Weapons of Social Influence

1. Weapons of Social Influence Anti - Gov Cyber, Social Media, and the Future of Media Operations (C) 2013 by LTC U.M. Janßen, NSO/JOPS Pro - Gov

2. Outline What is Cyber Warfare? The changing character of Media Operations What is Social Media? Relevance in Behavioural Conflict Conclusion: What’s in it for the Military? The future of Media Operations

3. What is Cyber? Cyber Space Cyber War Cyber Terrorism Cyber Security Cyber Power Cyber Law Cyber – Hype???

4. Cyber Space the electronic medium of computer networks, in which online communication takes place. the dynamic realization of electromagnetic energy through the application of communication and control technology. a global domain that allows an interdependent network of information technology infrastructures (ITI), telecommunications networks, computer processing systems, integrated sensors, system control networks, embedded processors and controllers common to global control and communications across the electro-magnetic environment. a social experience, individuals can interact, exchange ideas, share information, provide social support, conduct business, direct actions, create artistic media, play games, engage in political discussion, and so on … (Wikipedia)

5. More… Cyber Warfare politically motivated hacking to conduct sabotage and espionage. a form of information warfare. analogous to conventional warfare. Richard A. Clarke "actions by a nation-state to penetrate another nation's computers or networks for the purposes of causing damage or disruption.“ The Economist "the fifth domain of warfare” William J. Lynn, US Deputy Secretary of Defense 2009-11 stated that "as a doctrinal matter, the Pentagon has formally recognized cyberspace as a new domain in warfare . . . [which] has become just as critical to military operations as land, sea, air, and space."

6. References NATO Policy & Doctrine on Cyber Warfare Not existing! Communication Security, Computer Security, Information Security, … Lots of Secs Cooperative Center of Excellence for Cyber Defense, Tallinn, EST NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA), The Hague/Brussels NATO Computer Incident Response Capability (NCIRC) Open source Own research

7. RUS / GEO Conflict 2008Situation & Timelines 19 Jul 08 – Distributed denial of service attacks 7 Aug 08 (20:43) – Internet connectivity disrupted 8 Aug 08 (05:30) – Russian troops enter Georgia 8 Aug 08 – Second wave of denial of service attacks 8 Aug 08 – Distribution of basic hacking tools 9 Aug 08 – Defacing of Georgian government web sites 15 Aug 08 – Spam campaign against Georgian president • 200,000 Internet user (2006), 4% of Pop • Georgia relies upon international optical fibre cable links • Limited Satellite Connectivity • Caucasus cable system through Russia, Ukraine and Bulgaria • Fibre backbone running form Poti to Tbilisi • Vulnerable to physical disruption

8. Georgia Internet Disruption - August 2008 Figure 2 - Caucasus Net routing at 22.37 on 7 Aug 2008 Figure 1 - Caucasus Net routing at 20.43 on 7 Aug 2008

9. Defacing of gov’t web sites 9th Aug Ministry for Foreign Affairs web site defaced on 9th August Hacktivist “stopgeorgia.ru” website Spam Attacks - Botnet Effect Dominance of the Information Environment Major influence effect on Georgian population

10. Cyber Ops efficiencyAn example: Egypt 2011

11. Actors in Cyber Space State and non-state Civil, Military, Economy Individuals, Groups, Organizations Organized and unorganized Political, ethical, criminal motivation, or just fun

12. Current threats - overview Caused by increased access Disclosure of information Corruption of information Denial of service Theft of resources Loss of credit or reputation Cyber Crime Spam Bulletproof Hosting Malware …? Availability Confidentiality Integrity New / Social Media?

13. What is Social Media

16. Weapons of Social InfluenceSocial Media ??? • Social influence versus … what? • What’s a weapon, social, influence, media? • What is not socially influencing people? • Social Media • Why should I care? • The Social Media Landscape 2012 • The myth of the power of Social Media • What’s in it for NATO and for the Military • Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats • Requirements

17. Weapons of Social Influence Social Media ??? • What’s a weapon? • What’s social? • What’s influence? • What’s media? • So what..?

18. The changing character of Media Operations Information as Business Information in Business Information to Influence Combat Support  Joint Enabling • The War Correspondent • One on many • Delayed, newspaper / voice, still imagery • The Embedded Journalist • The trusted source • Control the uncontrollable • Live, moving imagery • The CNN-Effect • Natochannel.tv • Citizen Journalism and Social Media • Many on many

19. Starting a conversation.

20. Why should I care..?

21. Starting a Conversation • Word of Mouth  World of Mouth • Connectivity more important than content • Trust to people rather than to content • Audience will verify ‘facts’ • Democratizing Communications • Officials lie • A power to consider • New..?

22. There is more in it • Public Relations • Customer Service • Loyalty-building • Interaction and Collaboration • Networking • Thought-Leadership • Customer Acquisition … making friends

23. Social Media and the [US] Military US DOD Social Media Website http://www.defense.gov/RegisteredSites/SocialMediaSites.aspx USAF Navigating the Social Network, Mar 2012 US Army Social Media Handbook, Jan 2011 NATO ACO Dir 95-3 Social Media, Dec 2009

24. ACO Dir 95-3 Social Media • a means by which internal and external communications and messaging can be enhanced. • a powerful means by which commanders can outline their broad intent and promote the concept ofMission Command. • tools that have the potential to support development of new business processes which could provide enhanced organisational agility while reducing bureaucracy and manpower requirements.

25. for the Military • The brutal simplicity of thought • 6 principles for SUCCESs-ful messaging • V.I.T.A.L. for success (by David Bailey MBE) • Video • Images • Text • Audio • Links Debbie Weil: Social Media 101

26. Link Analysis

27. Social Media Landscape WIIFY

28. Most commonly used HQ IM Plan Debbie Weil: Social Media 101

29. The grey side of Social Media • Information overload  IKM • Non credible sources  INTEL • Loosing control  COS/J3 • IM Plan • OPSEC • We must replace the delusion of control by reality of influence. • Sharing information is a responsibility rather than a risk. • Code of Conduct

30. What Social Media is NOT • Magic or miracle • Expensive … compared to costs of not engaging in Social Media • Difficult to learn • A military capability • Purely a Public Affairs tool • Subject to education or individual training in NATO • Considered in comprehensive operations planning ACT

31. Social Media SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

32. Options for the Military • Operational relevance! • Propaganda, information … evidence • Active or passive? • Engage … and get feedback • Effective..? • Target Audience..? • Deception..? • Information gathering & exploitation • Social / Human Network Analysis • Sell / share own ideas

33. Requirements • Research • DOTMLPFI* • Bravery, courage, engagement, and enthusiasm • Resources • People • Time • Room / Infrastructure • $$$ • Trust & Empowerment • Education & Training * Doctrine, Organisation, Training, Materiel, Leadership Development. Personnel, Facilities, Interoperability.

34. Conclusion • Sexy tool • Nice to have rather than need to have • Analysis and assessment required to figure out operational relevance • Effectiveness • Challenging to measure • Sufficient resources required • Integrated full spectrum Media Operations • Supporting behavioural change • To inform is to influence (Joel Harding)

35. WeaponsofSocialInfluence Cyber, Social Media, and the Future of Media Operations (C) 2013 by LTC U.M. Janßen, NSO/JOPS – janssen.ulrich@natoschool.nato.int Anti - Gov Pro - Gov