Climate Simulation of the latest Permian: Implications for Mass Extinction

1. Climate Simulation of the latest Permian: Implications for Mass Extinction Jeffrey T. Kiehl National Center for Atmospheric Research CU Seminar

2. Outline • The Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction • Simulating the Climate of the Latest Permian: Implications for Marine Mass Extinction • Simulating the Chemical State of the Latest Permian: Implications for Terrestrial Mass Extinction • What About the Future? CU Seminar

3. CU Seminar Christopherson (2000)

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6. Berner (2005) CU Seminar

7. Erwin et al. (2002) CU Seminar

8. Late Permian Geologic Conditions • Pangea continental formation • Large Igneous Provinces in Siberia (16X106 km3 of basalt, 5X106 km2 in area, 0.4-3 km in thickness), ~700,000 years in duration • Sea level transgression through the P-T boundary into the early Triassic (Erwin et al. 2002) • Bolide Impact? • Methane Hydrates? • Oxygen ~17% CU Seminar

9. Erwin(2006) CU Seminar

10. Changes Across P-T Boundary • Marine Life (~95%) • Late Permian: Plethora of Benthic Life, Early Triassic: benthic life rare (dark sediments with pyrite deposits) • Terrestrial Life (~70%) • Late Permian tetrapod faunas reached high levels of complexity, Early Triassic shows loss of tetrapods, flora also dramatically effected • Marine and Terrestrial Changes Coincident in Time • Implications of global ocean anoxia CU Seminar

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12. Jin et al. (2000) CU Seminar

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14. Changes Across P-T Boundary • Dramatic Shift in18Oratio of ~ 6 %oor a global rise of ~6°C • Sharp Negative Excursion in13C from +4 %o to -2 %o (which cannot be explained by extinction of life or volcanic CO2 emissions) • Implies Global Warming and Large Input of 12C CU Seminar

15. Simulating the Climate of the Latest Permian: Implications for Marine Mass Extinction Kiehl, J.T. and C.A. Shields (2005), Climate simulation of the latest Permian, Geology, 33, 757-760. CU Seminar

16. Late Permian Boundary Conditions • Solar Constant 2.1% Reduction of Present, Eccentricity of 0°, Obliquity 23.5° (Gibbs et al. 2002) • CO2 level 10 X (Kidder & Worsley, 2003, Berner, 2005) • Topography/Bathymetry (Ziegler et al. 1997) • Ocean Floor Flat at 4000m CU Seminar

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19. atmosphere atmosphere ocean ocean Equilibrium? Be aware when things are out of balance. Tao Te Ching 53 CU Seminar

20. Global Annual Mean Energy Budget Permian coupled model run for 2700 years to new equilibrium state Forcing of 10X increase in CO2 and Permian paleogeography CCSM3 T31X3 Ts> = 8°C Global Annual Mean Surface Temperature CU Seminar

21. Global Results CU Seminar

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23. Evaporites Coals CU Seminar

24. Permian ENSO North Panthalassic Oscillation CU Seminar

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26. Present 1XCO2 10XCO2 CU Seminar

27. Permian MOC Present MOC Sv Sv Warm high latitude waters prevent formation of deep overturning CU Seminar

28. Inefficient mixing in Permian ocean indicative of anoxia Kiehl and Shields (2005) CU Seminar

29. Ocean Oxygen Distribution Brown et al. (1989) CU Seminar

30. 1XCO2 10XCO2 CU Seminar

31. 1XCO2 AGE 10XCO2 AGE CU Seminar

32. Permian 1% Reduction 10X to 1XCO2 Simulation 1.9XCO2 CU Seminar

33. 1% CO2 Transient Simulation CU Seminar Increasing CO2

34. Implications for Marine Extinction • Globally warm world shuts down high latitude pathways for surface water to reach ocean depth, this is apparently a stable solution • Combined with lower solubility and lower atmospheric oxygen, implies low O2 levels at depth -> global anoxia CU Seminar

35. Simulating Chemical State of the Latest Permian: Implications for Terrestrial Mass Extinction Lamarque, J.-F., J.T. Kiehl, C.A. Shields, B.A. Boville, and D.E. Kinnison (2006): Modeling the response to changes in tropospheric methane concentration: application to the Permian-Triassic Boundary, Paleoceanography, 21,PA3006. Lamarque, J.-F., J.T. Kiehl, and J.J. Orlando (2006): The role of hydrogen sulfide in a Permian-Triassic boundary ozone collapse, Geophysical Res. Lett.in press CU Seminar

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38. Increase in Surface UV-B CU Seminar

39. Heat Index CU Seminar

40. H2S OH O3 CU Seminar

41. Chemistry Conclusions • Massive injection of CH4 at the P-T boundary could potentially lead to a collapse in ozone • Ozone collapse implies a 7 fold increase in surface UV-B • Increase in CH4 leads to significant additional surface warming • Massive release of H2S leads to O(10) fold decrease in OH, which leads to large CH4 lifetime (~250 years) • This longer CH4 lifetime means ozone destruction will occur for lower levels of CH4 emission (210 GtC) CU Seminar

42. CO2 from Volcanic Large Igneous Provinces additional methane? Global warming (10oC) Warm Stratified Oceans Inefficient Mixing Global Ocean Anoxia Mass Marine Extinction CH4 Clathrate Release Large Increase in Atmospheric CH4 Large H2S Emission Impact on Atmospheric Chemistry Large Reduction In Atmospheric OH Collapse of Atmospheric Ozone Increase in UV-B possible if large enough methane increases methane lifetime MassExtinction of Terrestrial life CU Seminar

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44. What About the Future? CU Seminar

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46. North Atlantic 2000m Ideal Age 1% per year increase in CO2 3XPresent CU Seminar

47. THE END CU Seminar

48. The Upcoming Pangea CU Seminar