Brazil: Economic Ooutlook, Opportunities and Challenges

1. Brazil: Economic Ooutlook, Opportunities and Challenges Andrea Goldstein

2. Brazil has resumed growth after a long hibernation, and is bound to grow above the global average over the coming years

3. GDP per capita (constant prices 2009) GDP per capita has been increasing since 2004 Source: WDI - World Bank

4. GDP per capita growth (%) The growth trend is positive since early the 2000s Source: WDI - World Bank

5. Schooling Source: Barro and Lee 2011

6. Productivity – growth rate 2000-2009 Source: Wilson 2011

7. GDP performance by sector – 1995=100 Source: Central Bank of Brazil

8. Manufacturing value added 2011 (% GDP) Source: World Bank

9. Trade openness - % GDP Source: World Bank

10. Exports – share (%) Source: MDIC

11. Export coefficient and import penetration - manufacturing Source: CNI

12. Export and import – main partners, % total Export destination Import origin Source: MDIC

13. Brazil-China trade

14. Recent growth performance Average 1.7% Average 3.5% Average 4.6% Average 4.7% After the currency crisis of 1998, a macro policy tripod was introduced: fiscal responsibility law, inflation targeting and floating exchange rate Source: IBGE and Ministry of Finance *forecast

15. Recent growth performance Decomposition of GDP growth Source: IBGE

16. Falling income inequality is boosting consumption Growth rate of per capita income (%) – 2001-09average Source: IBGE

17. Job creation is on the rise Net, private sector jobs, thousands Source: Ministry of Labor

18. Falling unemployment Unemployment rate – record lows August, 2003 July, 2012 Source: IBGE

19. Brazilian population (millions) Source: FGV * Based on PNAD (IBGE) data An increasing middle class is feeding the domestic market Brazil: world’s seventh-largest domestic market

20. Fast credit expansion Source: Central Bank of Brazil

21. Navigating an increasingly complex world • Slow recovery in the US • Crisis in the Euro zone • Slowdown in China and other emerging economies • Rising geopolitical risks (protectionism, Northeast Asia, in oil countries) • Capital market distortions and uncertainties associated to highly heterodox policies, e.g. Qes and Abenomics • Risk aversion on the rise • Slowdown in trade, capital flows and FDI

22. Output growth forecast – 2013 Source: WEO Oct 2012, IMF

23. Brazil: Economic indicators 2013 Source: Citi Research (August 2012)

24. Sources of future growth Domestic demand, but also … • Increasing competitiveness • Investments • Well regulated financial sector -- banking system not exposed to toxic assets

25. Competitiveness is on the move • 23 new Innovation Institutes • 43 new Technological Centers • Sectorial Innovation Funds • 4 million people in vocational training per year • Science without Borders – 100,000+ scholarships abroad in engineering and other tech. areas • MNCs state-of-the-art innovation labs • PISA-OECD – “Brazil, a successful reformer” • “The federal government has launched a major effort to improve education, increasing spending in classrooms and on teacher salaries and providing extra help for poorer families in order to get children into classrooms. By setting quality targets and leaving schools free to choose how best to achieve them, its National Education Plan has transformed the country into a laboratory of best education practices.” OECD

26. Other policies that will enhance competitiveness • Electricity tax cut and new regulatory framework • Payroll tax cuts • Temporary and targeted business tax cuts • Huge investments in public services • Concessions and PPPs – ports, railways, roads, airports • Active exchange rate policy • SELIC down by 500 b.p.

27. New sources of savings and long-term funding • New long-term funding instruments, secondary market, buy out markets • New public pension fund (FUNPRESP) and rapid expansion of private pension funds • FDI has been picking up • US$ 66 billion in 2011 • 10% of total going to developing countries

28. The interest rate is declining Source: Central Bank of Brazil

29. Growth Acceleration Program 2 - PAC 2 • Electric Energy • Ports • Airports • Highways/Railways • Urban Mobility • 2014 World Cup • 2016 Olympic Games

30. Investment perspectives are firm Investment outlook 2012-2015 Source: BNDES

31. Thew role of BNDES Forecast BNDES disbursements and approvals (US$ billion) Source : BNDES. *not including Petrobrás disbursements. **projection

32. Counter-cyclical role, e.g. 2008/09 • Strong support to SMEs • Infrastructure – about 1.5% of GDP • Equity financing • Innovation • Environment • Start-ups, especially in tech. areas • Venture capital • Export finance

33. Is future growth sustainable? Sound fiscal conditions and room to maneuver Net public debt excludes assets and liabilities of Petrobras and Eletrobras Source: National Treasury

34. Sound external vulnerability indicators (% GDP) Source: Central Bank of Brazil

35. Rising investment rate (%) Investment will keep growing at a stronger pace than GDP Source: IBGE. *Projections - Finance Ministry

36. Social inclusion will sustain the domestic market Poverty rate – (%) share of population Source: FGV

37. Risks • China/Asia slowdown • Stagnation in the US and Europe • Protectionism, uncertainties and market distortions created by unconventional policies • Tightening of international credit

38. The way forward – challenges and reform agenda • Accelerate labor productivity • Increase savings and investments • Improve competitiveness in manufacturing • Tackle infrastructure bottlenecks • Accelerate the transition towards a knowledge-based economy

39. Structural reforms • Diversify sources of long-term funding • Foster innovation • Fiscal reform – ICMS (VAT) • Pension reform • Labor legislation reform • Diversify exports and reduce dependency on commodities

40. Conclusions • Domestic market will enlarge further • Investments and increasing competitiveness will also drive growth • Expanding investment opportunities in several areas

41. A bumpy road ahead: poor international environment and uncertainties • But plenty of room for policy activism at the Government disposal • Government is aware of the need to address a reform agenda to foster competitiveness and to foment sustained growth

42. Obrigado!!