at the extreme off-nadir. 24 km 13 km Source: Fishman, J., Chandra, S., Ziemke, J., Draft OMI-ATBD, Chapter 5: Tropospheric O3 Residual, May 2002