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Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to Warming

Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to Warming. Greg McCabe U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado Dave Wolock U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas. The Colorado River Basin. Streamgage at Lee’s Ferry. Source: D. Alles, 2007.

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Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to Warming

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  1. Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to Warming Greg McCabe U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado Dave Wolock U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas

  2. The Colorado River Basin Streamgage at Lee’s Ferry Source: D. Alles, 2007

  3. The 20th century included the wettest and 3rd wettest periods in the Upper Colorado River Basin during the past 500 years 20th century 1 2 3 Water Year Flow (million acre feet) tree ring reconstruction for Upper Colorado River basin Source: Steve Gray, University of Wyoming

  4. Increasing water demand is stressing the Colorado River water supply, even during one of the wettest centuries. Colorado River water supply minus consumptive use and losses, 1906-2004 20 15 10 Million Acre Feet 5 0 -5 -10 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 1915 Calendar Year Source: Glen Canyon Institute, March 2005

  5. Are recent dry conditions in the UCRB anomalous, or more reflective of conditions experienced during previous centuries? June 29, 2002 Lake Powell December 23, 2003 photos by John Dohrenwend, Southwest Satellite Imaging

  6. Issues and concerns for the Colorado River Basin } Potential natural shift to drier conditions + Increased risk of water shortages Increased water demand + Continued warming

  7. Issues and concerns for the Colorado River Basin } Potential natural shift to drier conditions + Increased risk of water shortages Increased water demand + Question:What is the sensitivity of water supply to increases in temperature? Continued warming

  8. Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  9. Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  10. Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  11. Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  12. Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  13. Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  14. Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligations of the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998 Risk of Failure (percent of years) McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  15. Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligationsof the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998 20th century Risk of Failure (percent of years) McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  16. Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligationsof the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998 20th century, T+0.86oC 20th century Risk of Failure (percent of years) McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  17. Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligationsof the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998 20th century, T+2oC 20th century, T+0.86oC 20th century Risk of Failure (percent of years) McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  18. Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligationsof the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998 driest century from tree ring record, T+0.86oC 20th century, T+2oC 20th century, T+0.86oC 20th century Risk of Failure (percent of years) McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  19. Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligationsof the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998 driest century from tree ring record, T+0.86oC 20th century, T+2oC 20th century, T+0.86oC driest century from tree ring record, T+2oC 20th century Risk of Failure (percent of years) McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

  20. Is a drier West on the horizon?

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