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U.S.A. and Canada Forecast Assumptions

U.S.A. and Canada Forecast Assumptions. US economy grows 3.5% this year avg. 3.4% to 2010 Canadian economy avg. 2.7% growth Interest rates average 3.8% this year rising to 4% by ‘07 to ’10 in Canada – rising to 4.5% by ’06 through ’09 in US C$ to remain around $0.83US over forecast period.

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U.S.A. and Canada Forecast Assumptions

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  1. U.S.A. and CanadaForecast Assumptions • US economy grows 3.5% this year avg. 3.4% to 2010 • Canadian economy avg. 2.7% growth • Interest rates average 3.8% this year rising to 4% by ‘07 to ’10 in Canada – rising to 4.5% by ’06 through ’09 in US • C$ to remain around $0.83US over forecast period.

  2. Alberta Forecast Assumptions • Investment growth fuels economy • Population growth avg. 2.2% in ’06 and 2% for balance of period. • Alberta Unemployment falls to 3.9% in ’06 & ’07 before rising somewhat • Inflation increases to 2.5% in ’06 – falls to avg. 2.1% through to ’10

  3. Oil & Gas Prices • Oil US$59 /barrel WTI in ’06 dropping next year to $50 – averaging $45 for balance of forecast period • Gas US$9.50/MMBTU in ’06 falling by $1 per year to $6.50 by ’09 then slight recovery.

  4. Investment Expenditure Components • Residential Investment • New homes • Renovations • Non-Residential Investment • Engineering Construction • Building Construction • Machinery & Equipment

  5. Housing Starts & Household Formation (000’s)

  6. Non-Res. Building Construction Investment (1997 Millions)

  7. Engineering Construction Investment ($1997 Millions)

  8. Oil Sands Investment($2005 Millions)

  9. Are There Enough Workers? • By late 2007 to early 2008 Alberta will not have enough skilled workers in Industrial Trades to meet the needs on projected Engineering Construction Projects • Are there enough in Canada? • What about the rest of the World?

  10. Irving Oil Projects

  11. Total Labour Force Retirements (000’s)

  12. Maximize our Resources • Train more supervisors • Bring women into the trades • Utilize aboriginal labour • Promote the trades to young people or underemployed • Hire more apprentices and starters

  13. What Else Can We Do? • Work with other Provinces and HRSDC • Promote Red Seal and equivalency assessments • Facilitate inter-provincial mobility • Provide upgrading & training • Identify areas with unemployed trades

  14. Open Alberta to the World • Open Canada to skilled trades immigration & promote Alberta as a destination • Utilize the Provincial Nominee program • Identify sources of skilled workers in other Countries and prepare for them • Plan for coordinated use of Temporary Foreign Workers

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