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The Transition to Electric Bikes in China

The Transition to Electric Bikes in China. History and Key Factors for Rapid Growth. BAQ 2006, Dec 14 Jonathan Weinert, Inst. of Transp. Studies UC-Davis Ma Zedan, Tsinghua University Christopher Cherry, UC-Berkeley. Outline. E-bike Background History Key Factors Technical Economic

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The Transition to Electric Bikes in China

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  1. The Transition to Electric Bikes in China History and Key Factors for Rapid Growth BAQ 2006, Dec 14 Jonathan Weinert, Inst. of Transp. Studies UC-Davis Ma Zedan, Tsinghua University Christopher Cherry, UC-Berkeley

  2. Outline • E-bike Background • History • Key Factors • Technical • Economic • Political • Other • Conclusions

  3. Motivation: • Successful & FAST adoption of a new transportation technology due to air quality concerns 2. Apply lessons to: • Other technologies • Other countries

  4. Methodology • Existing Literature • Interviews: • 23 e-bike companies, 4 factory visits, 5 dealers, 12 users, 1 gov’t rep. • Surveys • 1,000 e-bike users in Shanghai, Kunming, and Shijiazhuang (Weinert, Ma, Yang, Cherry 2006, Cherry and Cervero, 2006)

  5. E Bike Background Insert pix

  6. E-bike Background • Definition: 2-wheeled vehicle (2WV) propelled by electricity and (sometimes) human power. Bicycle-style: Scooter Style:

  7. E-bike Growth in China Jamerson, F. and Benjamin, E., 2004 Electric Bicycle World Report, 7th Edition with 2005 update, 2005

  8. E-bike Pros and Cons 1. Cherry, Weinert, Ma (2006)

  9. History • Phase 1: (1980s) • Technology sub-par • Phase 2: (early 90s) • Technology better, but not as good as incumbent • Phase 3: (late 90s-present • Technology “competitive” with incumbent • Incumbent crippled by regulation (The Harding Effect) • Other factors

  10. E-bike Industry 1998: 10 companies 2005: 498 registered (1,000-5,000 unofficial) Why?: mature, simple technology, weak IP enforcement Size: 10- 200,000 bikes/year Profit margin: 6%

  11. The Key Factors

  12. Key Factor 1: Technology Batteries Type: • Valve-regulated lead-acid • Replaced liquid electrolyte batteries Motor Type: • Brushless motors • Longer life, lower maintenance, more power

  13. How has e-bike technology improved? Weinert, Ma, Cherry (2006)

  14. Key Factor 2: Economics • Economics Compact car

  15. Economic/Market Factors • 2002-06: Gasoline prices rose by 45%(Shanghai) China National Statistics Report (2005)

  16. Key Factor 3: Policy Factors • Gasoline scooters bans: • 1994 Tianijn • 1996 Shanghai • 1998 Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Suzhou • National E-bike standards (‘99) • The “pedal” loophole: create uniform specs for BSEB and SSEB • Other loopholes (speed, weight, power) • Nat’l Road Transportation Safety Law (‘04) • Gave e-bikers right to use bike lane • Gave e-bike industry more confidence

  17. E-bikes: a Tale of Two Cities • Beijing: • 2002, issued e-bike ban effective 06 • 2006, amidst strong oppostion, reversed decisions • Strictly enforces standards, SSEBs < 5% • Shanghai • Loosely enforced standards, SSEBs >70% • Banned gasoline scooters 1998

  18. E-bikes growth compared to other 2WVs (Shanghai) Kang, 2004

  19. How have regional policy differences affected e-bike sales?

  20. 4. Other Factors • Liberalization of the housing market (started in mid-1990s) • SARS: early 2003 • Abnormally high summer heat wave (2003) • Why did sales spike

  21. Conclusions • Technology • Battery life, energy density, motor efficiency • Macro-economics • Incomes rose, share spent commuting rose • Industry: • Low barriers to entry, more entrants, falling costs • National and Local policies • Product standards --> loopholes (SSEB) • Road space

  22. So What Was It?… • The technology • The market • Or the policy • Or the timely confluence of all three???

  23. Acknowledgements Research Supported by: • ITS-Davis (Dr. Joan Ogden & Dan Sperling) • Hong Kong Fok Ying Tung (Huo Ying Dong) Education Foundation, Project No. 94027 • ITS-Berkeley Center for Future Urban Transport-A Volvo Center of Excellence • Presentation available at www.jonathanweinert.com/presentations

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