Why Transition Studies?

1. Why Transition Studies? Putting the Eastern European transitions into a wider perspective of regime change Nordic-Baltic-Russian Network of Transition Studies Workshop 2006 Vello Pettai, Department of Political Science, University of Tartu

2. Democracy’s Three Waves L: Haiti, Sudan, Suriname K: Bulgaria, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mongolia, Namibia, Nicaragua, Panama, Papua New-Guinea, Romania, Senegal J: Burma, Fidji, Ghana, Guyana, Indonesia, Lebanon I: Nigeria H: Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, India, South-Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Turkey G: Botswana, Costa Rica, Gambia, Israel, Jamaica, Malaysia, Malta, Sri Lanka, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela F: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania E: East Germany, Poland, Portugal, Spain D: Argentina, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Hungary, Uruguay C: Austria, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway B: Chile A: Australia, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, New-Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Great Britain, USA (Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, p. 14)

3. Democracy as Normative Standard • History is not ‘over’(Fukuyama), but democracy (even if only electoral) is a central international measure of political legitimacy in our era • membership in international organizations • conditionality for development aid • foreign policy priority: ‘regime change’

4. Political science is democracy • Modern political science (e.g. ‘comparative politics’) is fundamentally concerned about democracy, its functioning and ultimately its fostering • even studies of non-democracies are just that: ‘non-democracies’, i.e. defined in relation to democracy • cultural, religious, historical essentialisms are not seen as plausible approaches to making sense of politics

5. Four educational & research tasks • what is democracy vs. other regimes? • ‘regime theory’: conceptual framework of regimes • static boundaries • how does democracy come about? • ‘regime transition theory’: causal models of regime change • dynamic models • practical advice

6. Four educational & research tasks • how to consolidate democracy? • types of consolidation • economic change • retrospective justice • how to compare post-communist change? • what is special about Central and Eastern Europe?

7. 1) Regime Theory • Linz and Stepan (1996), Table 3.1

8. 2a) Cycles of Regime Transition crisis-breakdown non-democratic regime type young democracy non-democracy international influences economic factors democratization liberalization

9. 2b) Practical advice Regime & Opposition: -transition will not last: seize the opportunity -the future of both sides depends on agreement -resist more hard-line or extreme elements -your agreement will be the only alternative; hardliners and radicals can not offer anything -when in doubt. compromise crisis-breakdown Soft-liners: -secure your political base -maintain backward legitimacy -shift constuencies -be prepared for extreme moves -lead from strength -keep expectations low -encourage responsible opposition -create sense of inevitability Opposition: -focus attn on illegitimacy -encourage disaffection, defections -cultivate generals -practice and preach non-violence -seize all chances to express oppo., including elections -develop contacts with outside world -promote unity among oppo. -be prepared quickly to fill vacuum Soft-liners: -maintain control over regime -surprise with concessions -get security services to agree to nego. principle -enhance stature and position of preferred oppo. leader -establish confidential and reliable back-channels to oppo. -secure rights for oppo. in future regime young democracy non-democracy democratization liberalization S. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, 141-2, 150-1, 162-3.

10. 3a) Types of Consolidation A. Schedler, “What is Democratic Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy, 1998, pp. 91-107

11. 3b) Economic challenges democracy & market economy democracy & market economy reform new democracies & market economy reform different new democracies & market economy reform

12. 3c) Retrospective justice amnesty  amnesia PLAYERS victims perpetrators property restitution, compensation judicial trials legal ‘detotalitarization’ MEASURES truth commissions lustration opening secret files political exposing collaborators recognition, memory Adapted from: C. Offe and U. Poppe, 2005, pp. 153

13. 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE • non-democratic regime type • authoritarian vs. post-totalitarian • economic system • capitalism vs planned economy • level of economic development • weakly industrialized vs industrialized • class structure of society • multi-layered vs flattened

14. 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE • multiethnicity • homogeneous vs heterogenous societies • civil society • strong vs weak • the role of the masses • occasional vs decisive • international influences during liberalization • limited vs background setter • international influences during democratization • moderate vs extensive

15. 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEE • state identity • marginal vs liberation, independence • change in elites • often limited vs often very extensive • main tasks of democratization • regime change (+ econ. stabilization) vs (‘triple-’) transformation of society • successive vs simultaneous

16. Other fields and foci • modern European history and the Cold War • transition economics • anthropology of transition • memory and transitional justice • life stories and individual-level memory research TRANSITION STUDIES HAS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO!