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Formal Specification and State Space Analysis of an Operational Planning Process

Formal Specification and State Space Analysis of an Operational Planning Process. Brice Mitchell , Lars M. Kristensen, and Lin Zhang. Presentation Outline. Background Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) Modelling Approach Overview of the CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis

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Formal Specification and State Space Analysis of an Operational Planning Process

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  1. Formal Specification andState Space Analysis of anOperational Planning Process Brice Mitchell, Lars M. Kristensen, and Lin Zhang

  2. Presentation Outline • Background • Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) • Modelling Approach • Overview of the CPN Model • Simulation • State Space Analysis • Summary • Discussion Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  3. Background • Authors • Brice Mitchell • Command and Control Division • Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) • Edinburgh, South Australia, AUSTRALIA • Lars M. Kristensen • Department of Computer Science • University of Aarhus • Aarhus, DENMARK • Lin Zhang • Command and Control Division • Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) • Edinburgh, South Australia, AUSTRALIA Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  4. Background • Motivation • Deployable Joint Force Headquarters (DJFHQ) • Australian Defence Force • Deployable - Offshore military operations (East Timor 1999) • Joint - Army, Navy, and Air Force • Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) • Operational Planning Process • Used to develop plans for military operations • DJFHQ uses the JMAP • JMAP Doctrine • Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  5. Background • Problem • The JMAP at DJFHQ is not formally or completely described by documentation • Solution • Formal representation of the DJFHQ planning process using timed hierarchical CP-nets and Design/CPN • Validation and initial analysis using simulation • Further analysis using state space methods Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  6. Background • Benefits • Education of new staff • Experimentation of different variations of the process • Ability to monitor the process during exercises and operations • Greater understanding of the planning process • Identification of areas in the process for improvement • Framework to model any type of process, not necessarily an operational planning process Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  7. Background • Why CP-nets? • Ability to model complex discrete event systems which are have distributed and concurrent activities • Expertise in modelling and analysis through earlier projects in operational planning • Good graphical representation • Hierarchical structure • Ability to execute models • Mathematically rigorous • Analysis capabilities • Supporting computer tools • Design/CPN • CPN Tools Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  8. Background • Related work (Modelling and Analysis of Planning Processes) • L. M. Kristensen, B. Mitchell, L. Zhang, and J. Billington. Modelling and Initial Analysis of Operational Planning Processes using Coloured Petri nets. In proceedings of Workshop on Formal Methods Applied to Defence Systems, volume 12 in Conferences in Research and Practice in Information Technology, pp. 105-114. Australian Computer Society, 2002. • B. Mitchell. Formal Specification and Initial Analysis of an Operational Planning Process Using Coloured Petri Nets. Honours Thesis, University of South Australia, Australia, August 2002. • S. Lumsden, R. Smallwood, B. Mitchell, and L. Zhang. Modelling Operational Level Planning Processes with Coloured Petri Nets. 7th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium. 2002. Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  9. Background • Related work (Sweep Line) • S. Christensen, L.M. Kristensen, and T. Mailund. A Sweep-Line Method for State Space Exploration. In Proceedings of TACAS'2001, volume 2031 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pp. 450-464. Springer Verlag, 2001 • G. E. Gallasch, L. M. Kristensen, and T. Mailund. The Sweep/CPN Library. Available via http://www.daimi.au.dk/designCPN/libs/sweepcpn/ • G. E. Gallasch, C. Ouyang, J. Billington, and L. M. Kristensen. Experimenting with Progress Mappings for the Sweep-Line Analysis of the Internet Open Trading Protocol. In Proceedings of CPN’04, pp. 19-38. DAIMI PB – 570, October 2004 Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  10. Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  11. Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) Preliminary Scoping Mission Analysis 1 Review the Situation 2 Analyse Superior Commander’s Intent 3 Identify & Analyse Tasks 4 Identify & Analyse Freedom of Action 5 Identify & Analyse Critical Facts and Assumptions 6 Analyse Critical Vulnerabilities & Identify Decisive Events 7 Draft Commander’s Guidance 8 Prepare & Deliver Brief COA Development 1 Confirm Centre of Gravity 2 Refine Critical Vulnerability Analysis 3 Develop Lines of Operation 4 Develop the COA Scheme of Manoeuvre 5 Test COA Criteria 6 Prepare & Deliver Brief Comd’s Guidance Broad COAs Effects Decision & Execution 1 Compare COAs 2 Select the COA 3 Develop and Issue the Plan 4 Execute the plan COA Analysis 1 Determine the War Game Start State 2 Select War Game Method 3 Select War Game Record 4 Conduct the War Game Modified COAs Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  12. Modelling Approach Activity Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  13. Modelling Approach Activity Input Information Output Information Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  14. Modelling Approach Prior Activities Activity Input Information Output Information Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  15. Modelling Approach Prior Activities Activity Input Information Output Information {c1,…,cN} ci = (ni , {si1,…,sim}) {d1,…,dM} Required/Desired Staff Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  16. Modelling Approach Prior Activities Activity Input Information Output Information Duration Required/Desired Staff Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  17. Modelling Approach • Data Collection • Planning Documentation • ADFP9 Chapter 8, Joint Planning • DJFHQ SOP310, The Operational Planning Process • Data Collection Sheets • Working with DJFHQ Staff • Observing Planning Exercises • Vital Vision 2001 • Vital Launch 2002 Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  18. Overview of the CPN Model JMAP Page JMAP Step Pages Intermediate Pages Activity Pages Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  19. Overview of the CPN Model Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  20. Overview of the CPN Model Prior Activities Activity Input Information Output Information Required/Desired Staff Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  21. Overview of the CPN Model Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  22. Overview of the CPN ModelJMAP Step Page – Mission Analysis Intermediate Pages Activity Pages Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  23. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  24. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance Prior Activities Activity Name 1`MA7 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_DEs 1`18 Duration Output Information Input Information JPG_Req Common Inscriptions Required/Desired Staff JPG_Des 1`Proposed_Intent Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  25. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance …..++MA6 …..++ …..++ ….. 1’18 …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. Start Activity Stop Activity ……..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ …….. JPG_Res JPG_Des All Staff Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  26. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance …..++MA6 …..++ …..++ ….. …..++ ….. Start Activity Stop Activity ……..++ ….. Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  27. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance …..++MA6 …..++ …..++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. Start Activity JPG_Res+JPG_Des @+286 Stop Activity …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. All Staff – JPG_Des+JPG_Res Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  28. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance …..++MA6 …..++ …..++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. Start Activity JPG_Res+JPG_Des @+286 Stop Activity …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. All Staff – JPG_Des+JPG_Res Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  29. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance …..++MA6 …..++ …..++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. Start Activity Stop Activity …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  30. Overview of the CPN ModelActivity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance …..++MA6 ++MA7 …..++ …..++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ 1`Proposed_Intent++ ….. Start Activity Stop Activity …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ 1`Proposed_Intent++ ….. All Staff Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  31. Simulation • Simulations were performed to: • Validate the CPN model (interactive simulations) • Conduct initial analysis (automatic simulations) • 1 Simulation is 1 possible execution of the CPN model • Simulation reports were generated to investigate the behaviours of the process • Reports were used to produce GANTT charts where the execution ended in a desired terminal state • GANTT Charts show the what activities occur when Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  32. Simulation • Desired Terminal State • All desired information produced • All external information available at end • All staff are returned • All activities completed • A plan was produced Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  33. Simulation Desired Terminal State 7 41 77 77 1 1 Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  34. Simulation Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  35. SimulationNo Resource Requirements • Also investigated the completion time when there were no resource requirements • Process took 1845 minutes (compare to 2059) • A large number of activities were concurrent • Suggests that a method of improving the process is to enable concurrent activities through de-conflicting staff requirements Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  36. SimulationNo Resource Requirements Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  37. State Space Analysis • Interactive and automatic simulation helped validate the CPN model and provided initial analysis of the planning process • To extend analysis, the full state space was calculated using Design/CPN: • 14783 nodes • 21690 arcs • Generation time: 2 minutes 14 seconds (PIII Linux PC) Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  38. State Space Analysis • Boundedness Properties • max/min tokens for each place Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  39. State Space Analysis • Liveness • 14 reachable dead states • All 14 were desired (based on predicate) • Therefore if the planning process terminates, then it terminates in the desired state • Dead states • 2141 minutes (worst case) • 2059 (best case) • The optimal schedule for the planning process can be obtained by taking any path from the initial state, to a terminate state where the process has terminated at 2059 minutes Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  40. State Space Analysis • Completion times • Earliest and latest time for each activity • Obtained by traversing the state space using non-standard ML queries Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  41. State Space Analysis – Sweep Line • Full state space analysis was feasible in this study • More complex and detailed processes are likely to cause state space explosion • We applied the sweep line technique to this study • This framework can be used to test variations of the JMAP and other processes Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  42. State Space Analysis – Sweep Line • The sweep line technique can be applied to systems which have the formal notion of progress • Exploiting progress allows “old states” to be deleted and reclaimed in memory “on-the-fly” • We are able to apply the sweep line to our CPN model as successor states are equal or greater in time Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  43. State Space Analysis –Sweep Line 10 Not yet calculated Fully processed state Unprocessed state Layer 0 (0) 1 4 3 2 5 6 9 8 15 7 Layer 1 (10) 13 14 16 17 18 10 11 12 Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  44. State Space Analysis –Sweep Line • Sweep line method applied to CPN model • Max nodes in memory = 2149 • Generation Time = 2 mins 33 secs (full state space 2 mins 14 secs • Full State Space applied to CPN model • Max nodes in memory = 14783 (7x more states) • Generation Time = 2 mins 14 secs (~20 secs quicker) Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  45. Summary • A CPN model has been developed based on the DJFHQ planning process • This model has been validated using interactive simulation • Initial analysis has been conducted using simulation • Full analysis has been done by using full state space exploration • Sweep line methods have been applied with promising results Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  46. Summary – Future Work • Extension of the model to represent other related processes that interact with the JMAP • Replacement of deterministic duration with time intervals • Using the CPN model for training purposes within the Headquarters • Development of a planning plan for scheduleing and monitoring the process during a planning exercise • Implementation of models in CPN Tools Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

  47. Discussion Outline Background JMAP Approach CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion

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